Risk assessment in the aerospace industry (original) (raw)
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Integration of risk analysis methods in aerospace research projects
Independent Journal of Management & Production, 2022
Organizations are exposed to several types of risks, such as environmental, legal, operational, financial, and technological; that are subjected to epistemic uncertainty. In this context, a contemporary issue is how to deal with accidents, with greater difficulty in understanding the sociotechnical system, due to its complex and dynamic characteristics, in an attempt to prevent accidents based on components’ behavior. Although, for most complex systems and projects, a record of the exposure to hazards is incomplete or nonexistent, especially when it is highly innovative. This study developed a risk analysis framework for complex aerospace research projects by integrating different methods: problem structuring, safety control action analysis, and prioritization of results. Three methods are proposed: (1) Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) for initial review and understanding of the problem situation, and preliminary identification of hazards and losses; (2) Systems-Theoretic Process Anal...
Developing a Risk Assessment Methodology for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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Risk Based Decision Tool for Space Exploration Missions
AIAA Space 2003 Conference & Exposition, 2003
This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates. A separate "risk expert" mediates this process and incorporates the information obtained by the various subsystems to produce a report that reflects the weak links of the mission, the major risk elements for each phase, and the overall risk measure.
Easy Risk Assessment for Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Outline of the Method
Transactions on Aerospace Research
The key element of safety systems in air transport is risk management. The rules for the safety of unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations are established by the Commission Implementing regulations (European Union [EU]) and national regulations. Risk assessment is the foundation of all activities. The broadest scope is covered by the special category of flights for which the Joint Authorities for rulemaking on Unmanned Systems (JARUS) developed the Specific Operations risk Assessment (SORA) analysis. The primary purpose of the SORA analysis is to create a comprehensive safety portfolio, which is attached to the National Aviation Authority (NAA) application for permission to perform specific category flights. Aviation authorities may accept the use of other risk analysis methods to demonstrate risk reduced to a safe level. Easy risk Assessment (erA) for UASs is an attempt to determine the risk for UAS flights in a simple way by considering a range of factors influencing risk manage...
Risk management in the aeronautical industry: results of an application of two methods
Risk Analysis VI, 2008
This article presents the results of two risk management methods, applied in the aeronautical industry, during the development of an aircraft for the executive market. The first method is the risk management in accordance with the best practices of Project Management International (PMI), and the second is a proposal of risk management based on Multicriteria Fuzzy Analysis (MFA). The PMI method of risk management is already widely used by the market. Its terminology is quite similar to other international standards of risk management. The MFA risk management method is a new proposal that requires specialist opinions, through a questionnaire, to identify internal and external project risks, measuring their level of threat to the project success. The structure of the questionnaire follows Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) methodology of the PMI. This new approach generates indicators at three levels: operational, tactical and strategic, which facilitates the monitoring and the management of risks. Despite its complex mathematical base, the MFA method is easier to implement. Both methods reach a similar degree of risk indicators for the project; however, the MFA can be used in an earlier phase of the project, which can avoid some possible earlier risk entanglements. Due to the particularities of each method, both show important contributions to the project risk management. Therefore, complex projects should use both methods to achieve adequate risk management.
A methodology for realistic space launch risk estimation using information-fusion-based metric
Information Fusion, 2010
In light of the significant changes being observed in the US space industry, in terms of the increase share of commercial launches, the development of inland spaceports, and the emergence of new vehicle designs and propulsion systems, there is need to reassess launch safety. In this paper, several issues related to space launch safety are reviewed, one in particular being the use, as the main the safety metric, of the mean collective risk to the general public, also known as the expectation of casualties. A new, decision level, information-fusion-based metric is proposed, and through a detailed case study, its merit in terms of the quality and quantity of information it generates is illustrated. The need for a new metric is here advocated as a critical first step toward the necessary transition from a risk avoidance philosophy to space launch safety to a risk management philosophy.
Assessing the wide diversity of risk types in large and complex projects using the traditional hyperbolic iso-risks curves may seem a simplistic and reductive approach, and evaluating the risk factor through the multiplication of likelihood and severity parameters results in defining as dangerous those risks that are associated either with rare but devastating consequences or with probable but minor effects. In this work, the authors aimed at focusing on those risks that, despite their low occurrence probability, may significantly compromise a project result. To this extent, a different formula has been used to compute the risk factor, keeping into account risk detectability and evaluating the potential consequences in four different domains (cost, time, performance, reputation). This approach has been validated on the case of a large industrial project related to the launch of an innovative mobile telecommunications system, collecting the experts' opinions in a primary Italian firm in aerospace industry.
Proposal of a Systematic Approach to Risk Assessment and Management in Space Station
2019 4th International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS), 2019
International Space Station (ISS) is the state-of-the-art largest man-made habitable living space. This report is driven to study the complexities and smart ideas to tackle problems in terms of safety and maintenance of such orbiting habitable structure. The problems in space are mostly of different nature than that encountered here on Earth and therefore, different ways and tools have to be developed to solve such issues. Safety is of primary concern in human missions to space: this report tries to investigate safety criticalities, challenges in addressing them and how they could be solved or how they have been solved, from the point of view point of Safety. Both the technical as well as environmental challenges are important to be considered, and are considered. This report also aims to understand how safety can be quantified with a help of FMECA methology, thus, giving an idea to what type of failures are most vulnerable ones and how one can work to eliminate or if not, minimize it. Due to the fact that, the ISS consists of hundreds of thousands of components, only one of the subsystem (propulsion system) has been taken into consideration during the analysis. However, most of the major, systems, subsystems , and their components have been enlisted to better understand the important aspects of the space station.
Statistical Approaches to Aerospace Risk Management
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND EDUCATION IN THE AIR FORCE, 2022
Training staff on the safety line is essential to prevent and minimize losses of any kind. Safety culture is designed to motivate staff to identify risks of any kind, to report them to improve the quality of activities and to eliminate stress levels. This culture is mainly based on education focused on training courses, motivation, discipline, attitudes and understanding the concept that any member of an organization has the role of protecting and increasing the quality of life, of the goods that they exploit and that others will exploit. Understanding these concepts prepares a safe environment for everyone around you, increases trust in the collective and decreases the level of stress in carrying out activities.