Modeling the Spatial and Temporal Spread of COVID-19 in Poland Based on a Spatial Interaction Model (original) (raw)
2022, ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
This article describes an original methodology for integrating global SIR-like epidemic models with spatial interaction models, which enables the forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in Poland through time and space. Mobility level, estimated by the regional population density and distances among inhabitants, was the determining variable in the spatial interaction model. The spatiotemporal diffusion model, which allows the temporal prediction of case counts and the possibility of determining their spatial distribution, made it possible to forecast the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic at a regional level in Poland. This model was used to predict incidence in 380 counties in Poland, which represents a much more detailed modeling than NUTS 3 according to the widely used geocoding standard Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics. The research covered the entire territory of Poland in seven weeks of early 2021, just before the start of vaccination in Poland. The results were verifi...
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