Spatiotemporal Analysis of Water Balance Components and Their Projected Changes in Near-future Under Climate Change Over Sina Basin, India (original) (raw)
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Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change, 2015
Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, which affects the entire earth system in terms of negative impacts on food production, water supply, health, livelihood, energy, etc. The intent of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the water balance components of a data-starved Upper Baitarani River basin of Eastern India using ArcSWAT model. The ArcSWAT model was calibrated using SUFI-2 technique. The daily observed streamflow data from 1998 to 2003 were employed for calibration and those for 2004-2005 for validation. The calibration results were found to be satisfactory with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.88 and 9.70 m 3 /s for the daily time step, respectively. Also, the model was validated successfully for simulating daily streamflow (NSE=0.80 and MAE=10.33 m 3 /s). The calibrated and validated model was then used to evaluate basin response to the anticipated climate changes by the end of the 21st century. Twelve independent as well as twenty eight combined areaspecific climatic scenarios were considered in this study to evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the basin. The analysis of model results for the 12 Independent Climatic Scenarios indicated a reduction in the surface runoff ranging from 2.5 to 11 % by changing the temperature from 1 to 5°C, whereas the increase in rainfall by 2.5 to 15 % suggested an increase in surface runoff by 6.67 to 43.42 % from the baseline condition. In case of 28 Combined Scenarios compared to the baseline condition, the changes in surface runoff would vary from −4.55 to 37.53 %, the groundwater recharge would change from −8.7 to 23.15 % and the evapotranspiration would increase from 4.05 to 11.88 %. It is concluded that future changes in the climatic condition by the end of the 21st century are most likely to produce significant impacts on the streamflow in the study area. The findings of this study and those of follow-up studies in this direction will be useful for guiding suitable adaptation measures for sustainable water management in the basin in the face of impending climate change.
This study presents a comprehensive modeling environment of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), hydrological model. Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Program (SUFI-2) in SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) was used for automatic calibration. To examine this framework, a study on annual water balance components including precipitation, evapotranspiration and water yield as well as simulating stream flow in the Sina Catchment was conducted. Hydrological Simulations were conducted for Base Line, A2 and B2 scenarios using PRECIS HadRM3 data. Model performance was evaluated using several statistical parameters, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the normalized objective function. For calibration , R2 was obtained as 0.92 and for validation (1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990) it was 0.76. Similarly, NSE during calibration was 0.88 and during validation was obtained as 0.76. Calibration and validation results showed good agreement between simulated and observed data. The overall investigation carried out during this study indicates that the simulated Sina catchment is very sensitive to climatic variations. Precipitation trend is decreasing in A2 as compared to Base Line with slight overall increase whereas in B2 precipitation is increasing significantly. While only little changes can be observed in the rate of evapotranspiration, water yield is increasing drastically. The study of the discharge for a thirty year period under climate change scenarios showed that there was an increase in river discharge in future scenarios. Compared to the Base Line scenario , A2 and B2 scenarios (2071-2100) have much higher minimum and maximum annual discharges.
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 2018
This study evaluates surface runoff generation under climate change scenarios for Ilala watershed in Northern highlands of Ethiopia. The climate change scenarios were analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach of RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in R software packages. Hydrological response to climate changes were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The Soil Water Analysis Calibration and Uncertainty Program of Sequential Uncertainty fitting version 2 algorithm was also used to compute the uncertainty analysis, calibration and validation process. The results show that the minimum and maximum temperature increases for the future of 1.7 and 4.7 °C respectively. However, the rainfall doesn't show any significant increase or decrease trend in the study area. The 95% prediction uncertainty brackets the average values of observation by 71 and 74% during the calibration and validation processes, respectively. Similarly, R-factor equals to 0.5 and 0.6 during calibration and validation periods. The simulated and observed hydrographs of the total river yield showed a good agreement during calibration (NSE = 0.51, R 2 = 0.54) and validation (NSE = 0.54, R 2 = 0.63). From the total rainfall received only 6.2% portion of the rainfall was changed into surface runoff. The rainfall-runoff relationship was strongly correlated with R 2 = 0.97. Moreover, there had been also high evapotranspiration (ET) loss in the watershed; almost 75% of the total rainfall was lost as ET and 7.8% as ground water recharge. Due to an increase trend in temperature and evaporation loss for the future, the surface runoff also declined from 1.74% in RCP4.5 near-term to 0.36% in RCP8.5 end-term periods. This implies, proper planning and implementation of appropriate water management strategies is needed for sustainable water resources management in the region.
Impact of water demand on hydrological regime under climate and LULC change scenarios
Environmental Earth Sciences, 2018
The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/ land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990-2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.
Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed
Water Resources Management, 2009
With a yearly precipitation of 200 mm in most of the country, Jordan is considered one of the least water-endowed regions in the world. Water scarcity in Jordan is exacerbated by growing demands driven by population and industrial growth and rising living standards. Major urban and industrial centers in Jordan including the Capital Amman are concentrated in the northern highlands, mostly contained within the boundaries of the Zarqa River Watershed (ZRW). The ZRW is the third most productive basin in the greater Jordan River System. King Talal Dam was built a few kilometers upstream of the Zarqa-Jordan confluence to regulate its input mostly for the benefit of agricultural activities in the Jordan Valley. Concerns regarding the sensitivity of the ZRW to potential climate change have prompted the authors to carry out the current study. The methodology adopted is based on simulating the hydrological response of the basin under alternative climate change scenarios. Utilizing the BASINS-HSPF modeling environment, scenarios represent ing climate conditions with ±20% change in rainfall, and 1°C, 2°C and 3.5°C increases in average temperature were simulated and assessed. The HSPF model was calibrated for the ZRW using records spanning from 1980 through 1994. The model was validated against an independent data record extending from 1995 through 2002. Calibration and verification results were assessed based on linear regression fitting of monthly and daily flows. Monthly calibration and verifications produced good fit with regression coefficient r values equal to 0.928 and 0.923, respectively. Assessment based on daily records show much more modest r value of 0.785. The study shows that climate warming can dramatically impact runoffs and groundwater recharge in the ZRW. However the impact of warming can be greatly influenced by significant changes in rainfall volume.
Engineer, 2021
Kelani Ganga basin is the 7 th largest watershed in Sri Lanka, spanning over 2,292 km 2 and annually discharging 4,225 MCM flow to the sea. The basin currently hosts over 19% of the country's population and is the primary source of drinking water to over 4 million people living in Greater Colombo. Hence, the present study was undertaken to evaluate the Climate Elasticity of Runoff based on observed rainfall, streamflow data and simulated future streamflow using the SWAT Model in the Kelani Ganga basin, targeting sustainable management of basin water resources in future. The runoff elasticity (ε) is assessed by two methods for the present and 2040 scenarios. The selected three hydrometric gauging stations exhibit significant downward trends for the period of 1980 to 2016. An 80% of the rain gauges in the middle and upper basin show significant decreasing trends for high to low rainfall totals for Yala season as per Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) for the period of 1980 to 2016. Mass balance performance error (Er), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Coefficient of determination (R 2) are used as multi-objective functions and 8.90%, 0.65, 0.72 and 9.10%, 0.69, 0.69 are obtained for the above objective functions in SWAT model for the calibration and validation periods of 1970 to 1980 and 1982 to 1992, respectively. A 1⁰ C of temperature increase causes a 6.9% and 7.4% runoff decrease for the current scenario and it causes 0.4% increase and 1.5% decrease of runoff for Future Pessimistic Climate change Scenario as evaluated by the methods proposed by Zheng et al. [24] and Sankarasubramanian et al. [22], respectively. A 1% of rainfall increase causes a runoff increase of 0.002% and 0.370% for the current scenario and a runoff increase of 0.005% and 0.360% for 2040 as evaluated by the two methods, respectively. It is recommended to further analyse the water allocation model for better results with practical implementations by considering the identified trend after 1995 in future research for better planning and management of water resources in future.
Ecological Indicators, 2019
Assessing the impact of climate variability is important for water resources planning and management. In the present study, climate model data were utilized in conjunction with the hydrological model to analyze the effect of climate change on projected streamflow and groundwater recharge values for the Dwarakeswar-Gandherswari basin, India. Regional Climate Model (RCM) data [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6 and RCP 8.5)] were considered for future climate change scenarios. Five bias correction methods [linear scaling (LS), local intensity scaling (LOCI), power transformation (PWTR), distribution mapping (DM) and variance scaling (VARI)] were applied for RCM based precipitation and temperature data. Projected Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) values were obtained from Dyna-CLUE model. Discharge data (1990-2016) was utilized for model calibration and validation purpose. Total twelve scenarios (4 RCPs per year for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080) were considered. The results showed increasing trend in simulated discharge for the months June to September and reverse trend for the months October to December. The results also showed that groundwater recharge increased for the maximum number of sub-watersheds for the interval 2016-2030 compared to 2016-2050 and 2016-2080 under all RCPs. Uncertainties in streamflow were quantified in terms of exceedance probability and recurrence interval. ALPHA_BF was the most sensitive parameter for the river basin. However, gross increase in groundwater recharge was observed for all the scenarios. These results can be effectively utilized for irrigation planning purpose.
Assessing Climate Change Effects on Water Balance in a Monsoon Watershed
Water
Understanding the changes on future water resources resulting from climate variations will assist in developing effective management strategies for a river basin. Our area of interest is the Osan watershed in South Korea, where the summer monsoon contributes approximately 60–70% of the annual runoff and precipitation for the country. We determined the effects that future climatic changes have on this area. To accomplish this, we made use of global climate models (GCMs). A total of 10 GCMs were downscaled with the help of climate information production tools. Coupled with the GCMs and the Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) model, three periods were used to assess these climate impacts. The baseline, mid-century (MC), and end-century (EC) periods include 1993–2018, 2046–2065, and 2081–2099, respectively. The entire process was performed using two scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Some of the statistical metrics used for model calibration and ...
Impact of climate change on water resources of upper Kharun catchment in Chhattisgarh, India
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2017
Study region: The Upper Kharun Catchment (UKC) is one of the most important, economically sound and highly populated watersheds of Chhattisgarh state in India. The inhabitants strongly depend on monsoon and are severely prone to water stress. Study focus: This research aims to assess the impact of climate change on water balance components. New hydrological insights for the region: The station-level bias-corrected PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) projections generally show increasing trends for annual rainfall and temperature. Hydrological simulations, performed by SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), indicate over-proportional runoff-rainfall and under-proportional percolationrainfall relationships. Simulated annual discharge for 2020s will decrease by 2.9% on average (with a decrease of 25.9% for q1 to an increase by 23.6% for q14); for 2050s an average increase by 12.4% (17.6% decrease for q1 to 39.4% increase for q0); for 2080s an average increase of 39.5% (16.3% increase for q1 to an increase of 63.7% for q0). Respective ranges on percolation: for 2020s an average decrease by 0.8% (12.8% decrease for q1 to an increase of 8.7% for q14); for 2050s an average increase by 2.5% (10.3% decrease for q1 to 15.4% increase for q0); for 2080s an average increase by 7.5% (0.3% decrease for q1 to 13.7% increase for q0). These overand under-proportional relationships indicate future enhancement of floods and question sufficiency of groundwater recharge.