Robust Portfolio Selection Problems (original) (raw)

Robust portfolio selection problems: a comprehensive review

Operational Research

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of recent advances in robust portfolio selection problems and their extensions, from both operational research and financial perspectives. A multi-dimensional classification of the models and methods proposed in the literature is presented, based on the types of financial problems, uncertainty sets, robust optimization approaches, and mathematical formulations. Several open questions and potential future research directions are identified.

Robust optimization approaches for portfolio selection: a comparative analysis

Annals of Operations Research, 2021

Robust optimization (RO) models have attracted a lot of interest in the area of portfolio selection. RO extends the framework of traditional portfolio optimization models, incorporating uncertainty through a formal and analytical approach into the modeling process. Although several RO models have been proposed in the literature, comprehensive empirical assessments of their performance are rather lacking. The objective of this study is to fill in this gap in the literature. To this end, we consider different types of RO models based on popular risk measures and conduct an extensive comparative analysis of their performance using data from the US market during the period 2005–2020. For the analysis, two different robust versions of the mean–variance model are considered, together with robust models for conditional value-at-risk and the Omega ratio. The robust versions are compared against the nominal ones through various portfolio performance metrics, focusing on out-of-sample results.

Portfolio Selection with Robust Estimation

Operations Research, 2009

Mean-variance portfolios constructed using the sample mean and covariance matrix of asset returns perform poorly out-of-sample due to estimation error. Moreover, it is commonly accepted that estimation error in the sample mean is much larger than in the sample covariance matrix. For this reason, practitioners and researchers have recently focused on the minimum-variance portfolio, which relies solely on estimates of the covariance matrix, and thus, usually performs better out-of-sample. But even the minimum-variance portfolios are quite sensitive to estimation error and have unstable weights that fluctuate substantially over time. In this paper, we propose a class of portfolios that have better stability properties than the traditional minimum-variance portfolios. The proposed portfolios are constructed using certain robust estimators and can be computed by solving a single nonlinear program, where robust estimation and portfolio optimization are performed in a single step. We show analytically that the resulting portfolio weights are less sensitive to changes in the asset-return distribution than those of the traditional minimum-variance portfolios. Moreover, our numerical results on simulated and empirical data confirm that the proposed portfolios are more stable than the traditional minimum-variance portfolios, while preserving (or slightly improving) their relatively good out-of-sample performance.

Robust portfolio optimization using second-order cone programming

Optimizing Optimization, 2010

Optimization maintains its importance within portfolio management, despite many criticisms of the Markowitz approach, because modern algorithmic approaches are able to provide solutions to much more wide-ranging optimization problems than the classical mean-variance case. By setting up problems with more general constraints and more flexible objective functions, investors can model investment realities in a way that was not available to the first generation of users of risk models. In this chapter, we review the use of second-order cone programming to handle a number of economically important optimization problems involving: • Alpha uncertainty • Constraints on systematic and specific risks • Fund of funds with multiple active risk constraints • Constraints on risk using more than one risk model • Combining different risk measures

Robust portfolios: contributions from operations research and finance

Annals of Operations Research, 2010

In this paper we provide a survey of recent contributions to robust portfolio strategies from operations research and finance to the theory of portfolio selection. Our survey covers results derived not only in terms of the standard mean-variance objective, but also in terms of two of the most popular risk measures, mean-VaR and mean-CVaR developed recently. In addition, we review optimal estimation methods and Bayesian robust approaches.

Stability advances in robust portfolio optimization under parallelepiped uncertainty

Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2017

In financial markets with high uncertainties, the trade-off between maximizing expected return and minimizing the risk is one of the main challenges in modeling and decision making. Since investors mostly shape their invested amounts towards certain assets and their risk aversion level according to their returns, scientists and practitioners have done studies on that subject since the beginning of the stock markets' establishment. In this study, we model a Robust Optimization problem based on data. We found a robust optimal solution to our portfolio optimization problem. This approach includes the use of Robust Conditional Value-at-Risk under Parallelepiped Uncertainty, an evaluation and a numerical finding of the robust optimal portfolio allocation. Then, we trace back our robust linear programming model to the Standard Form of a Linear Programming model; consequently, we solve it by a well-chosen algorithm and software package. Uncertainty in parameters, based on uncertainty in the prices, and a risk-return analysis are crucial parts of this study. A numerical experiment and a comparison (back testing) application are presented, containing real-world data from stock markets as well as a simulation study. Our approach increases the stability of portfolio allocation and reduces the portfolio risk.

Robust Optimization Approaches for Portfolio Selection: A Computational and Comparative Analysis

arXiv, 2020

The field of portfolio selection is an active research topic, which combines elements and methodologies from various fields, such as optimization, decision analysis, risk management, data science, forecasting, etc. The modeling and treatment of deep uncertainties for the future asset returns is a major issue for the success of analytical portfolio selection models. Recently, robust optimization (RO) models have attracted a lot of interest in this area. RO provides a computationally tractable framework for portfolio optimization based on relatively general assumptions on the probability distributions of the uncertain risk parameters. Thus, RO extends the framework of traditional linear and non-linear models (e.g., the well-known mean-variance model), incorporating uncertainty through a formal and analytical approach into the modeling process. Robust counterparts of existing models can be considered as worst-case re-formulations as far as deviations of the uncertain parameters from their nominal values are concerned. Although several RO models have been proposed in the literature focusing on various risk measures and different types of uncertainty sets about asset returns, analytical empirical assessments of their performance have not been performed in a comprehensive manner. The objective of this study is to fill in this gap in the literature. More specifically, we consider different types of RO models based on popular risk measures and conduct an extensive comparative analysis of their performance using data from the US market during the period 2005-2016. For the analysis, three different robust versions of the mean-variance model are considered, together with two other robust models for conditional value-at-risk and the omega ratio. The robust versions are compared against standard (non-robust) models through various portfolio performance metrics, focusing on out-of-sample results. The analysis is based on a rolling window approach.

Tight Bounds for Some Risk Measures, with Applications to Robust Portfolio Selection

Operations Research, 2011

In this paper we develop tight bounds on the expected values of several risk measures that are of interest to us. This work is motivated by the robust optimization models arising from portfolio selection problems. Indeed, the whole paper is centered around robust portfolio models and solutions. The basic setting is to find a portfolio that maximizes (respectively, minimizes) the expected utility (respectively, disutility) values in the midst of infinitely many possible ambiguous distributions of the investment returns fitting the given mean and variance estimations. First, we show that the single-stage portfolio selection problem within this framework, whenever the disutility function is in the form of lower partial moments (LPM), or conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), or value-at-risk (VaR), can be solved analytically. The results lead to the solutions for single-stage robust portfolio selection models. Furthermore, the results also lead to a multistage adjustable robust optimization...

Recent developments in robust portfolios with a worst-case approach

Robust models have a major role in portfolio optimization for resolving the sensitivity issue of the classical mean-variance model. In this paper, we survey developments of worst-case optimization while focusing on approaches for constructing robust portfolios. In addition to the robust formulations for the Markowitz model, we review work on deriving robust counterparts for valueat-risk and conditional value-at-risk problems as well as methods for combining uncertainty in factor models. Recent findings on properties of robust portfolios are introduced and we conclude by presenting our thoughts on future research directions.

An empirical comparison between robust estimation and robust optimization to mean-variance portfolio

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, 2017

Mean-variance portfolios constructed using the sample mean and covariance matrix of asset returns perform poorly out-of-sample due to estimation error. Recently, there are two approaches designed to reduce the effect of estimation error: robust statistics and robust optimization. Two different robust portfolios were examined by assessing the outof-sample performance and the stability of optimal portfolio compositions. The performance of the proposed robust portfolios was compared to classical portfolios via expected return, risk, and Sharpe Ratio. The aim is to shed light on the debate concerning the importance of the estimation error and weights stability in the portfolio allocation problem, and the potential benefits coming from robust strategies in comparison to classical portfolios.