Comparison of Training Approaches for Photovoltaic Forecasts by Means of Machine Learning (original) (raw)
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SEST, 2019
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The growing interest in renewable energy and the falling prices of solar panels place solar electricity in a favourable position for adoption. However, the high-rate adoption of intermittent renewable energy introduces challenges and the potential to create power instability between the available power generation and the load demand. Hence, accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential to maintain system reliability and maximize renewable energy integration. The current solar PV power forecasting approaches are an essential tool to maintain system reliability and maximize renewable energy integration. This paper presents a comprehensive and comparative review of existing Machine Learning (ML) based approaches used in PV power forecasting, focusing on short-term horizons. We provide an overview of factors affecting solar PV power forecasting and an overview of existing PV power forecasting methods in the literature, with a specific focus on ML-based models. To further enhance the comparison and provide more insights into the advancement in the area, we simulate the performance of different ML methods used in solar PV power forecasting and, finally, a discussion on the results of the work. INDEX TERMS Artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, photovoltaic, power forecasting, renewable energy.
Investigating photovoltaic solar power output forecasting using machine learning algorithms
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Solar power integration in electrical grids is complicated due to dependence on volatile weather conditions. To address this issue, continuous research and development is required to determine the best machine learning (ML) algorithm for PV solar power output forecasting. Existing studies have established the superiority of the artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF) algorithms in this field. However, more recent studies have demonstrated promising PV solar power output forecasting performances by the decision tree (DT), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithms. Therefore, the present study aims to address a research gap in this field by determining the best performer among these 5 algorithms. A data set from the United States' National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) consisting of weather parameters and solar power output data for a monocrystalline silicon PV module in Cocoa, Florida was utilized. Comparisons of forecasting scores show that the ANN algorithm is superior as the ANN16 model produces the best mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2) with values of 0.4693, 0.8816 W, and 0.9988, respectively. It is concluded that ANN is the most reliable and applicable algorithm for PV solar power output forecasting.
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We compare the 24-hour ahead forecasting performance of two methods commonly used for the prediction of the power output of photovoltaic systems. Both methods are based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), which have been trained on the same dataset, thus enabling a much-needed homogeneous comparison currently lacking in the available literature. The dataset consists of an hourly series of simultaneous climatic and PV system parameters covering an entire year, and has been clustered to distinguish sunny from cloudy days and separately train the ANN. One forecasting method feeds only on the available dataset, while the other is a hybrid method as it relies upon the daily weather forecast. For sunny days, the first method shows a very good and stable prediction performance, with an almost constant Normalized Mean Absolute Error, NMAE%, in all cases (1% < NMAE% < 2%); the hybrid method shows an even better performance (NMAE% < 1%) for two of the days considered in this analysi...
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020
Integration of photovoltaics into power grids is difficult as solar energy is highly dependent on climate and geography; often fluctuating erratically. This causes penetrations and voltage surges, system instability, inefficient utilities planning and financial loss. Forecast models can help; however, time stamp, forecast horizon, input correlation analysis, data pre and post-processing, weather classification, network optimization, uncertainty quantification and performance evaluations need consideration. Thus, contemporary forecasting techniques are reviewed and evaluated. Input correlational analyses reveal that solar irradiance is most correlated with Photovoltaic output, and so, weather classification and cloud motion study are crucial. Moreover, the best data cleansing processes: normalization and wavelet transforms, and augmentation using generative adversarial network are recommended for network training and forecasting. Furthermore, optimization of inputs and network parameters, using genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization, is emphasized. Next, established performance evaluation metrics MAE, RMSE and MAPE are discussed, with suggestions for including economic utility metrics. Subsequently, modelling approaches are critiqued, objectively compared and categorized into physical, statistical, artificial intelligence, ensemble and hybrid approaches. It is determined that ensembles of artificial neural networks are best for forecasting short term photovoltaic power forecast and online sequential extreme learning machine superb for adaptive networks; while Bootstrap technique optimum for estimating uncertainty. Additionally, convolutional neural network is found to excel in eliciting a model's deep underlying non-linear input-output relationships. The conclusions drawn impart fresh insights in photovoltaic power forecast initiatives, especially in the use of hybrid artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms.
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Motivated by factors such as the reduction in cost and the need for a shift towards achieving UN's Sustainable Development Goals, PV (Photovoltaic) power generation is getting more attention in the cold regions of the Nordic countries and Canada. The cold climate and the albedo effect of snow in these regions present favorable operating conditions for PV cells and an opportunity to realize the seasonal matching of generation and consumption respectively. However, the erratic nature of PV brings a threat to the operation of the grid. PV power forecasting has been used as an economical solution to minimize and even overcome this limitation. This paper is therefore a comprehensive review of machine learning-based PV output power forecasting models in the literature in the context of Nordic climate. The impact of meteorological parameters and the soiling effect due to snow, which is unique to this climate, on the performance of a prediction model is discussed. PV power forecasting models in the literature are systematically classified into multiple groups and each group is analyzed and important suggestions are made for choosing a better model for these regions. Ensemble methods, optimization algorithms, time-series decomposition, and weather clustering are identified as important techniques that can be used to enhance performance. And notably, this work proposed two conceptual approaches that can be used to incorporate the effect of snow on PV power forecasting. Future research needs to focus on this area, which is crucial for the development of PV in these regions.
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Applied Sciences, 2020
Forecasting is a crucial task for successfully integrating photovoltaic (PV) output power into the grid. The design of accurate photovoltaic output forecasters remains a challenging issue, particularly for multistep-ahead prediction. Accurate PV output power forecasting is critical in a number of applications, such as micro-grids (MGs), energy optimization and management, PV integrated in smart buildings, and electrical vehicle chartering. Over the last decade, a vast literature has been produced on this topic, investigating numerical and probabilistic methods, physical models, and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. This paper aims at providing a complete and critical review on the recent applications of AI techniques; we will focus particularly on machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and hybrid methods, as these branches of AI are becoming increasingly attractive. Special attention will be paid to the recent development of the application of DL, as well as to the future...
Forecasting hourly short-term solar photovoltaic power using machine learning models
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Forecasting solar photovoltaic power ensures a stable and dependable power grid. Given its dependence on stochastic weather conditions, predicting solar photovoltaic power accurately demands applying intelligent and sophisticated techniques capable of handling its inherent nonlinearity and volatility. Controlling electrical energy sources is an important strategy for reaching this energy balance because grid operators often have no control over use patterns. Accurately forecasting photovoltaic (PV) power generation from highly integrated solar plants to the grid is essential for grid stability. This study aims to improve forecasting accuracy and make accurate predictions of solar power output from the selected grid-connected PV system. In this study, the weather data was collected on-site and recorded PV power from a 20 kW on-grid system for one year, and different machine learning techniques like deep neural networks, random forests, and artificial neural networks were evaluated and benchmarked against reference support vector regression model. With improvements in forecasting accuracy of 2 to 37% over the reference model at study location (22.78° N, 73.65° E), College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Anand Agricultural University, Godhra, India, simulation results showed that the random forest technique is effective for the forecasting horizons of 1 to 4 hours.
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Negative externalities of fossil fuels together with adjuvant features of solar energy is driving the global espousal of solar energy technologies. This article presents a forecasting model for photovoltaic (PV) power generation using real-time data analysis of two solar plants through machine learning time series model (MLTSM). The work focuses on critical factors such as predictive accuracy, residual distribution, RMSE values, data quality, and model suitability for forecasting. The findings demonstrate that the predictive model achieves an accuracy of 98% for Plant 1 and 91% for Plant 2. Overall, the MLTSM exhibits its effectiveness in enhancing PV power generation forecasting, thereby contributing to the attainment of energy security.