Russia-Ukraine War: Lesson for A Paradigm Shift in Addressing Food Insecurity in Africa (original) (raw)
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Russia-Ukraine War, its Impacts on Food Security in Africa
Global Journal of Social Sciences Studies
The study examines the pattern of food inflation in Africa, the extent to which Russia-Ukraine war impacted food inflation in Africa and find out whether the war going on between Russia and Ukraine is likely to instigate social unrest in Africa. The study was a longitudinal panel design. Three research questions guided the study. The population comprised 39 time series data points which spanned January 2019 to March 2022 on food inflation for the 54 African countries. A sample size of four countries comprising of Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Morocco were purposively selected. Data were sourced from Trading Economics database and analyzed using descriptive analysis trend analysis, mean, and percentage. Results showed that Nigeria recorded the highest food inflation rate relative to the other sampled countries. Morocco recorded the least food inflation rate. However, Morocco and Kenya were struck the most by food prices as a result of the war. The study also found out that the con...
Research Gate, 2022
In 1980s, famine began to strike the Sahel with apocalyptic force as rural livelihoods in Africa have been and to a large degree still are marked by abject poverty, malgovernance, corruption and loss of social capital. Moreover, development efforts, frustrated by the complex and uncertain nature of the expected processes of change, have mired the continent further. While it is still predominantly characterised by rural production systems and culture, there are still relatively strong endogenous cultures, but their long-term exclusion from political power has prevented them from being such a link, rendering them helpless to present viable policy alternatives. Recently, Africa has become the target of industrialised and emerging economies to buy or lease large tracts of farmland across the continent to guarantee their own food security. Today, more than 75 speakers told the UNSC in a ministerial-level open debate on conflict and food security of a global food crisis, already impacted by the pandemic and climate change, that is being driven to famine levels worldwide by the war in Ukraine. The issues of inquiry are set in a premise on why Africa is famished and how can it get out of this cycle of human deprivation, auguring on why Africa cannot feed itself, what are the factors that hider investment in food security and what are the factors that can promote food self-sufficiency. The hypothesis hones on the fact that the Malthusian theory, "population growth will always tend to outrun the food supply and that betterment of humankind is impossible without stern limits on reproduction", does not apply to African production systems. The 'Africa Feeds Itself' claim must be contingent on dependency alleviation. Africa has to use this prospect to meet the SGDs Goal 2. Catalysing positive change of food security will entail new laws that govern foreign investment in agriculture and enhancing sustainable domestic investment in agriculture. The tragedy, which took such a heavy toll of life over the past years, has highlighted the fundamental weakness of Africa's strategies in coping with poverty and disasters. The need for collective learning about our developmental responses, and the responsibility to those whose suffering provided the basis for that learning will never be more urgent than it is now. 'Lest We Forget' could stand as the maxim of the 21 st century, the demanding standards of policy crafting have to be met within a context of constantly changing contexts in global economics, climate change and conflicts, which dictate changing strategies and practices. Keywords: Africa, abject poverty, food security. Ukraine, grain exports. SGDs Goal 2, commercial agriculture, foreign investment laws,
The Politics of Food Security in Africa: The Case of East Africa
In the last five years there has been an upward rise in the global demand for food that has led to food insecurity characterized by price volatility, price hikes, food riots, as well as loss of bio diversity and farm land. Of the nine billion population of the world, it is estimated that one billion is currently food insecure with the majority living in developing countries. Changes in climatic conditions, hikes in fuel prices and the impending force of globalization, has exposed poor countries in Africa to a food crisis problem that has led to what many have termed as the ‘food bubble’. The United States, world hegemonic power that is meant to protect the world’s poor and hungry, is currently leading in the campaign of converting world grain that is corn to fuel (ethanol) cars and automobiles. This comes even after there is a massive shortage of world food grain and the problem thereof arises when the hungry have to compete with cars to secure food. The dynamics of world politics remains a feature that is rarely pointed out in addressing the food insecurity problem as many take it to be a benign factor. Focusing on Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, this study analyzes the implications of politics on food security conundrum in the African context. The primary motivation for conducting this research is to gain a deep understanding of the threats posed by political actions, motivations and policies of various actors and institutions and the implications it has had on food security. The means of collecting and analyzing data used in conducting this study was through secondary sources such as relevant research projects, international organization reports, published books and online journals.
Current State of Food Insecurity as Effect and Cause of Conflict in Africa
2004
A rmed conflicts frequently lead to the destruction of food systems. Often, warring parties manipulate starvation as a deliberate tactic, using their control over access to food to attract and reward friends and humble and punish enemies. Such conflicts are “food wars,” not only because hunger is used as a weapon but also because food insecurity is both an effect and cause of conflict. In February 2004, United Nations agencies calculated that over 45 million people in developing countries experiencing or recovering from conflict were in need of food and other emergency humanitarian assistance (see table). More than 80 percent of those affected lived in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Food Insecurity and Conflict Events in Africa
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between food insecurity and conflict events short of war in Africa, taking account of a host of mediating factors, including the degree of inequality, the level of development, democratic quality, quality of governance and the degree of government expenditure, which we incorporate into our analysis. Our results suggest that food price volatility does contribute significantly to conflict events measured by political events in Africa (ACLED). Greater democracy can engender more conflict, but in a non-linear fashion. The broader V-DEM participatory index of democracy also encourages more protest. Our governance variables are significant, emphasising the salience of state capacity in this regard. An innovation of our study is the inclusion of inequality. We deploy two metrics of vertical inequality: the GINI coefficient and the broader V-DEM egalitarian index. The GINI index of income inequality has a counter-intuitive statistically i...
Armed Conflict and Food Security in West Africa: Socioeconomic Perspective
International Journal of Social Economics, 2018
Purpose-West Africa represents a very good case of a sub-region currently plagued with the problem of food insecurity. Traditional theories have attributed the increasing food insecurity in the region to problems of poor governance, corruption and climate change. In view of the persistent and increasing nature of armed conflict in the sub-region, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of increasing armed conflict on food security in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member countries. Design/methodology/approach-The study utilized the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) to investigate the effect of conflict intensity on food security in the 14 member states of the ECOWAS using annualized panel data from 2005 to 2015. Findings-The findings reveal that armed conflict is a significant predictor of food security in West Africa. Research limitations/implications-The findings of the study bring to fore, the urgent need to rethink global initiative for combating food insecurity. The effort must also identify the causes of armed conflicts and design sound strategies for de-escalating the armed conflicts. Resolving the escalating armed conflict entails developing a conflict resolution framework that is extremely sensitive to the causes of conflict in Africa and adopting localized ex ante institutional diagnostics that would help in understanding the nature of the conflicts. Originality/value-Traditional theory perceives climate change, social injustices, property right, food insecurity, religious extremism and bad governance as the predictors of armed conflicts. In this study, the authors departed from the traditional theory by demonstrating that the nature and trend of armed conflict could also pose a serious threat to food security.
ECONOMIC EFFECT OF THE RUSSIAN UKRAINE WAR ON AFRICAN AGRICULTURE, TRADE, POVERTY AND FOOD SYSTEMS
Abdella Mohammed Ahmed (M.Sc.), 2024
On February 24, 2022, Russian troops entered Ukraine, sparking one of the most intense conflicts in recent years. As of September 2023, the conflict is still active and continues to raise concerns. Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus (which has been indirectly involved in the conflict) are key actors in world markets for two product groups critical for African countries: food (mainly cereals and vegetable oils) and fertilizers. With world markets already severely disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the new crisis in the Black Sea region, combined with climate shocks around the world, has further disrupted supply chains and increased prices. Since African countries are net food and fertilizer importers, the situation continues to raise serious concerns. This chapter offers an in-depth analysis of the conflict’s impact on Africa’s agricultural and food systems, with particular attention to the food and fertilizer sectors, the two main channels through which the shock has been transmitted. It is important to understand the extent of Africa’s exposure and vulnerability to the conflict’s impacts, including the impact on the ground in Africa in terms of lost or delayed agricultural production and increased food security risks. Moreover, this is an opportunity for policymakers not only to develop solutions that will mitigate the impact of the present crisis at the national, regional, and continental levels, but also to learn from the experience for future crises. As countries respond, it is also important to respect and improve the trade rules at the global level to avoid measures that may exacerbate the effects of the crisis. The chapter is structured as follows. In the next section, we set the scene by describing the key role played by Russia and Ukraine in world food and fertilizer markets along with the evolution of key commodity prices and the factors influencing them, such as measures restricting trade. In the following section, we examine Africa’s dependence on world markets for food and fertilizers, with a focus on the role of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. This provides an overview of how African countries will be impacted by the conflict, with the impact proportional to the magnitude of the shock and the degree of exposure faced by different countries. We next explore the impacts of the conflict, first on African agrifood systems, then on poverty. In the final sections of the chapter, we present an overview of policy responses put in place in Africa to cushion the shocks, and provide some recommendations and conclusions.
African journal of food, agriculture, nutrition and development, 2024
This study investigated food security governance in relation to taming the endemic starvation for peace and sustainable development in Africa. Food and nutrition security remain a multi-dimensional concept to ensure sustainability of the food system by 2030. It is a prerequisite to meaningful development as starving people are not capable of learning, innovating, nor prioritizing sustainable development. The COVID-19 preventive measures such as lockdowns and curfews, and persistent conflict in Africa, plunged deteriorating food insecurity into steep descent that necessitates collaborative efforts and partnerships to change the trajectory. The partnerships will restore livelihoods, and eliminate starvation, disease, abject poverty, wars and eventually restore peace. Data for the study were collected through systematic review of scholarly reviewed publications obtained from Access to Global Online Research in Agriculture (AGORA) database, University of Nairobi and Google search engines. The objectives of this paper, therefore, are to analyse underlying causes of persistent starvation in Africa, examine the factors that contribute to food security issues degenerating into conflict, and highlight the role of governance in finding lasting solutions to persistent starvation in the continent. However, it was revealed that, there is congruence that conflict and disease (COVID-19) may require more attention, with unanimous calls for the adoption of multilateralism in food governance as strategy to handle the nexus issues on food, water, energy, climate, economy, conflict and disease. Attention is also required to be focused on innovations supporting small-scale farmers, especially women farmers who are the most vulnerable, to benefit from autonomous measures (such as climate-smart agriculture practices) and adaptation to climate extremes. Conclusions are drawn on the best possible strategies available to mitigate endemic starvation in Africa, the urgent need for joint efforts to eliminate conflictinduced food insecurity, and emphasis on a systems approach to tackle nexus issues (Food-Water-Energy-Climate-Economy-Conflict and Disease) to ensure sustainable development.
Breaking the Links Between Conflict and Hunger in Africa
2008
International humanitarian relief and development operations provide opportunities to build peace and create sustainable food security, especially in situations where operations are carried out with explicit frameworks attending to human rights and sustainable livelihoods. Achieving lasting peace is a complex proposition because there is no single set of causes of conflict or a sure way to remove them. Nevertheless, there are food and agricultural policy actions that can foster peaceful outcomes that promote food security.