A Probabilistic Estimation of PV Capacity in Distribution Networks from Aggregated Net-load Data (original) (raw)
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2017 Asian Conference on Energy, Power and Transportation Electrification (ACEPT), 2017
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The increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generators has led to a shift of the operational policy of the distribution system operator (DSO) from passive to active intervention in distribution networks (DNs), where a centralized controller governs the operation of voltage regulation devices. However, the PV output uncertainty hinders the verification of the impact of PVs on DNs. Therefore, the hosting capacity (HC) analysis framework for PV penetration should reflect both the operational benefit of the DSO and the PV output uncertainty. Thus, in this study, a two-stage optimization-based framework is proposed to analyze the probabilistic HC for PV under active network management (ANM) of DNs. In the first stage, the optimal PV base capacity (PVBC) to maximize the sum of the HC for PVs is determined based on a heuristic optimization method; in the second stage, using the predefined load and PV output profile, the maximum available power generation curve for PVBC is calculated, and the maximum HC for PV is derived by the calibration of PVBC through a comparison with the actual PV generation profile curve. The proposed method considers the timeseries-based load flow results, reflecting the time-scheduling strategy by the DSO. Moreover, the uncertain characteristics of PV output are stochastically considered using a Monte Carlo simulation-based repetitive calculation approach. Case studies were implemented using the modified IEEE-123 test system, and the simulation results provided a quantitative comparison of the effect of the probabilistic HC improvement on the utilization of controllable resources and the centralized ANM by the DSO.
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2017 6th International Conference on Computer Applications In Electrical Engineering-Recent Advances (CERA), 2017
Popular alternatives of conventional sources are wind and solar. Still power system planners are uncertain in estimating the contribution made by the intermittent sources. Authors have made some effort to find out the available capacity of PV system depending on the global solar radiation intensity and the load met by the effective capacity. Load met by the PV system is termed as effective load carrying capability (ELCC), is estimated by comparing reliability indices loss of load expectation (LOLE) before and after adding PV system. A test system is considered to validate the proposed methodology.
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The installations of solar panels on Australian rooftops have been in rise for the last few years, especially in the urban areas. This motivates academic researchers, distribution network operators and engineers to accurately address the level of uncertainty resulting from gridconnected solar panels. The main source of uncertainty is the intermittent nature of radiation, therefore, this paper presents a new model to estimate the total radiation incident on a tilted solar panel. Where a probability distribution factorizes clearness index, the model is driven upon clearness index with special attention being paid for Australia with the utilization of bestfit-correlation for diffuse fraction. The assessment of the model validity is achieved with the adoption of four goodness-of-fit techniques. In addition, the Quasi Monte Carlo and sparse grid methods are used as sampling and uncertainty computation tools, respectively. High resolution data resolution of solar irradiations for Adelaide city were used for this assessment, with an outcome indicating a satisfactory agreement between actual data variation and model.
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PV hosting capacity (PVHC) analysis on a distribution system is an attractive technique that emerged in recent years for dealing with the planning tasks on high-penetration PV integration. PVHC uses various system performance indices as judgements to find an available amount of PV installation capacity that can be accommodated on existing distribution system infrastructure without causing any violation. Generally, approaches for PVHC assessments are implemented by iterative power flow calculations with stochastic PV deployments so as to observe the operation impacts for PV installation on distribution systems. Determination of the stochastic PV deployments in most of traditional PVHC analysis methods is automatically carried out by the program that is using random selection. However, a repetitive problem that exists in these traditional methods on the selection of the same PV deployment for a calculation was not previously investigated or discussed; further, underestimation of PVHC ...