Assessment of risk associated with road infrastructure development in the developing countries (original) (raw)
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Reviewing the Challenges of Achieving Sustainable Road Infrastructure in Developing Nations
IJMER, 2022
I. INTRODUCTION Transportation has been with man for ages and has evolved to ease human existence. Movement of man, goods and provision of services is part of daily activities on earth. Hence, the need for a clear and sustainable path to convey people, their goods, products and rendering of services to where needed inter or intra connectivity, cannot be over emphasized for urbanization and population growth (Wang, Xue, Zhao, & Wang, 2018). Road transportation is a major bedrock for national development, the transportation industry contributes immensely to national social and economic growth by enhancing faster, cheaper, and safer conveyance of people, goods, and services. It also aids firsthand valuable communication path by ensuring demand and supply are achieved as planned(Mustapha, 2011). A good transportation network promotes collaboration, spread of people and increased exchange, as production reaches consumers timeously, safer, and overall cost of production is reduced.(Naazie, Braimah, & Atindana, 2018).In Malaysia, exchange of information and knowledge has been recorded to have been enhanced through safer, faster and effective road infrastructural network as trained workforces can actually engage in far-flung areas without an itch while the village residents are able to absorb talents from well informed experts from the urbanized cities who visits and work in their environment, this helps in promoting exchange of ideas, culture, one-on-one communication and improved overall economic advancement(Naazie, Braimah, & Atindana, 2018). Despite the high dependence of people on good transportation, a high-rate poor road infrastructure is still recorded, especially in developing and underdeveloped countries. The impact of road quality is expected to be of positive value to the community and overall residents. However, road infrastructure has exhibited negative impact especially on the environmental stability through various level and degrees of pollution, change in climatic condition, safety, socioeconomic , and health challenges. These effects directly impact the geospatial condition and livelihoods of the people(Meijer, Huijbregts, Schotten, & Schipper, 2018). Several factors contribute to the ABSTRACT Construction of road network has been one of the earliest engineering skills of men towards easing the movement of people, good and services. This act has gained revolutionary advancement over the years and has indeed connected people, enabled faster delivery of goods and services, influenced other economic sectors, and promoted sustainable living to a great extent. However, there are challenges in experiencing the expected planned transportation networks. Indeed, scholars have quarried and have made meaningful expositions on the causes and possible solutions to the problem but there has not been comprehensive research combining all the causes of road failure. This study, hence, presents a review of road construction challenges with the aim that actors in the industry would be guided and have a single framework to consult while considering future projects in the construction of road infrastructures. Using relevant literatures, the study investigated project failure in road construction. The results of this study showed that, although many variables contribute to road project failure, but disasters are majorly due to inflation rate, delay in payment, design changes during construction, soil conditions, lack of resources, inadequate skills and experience, unfavorable environmental conditions, political interference, poor planning and coordination, corruption and nepotism, procurement delays, poor work ethics, poor project management, budget overruns, poor risk and safety management, poor communication, community and residents actions, poor maintenance culture.
Identifying infrastructure risk factors in Africa
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The paper aims to provide a critical overview of the infrastructure risk factors in African countries performed within the research project "SaferAfrica-Innovating dialogue and problems appraisal for a safer Africa". The project is funded by the European Commission's Horizon2020 research and innovation programme. Both macroscopic (generic level) and microscopic (infrastructure element level) potential risk factors were examined and discussed. The macroscopic infrastructure risk factor analysis was based on WHO mortality data and revealed a weak but existent relationship between an extensive road network and fatality rates in African countries. On the other hand, the microscopic infrastructure risk factors analysis, based on technical reports and scientific papers, showed various potential factors, such as low road width, curve radius, low median width, absence of street light etc. Although some research has been carried out in the field of infrastructure risk factors and road safety, the major identified drawback is the lack of available data. Therefore, it is strongly suggested to validate the empirical findings with real-African data. Such an analysis accompanied with reliable and accurate data consists the basis for identifying priority areas for road safety actions and interventions.
The paper is aimed at outlining an approach for Quantitative Risk Assessment employing stochastic analysis (with a triangular distribution) so as to determine the combined influence of the dictating parameters on probabilities. It is appreciated that in the perspective of Road Transport Development Projects, and more specifically the Economic Analysis carried out in Feasibility Studies for Road Improvement and Rehabilitation Projects, such dictating parameters are Traffic and Project Cost. Accordingly the paper aims at an approach for determining the impact (on Traditional Economic Analysis Instruments like EIRR, NPV) under a combined influence of the aforesaid two parameters. Such analysis requires treading a step beyond that what is required when probabilities are ascertained separately, and is the focus of this paper.
2019
Trans Papua corridor highway is now an important highway, predictable way Trans Papua will experience overcapacity in the future. To overcome this situation the trans-Papua road building is planned. The investment of highway construction will always be involved in risk with certain scale, it is necessary to do the risk analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the risk, measuring of risk probability point and risk impact and risk test by performing simulations using @Risk For Excel software. This research was conducted using a survey method and interview with respondents. The survey was conducted in three phases, namely: beginning survey, preliminary survey and detailed survey. Based on research conducted identified four risk factors are financing risk, construction risk, equipment risk and force majeure. These four risks are identified in the medium risk category. The influence level of risk impact to the increase of construction investment budget plan trans-Pa...
Direct risk factors and cost performance of road projects in developing countries
Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, 2019
Purpose Globally, road projects are notorious for riskiness, which often results in cost overruns. In developing countries, these risks are amplified by economic instabilities and institutional failures. Majority of road projects in these countries are awarded to notedly inept indigenous contractors. Currently, research on the relationship between risks and cost performance of road projects has predominantly focussed on the client’s perspective. Effects of risks on contractors’ cost performance (profit) are inadequately investigated in literature. The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between direct risks and cost performance of road projects by indigenous contractors of developing countries from the contractors’ perspective. Design/methodology/approach The multivariate structural equation modelling technique was used to analyse purposively obtained data from indigenous contractors that recently completed road projects in Nigeria. Findings It was observed that a...
2019
The transportation service of the land, sea and air transportation of Papua Province is still very low, due to geographical, topographic, soil conditions and social constraints that hamper infrastructure development. The development of the road network is only focused on meeting the accessibility needs of the production centers to the distribution centers. The phenomenon of inequality that occurs in the world and the territory of Indonesia also occurs in the province of Papua. The gap between regions can be seen primarily by the lagging regions of the Central Highlands of Papua with other regions, especially with the coast of the North Coast of Papua. Identified there are still 14 (fourteen) isolated points/areas, where the development has not touched at all (Regional Development Planning Board of Papua Province, 2007). Many obstacles faced in the implementation of road pavement projects in Papua Constraints encountered, among others, very difficult geographical conditions, unpredictable weather, material, and In addition, security problems and customary rights issues in Papua are also a constraint on the implementation of infrastructure development roads in Papua that have an impact on cost performance. Data collection was conducted on 45 construction service companies in Papua. The data used are primary data and secondary data. Primary data based on questionnaires and interviews, while secondary data based on data collected from various agencies, both government agencies and private agencies, namely Public Works, Central Bureau of Statistics, and others. From the results of this study there are five issues that are most considered to be the biggest risk that affects the time is the risk of uncertain weather, material damage to the project due to the transportation process, the dismantling of storage & the low quality of materials, the lack of expertise, the risk of political and social stability on site. The study in this research is an analysis of risk assessment on-time performance on road infrastructure development in Papua.