Observation of Large Scale Precursor Correlations between Cosmic Rays and Earthquakes with a Periodicity Similar to the Solar Cycle (original) (raw)
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2009
Muon detector has the potential to function as Nano Sensor to infer possible earthquake in earthquake prone areas. It has been observed that 30 to 36 hours before the occurrence of the earthquake the magnetic field (Kp) and electron flux (E-flux) of the Sun-Earth environment changes. Using Sun-Observatory-Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite data it is possible to monitor the fluctuation every 15 minutes interval. It has been observed that before the occurrence of earthquake, nanoparticle (muon) intensity reduces, while the atmospheric temperature rises along with the increase in Kp and E-flux values. After the earthquake the atmospheric temperature falls suddenly with the rise in cosmic rays and fall in Kp and E-flux values. It has been planned by IHY, NASA and UNBSS (United Nations Basic Space Sciences) to design and install basic hybrid SEVAN (Space Environment Viewing and Analysis Network) in 14 locations across the world. Cosmic Ray Division laboratory of Armenia will supply photomultiplier of similar standards to all these 14 locations including Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. These detectors will record and correlate the intensity of cosmic ray data to predict various environmental perturbations including earthquake. Based on this plan it was attempted to correlate Kp, Eflux and chages in environment in different locations across the world with variation of cosmic rays collected from existing muon detectors.
On the correlation between solar activity and large earthquakes worldwide
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Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognized to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant correlation of the global seismicity with one of the possible mechanisms has been demonstrated yet. In this paper, we analyze 20 years of proton density and velocity data, as recorded by the SOHO satellite, and the worldwide seismicity in the corresponding period, as reported by the ISC-GEM catalogue. We found clear correlation between proton density and the occurrence of large earthquakes (M > 5.6), with a time shift of one day. The significance of such correlation is very high, with probability to be wrong lower than 10–5. The correlation increases with the magnitude threshold of the seismic catalogue. A tentative model explaining such a correlation is also proposed, in terms of the reverse piezoelectric effect induced by the applied electric fi...
Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes
Geophysical Research Letters, 2013
1] We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by w 2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.
Possible connection between solar activity and local seismicity
Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Recently, much attention has been paid to the relationship between solar and seismic activities toward earthquake (EQ) prediction. Some researchers believe in the existence of a connection between them; however, others completely refuse the existence of such a connection. In this study, the correlation between solar disturbances and occurrence of EQs during two consecutive solar cycles (SCs) 23 & 24 from 1996 to 2019 was investigated to explore such a relationship. The study was performed on both global and local scales. On a global scale, we studied the temporal variations of EQs number and the corresponding solar activity, represented by sunspot number. On the other hand, we selected several seismic zones characterized with high seismic activities and shallow depth EQs. For each zone we examined the day-to-day variations in the number of EQs and explored the space weather “chain of action” from the Sun to Earth in order to examine whether these events have an influence to increase...
On the relation between solar activity and seismicity
International Conference on Recent Advances in Space Technologies, 2003. RAST '03. Proceedings of, 2003
Much attention is recently paid to the role of extraterrestrial factors in terrestrial seismicity, and to the possibility to assess the seismic risk. Seven centuries of records of ancient earthquakes in the Mediterranean region show that the century-scale variations in the number of strong earthquakes closely follow the secular cycle of solar activity. Two well expressed maxima in the global yearly number of earthquakes are seen in the 11year sunspot cycleonc coinciding with sunspot maximum, and the other on the descending phase of solar activity. A day to day study of the number of earthquakes worldwide reveals that the arrival to the Earh of high speed solar streams is related to significantly greater probability of earthquake occurrence. The possible mechanism includes deposition of solar wind energy into the polar ionosphere where it drives ionospheric convection and auroral electrojets, generating in 'turn atmospheric gravity waves that interact with neutral winds and deposit their momentum in the neutral atmosphere, increasing the transfer of air masses and disturbing of the pressure balance on tectonic plates. The main sources of high speed solar streams are the solar coronal mass ejections which have a maximum in the sunspot maximum, and the coronal holes with a maximum on the descending phase of solar activity. Both coronal holes and CMEs are monitored hy satellite-home and ground-based instruments, which makes possible to predict periods of enhanced seismic risk. The geoeffectiveness of solar wind from a coronal hole only depends on the position of the hole relative to the Earth, and for the CMEs an additional factor is their speed. It has been recently found that a useful tool in identifying the population of geoeffective CMEs is the detection of long-wavelength (decameter-hectometer) type I1 solar radio bursts, as the CMEs associated with them are much faster and wider than average.
On the relation between solar activity and seismicity on different time-scales
Journal of Atmospheric Electricity, 2002
Based on data for the ancient earthquakes in the Mediterranean region, it is shown that the long-term variations of the seismic activity are related to the secular solar cycle. In the 11-year solar cycle, a well-expressed maximum in the number of strong (M~7) earthquakes worldwide in the 20th century is found in the solar activity maximum, and a secondary oneon the descending branch of solar activity cycle coinciding with the period of the maximum of coronal holes-sources of high speed solar wind. In an attempt to identify the solar activity elements related to earthquake occurrence, the diurnal variations of the number of earthquakes are studied with respect to the days of arrival of high speed streams and it is found that the number of earthquakes during the days of the arrival of high speed solar wind and the days following right after them is significantly greater than on all other days.
Influences of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes
ABSTRACT This paper inspects possible influence of solar cycles on earthquakes through of statistical analyses. We also discussed the mechanism that would drive the occurrence of increasing of earthquakes during solar maxima. The study was based on worldwide earthquakes events during approximately four hundred years (1600-2010).The increase of earthquakes events followed the Maxima of Solar cycle, and also depends on the tectonic plate location. From 1600 until 1645 events increased during the Maxima in some of the tectonic plates as Pacific, Arabian and South America. The earthquakes analyzed during two grand solar minima, the Maunder (1645-1720) and the Dalton (1790-1820) showed a decrease in the number of earth-quakes and the solar activity. It was observed during these minima a significant number of events at specific geological features. After the last minima (Dalton) the earthquakes pattern increased with solar maxima. The calculations showed that events increasing during solar maxima most in the Pacific, South America or Arabian until 1900. Since there were few records during these three centuries we needed addi-tional analysis on modern data. We took the last four solar cycles events (1950-2010) and made similar calculations. The results agreed with the former calculations. It might be that the mecha-nism for the Sun-Earth connection relies on the solar wind speed. In both records (1600-1900) and (1950-2010) the results showed a significant increase in earthquakes events in some of the tectonic plates linked to solar maxima. The So-lar wind energy striking the Earth’s magneto-sphere affects the entire environment because the pressure on the region increases and the magnetosphere shrinks sometimes four Earth’s radii. This sudden compression causes earth-quakes in specific plates. During the times of solar minima the pressure from the solar wind on the earth decreases, then the magnetosphere expands and earthquakes happen in a different pattern according to the geological feature on earth’s surface less frequently. Solar driven events include coronal mass ejections (CME) and coronal holes, which are at a maximum during the descending phase of solar activity. The tectonic are important because there is he-terogeneity in the crust and the tectonic stress depends on each region. The geo-effectiveness of solar wind from a coronal hole only depends on the position of the hole relative to the Earth and for the CMEs an additional factor is their velocity. The influence of these solar events could be detected from electromagnetic varia-tions on the ground prior the earthquakes. The goal in this research was to show the solar events influenced the earthquakes and seis-mologic events following some special display and also how the Sun’s activity played to make earthquakes increase. This paper discussed details of this mechanism, calculations and as-sociated factors.
The sun as a significant agent provoking earthquakes
The European Physical Journal Special Topics
In this paper we provide significant evidence that the sun is a principal agent provoking seismic activity. In particular the aim of the studies presented is to examine the possible relation of the coronal hole (CH) driven high speed solar wind streams (HSSs) with seismicity We performed several statistical studies of solar space and seismological data between 1980 and 2017 as well as a study for a long time interval from the year 1900 until the year 2017. (A1) Concerning the period 1980–2017 among other results we found that the earthquakes (EQs) withM ≥ 83 between 2010–2017 (including the catastrophic earthquakes of Japan 2011 (M91) Sumatra 2012 (M86) and Chile 2015 (M83)) occurred during times of large coronal holes as seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite and were related with CH-driven HSSs observed by the ACE spacecraft several weeks or a few months before the EQ occurrences. (A2) Further research on the hypothesis of the possible HSS-EQ relationship revealed ...
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020
Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognized to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. We have recently demonstrated this observation can be explained by the correlation of global seismicity with solar activity. We inferred such a clear correlation, highly statistically significant, analyzing the ISI-GEM catalog 1996-2016, as compared to the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite data, reporting proton density and proton velocity in the same period. However, some questions could arise that the internal correlation of global seismicity could be mainly due to local earthquake clustering, which is a well-recognized process depending on physical mechanisms of local stress transfer. We then apply, to the ISI-GEM catalog, a simple and appropriate de-clustering procedure, meant to recognize and eliminate local clustering. As a result, we again obtain a non poissonian, internally correlated catalog, which shows the same, high level correlation with the proton density linked to solar activity. We can hence confirm that global seismicity contains a long-range correlation, not linked to local clustering processes, which is clearly linked to solar activity. Once we explain in some details the proposed mechanism for such correlation, we also give insight on how such mechanism could be used, in a near future, to help in earthquake forecasting.