APPLICATION OF MARKOV CHAIN MODEL IN CAREER PROGRESSION OF UNIVERSITY ACADEMIC STAFF: A Case Study of the Moi University-Eldoret, Kenya (original) (raw)

A Markov Chain Model Approach to Study Academic Promotions in Ghanaian Universities

Asian Research Journal of Mathematics, 2017

Promotions of academic staff in universities and analogous institutions remain crucial to the attainment of economic, environmental and societal objectives nationally and globally. Notwithstanding the benefits to institutions and individuals, little literature is available on outlay of promotions in universities in Ghana. This paper seeks to model promotions in Ghanaians universities as stochastic process to determine the underlining stochasticness under different conditions. Stochastic model with emphasis on the an absorbing Markov Chain, presented in its canonical form, was used to estimate the probability of lecturers attaining professorial status before retiring from service, and also the average length of time an academic

Markov Chain Analysis of Manpower Data of a Nigerian

… of Innovative Research in Engineering and …, 2011

The revolving door policy upon which the appointment of Vice-Chancellors of the Nigerian Universities is set appears to hasten the onset of dissonance and discontinuity in the general institutional arrangements and polity. Moreover, little effort appears to have been made to characterize manpower flow in relation to the manpower policies driving such system in order to ascertain if they are congruent with the raison d'être of the institutions. This study, which is an applied research, seeks to use the Markovian statistical tool to unravel the dynamics of staff stock and flow in a typical first generation Nigerian University with the ultimate intent of lucidly describing the existing manpower policy and pointing to its future direction. A forty-year data of staff transition within the six well defined states space, were transformed into frequency distributions which was ultimately used to estimate the transition probability matrix (TPM) that substantiated into a valued diagraph. Our research findings clearly suggest that about 47% of newly recruited staff exit the employment system through normal retirement while a disturbing 53% leave by either voluntary withdrawal or wastage. Possible attributions, or factors to blame, for this high attrition rate is principally staff seeking and discovering greener pastures, and disciplinary cases. The conclusion thereof is that, overall, in view of the favourable staff development programme, the existing manpower policy can be described as liberal and firm, and above all is tilted towards prime pumping capacity building. The research outcome, which is a strategic imperative for Nigerian universities, provides game-changing solutions and practical guides needful to align manpower policies to corporate goals.

A Markov Chain application to academic manpower planning

Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers

The application of Markov Chain modelling to manpower planning in military, government, and business is about two decades old. This paper discusses the application of Markov Chain to academic manpower planning in the University of Ibadan, Nigeria over a five-year planning horizon. It attempts to balance academic manpower supply forecasts with demand forecasts for each faculty⁄college of the university and recommends its planning implications. Under the assumption that there will be no drastic change in the promotion and recruitment policies as well as the salary structure of the university, the paper determines the corresponding cost structures of the forecast requirements.

Evaluation Of Career Patterns Of Academic Staff In A Faculty In The University Of Benin, Nigeria

2013

This paper examines the passage of academic staff in a faculty using an absorbing Markov chain. Two cases involving regardless of staff leaving intentions and staff unwillingness to leave are considered. Findings reveal that when the latter is the case, staff will look forward to staying perpetually in the system. On the case involving regardless of staff leaving intentions, expected waiting time for each grade in each department in the faculty is established while suggestions are made to prospective applicants. Keywords : Absorbing Markov Chain; Academic Staff; Career Pattern; Grade; Faculty.

Manpower planning using Markov Chain model

2014

Manpower planning is a planning model which understands the flow of manpower based on the policies changes. For such purpose, numerous attempts have been made by researchers to develop a model to investigate the track of movements of lecturers for various universities. As huge number of lecturers in a university, it is difficult to track the movement of lecturers and also there is no quantitative way used in tracking the movement of lecturers. This research is aimed to determine the appropriate manpower model to understand the flow of lecturers in a university in Malaysia by determine the probability and mean time of lecturers remain in the same status rank. In addition, this research also intended to estimate the number of lecturers in different status rank (lecturer, senior lecturer and associate professor). From the previous studies, there are several methods applied in manpower planning model and appropriate method used in this research is Markov Chain model. Results obtained from this study indicate that the appropriate manpower planning model used is validated by compare to the actual data. The smaller margin of error gives a better result which means that the projection is closer to actual data. These results would give some suggestions for the university to plan the hiring lecturers and budgetary for university in future.

Prediction of academic manpower system of a Polytechnic institution in Nigeria

This study is on makovian approach in studying the behaviour of the academic staff grade transition of a Polytechnic institution in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to determine the proportion of staff recruited, promoted and withdrawn from the various grade levels in the institution over the years and also forecast the expected manpower structure of the institution for 2014/2015 session. Secondary data obtained from the

Determination of the Period of Markov Chain’s Transition Matrix for Military Manpower Planning in Indonesian Navy

Jurnal Pertahanan

Human resources are very important organizational assets thus it is only natural that every organization gives more attention to human resource management, including the Indonesian Navy (TNI AL). The approach to human resource planning in military organizations focuses on two aspects, including long term planning with strategic objectives and short term planning with operational objectives. This long term planning is oriented towards the continuation of the procurement, availability, and balance of the number of personnel (human resources) in each rank in the future. An analysis to find out and plan the condition of Navy personnel in the future is needed, which is called the analysis of the Markov chain. There are at least three stages of the Markov chain process, including determining the state, the transition matrix, and the initial vector value. The transition matrix describes changes from one state to another state in the next period of time. The transition matrix formed is t...

Development of a Human Resources Transition Simulation Model in Slovenian Armed Forces

25 th international conference of the …, 2007

The paper describes development of continuous and discrete model of human resources transitions in large organization. The model considers eight different ranks. The calibration of the model was performed where the historical data was used to determine time constants of transitions and fluctuations. Basic simulation runs were performed in order to complete predictive validation of the model. Optimization of the model was performed by application of pattern search algorithm considering the key parameters. By this means the ...

Students Flow in Private Universities in Nigeria: A Markov Chain Modelling Approach

2016

The emergence of Private Universities in Nigeria is expected to help the flow and progression of students. Hence, this paper applies Markov Chain modelling to flows of students. The population of the study includes all students undertaking four-year programmes at a private University. The Faculty of Social and Management Sciences is chosen as a convenience sample. This Faculty has six departments for which secondary data are available for 2004/2005 to 2013/2014 sessions. Available data were analysed using the Matlab software. The results revealed that the probability of a student repeating a grade year influences the expected length of time of stay in the programme. Also, the study found that the average time a student spent at each level of the programme ranged from 1.14 to 1.43 sessions; the expected time it took a student to reach the wastage or graduation absorbing states ranged from a minimum of 1.4714 sessions (in 400 level) to a maximum of 4.7463 sessions (in 100 level). Fu...