Is a Copenhagen Climate Treaty Still Possible? Scientific Analysis Provides New Insights for Agreement and a Better Treaty for the Planet (original) (raw)
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Copenhagen commitments and implications: A comparative analysis of India and China
Energy Policy, 2010
Dynamic targets have been long advocated as a participatory tool for developing countries in climate change mitigation. Copenhagen commitments of India and China resume this trend after the unsuccessful attempt of Argentina a decade ago. However, linear intensity targets are prone to 'hot air' problems or non-compliance risks. Intensity targets of India and China are analyzed using their elasticity parameters. The relationship of these parameters to the structural nature of emissions and GDP profiles has been demonstrated and a method of comparing the probability indices of target achievement has been formulated in this paper, showing a lower probability for China compared to India. Similarly, a method of defining stringency factor for linear targets has been suggested and stringency factors evaluated for India (40%) and China (90%), which shows the relative stability of India's targets. This paper evaluates an energy-GDP-emissions index (EYE index) to indicate the extent of coupling/decoupling of economic growth from emissions. The three indices developed in this paper, namely, elasticity parameter, stringency factor and EYE index can be effectively used to analyze the economy-emissions relationships for policy making and target setting.
Fairness, Credibility, and Effectiveness in the Copenhagen Accord: An Economic Assessment
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
State-of-the-art literature on climate change policies has proposed numerous approaches for the Post-Kyoto agreement. However, in analysing the outcome of negotiations, the feeling is that a huge gap exists between policy makers and scientists. This paper tries to bridge this gap by providing a critical and comparative analysis of the Copenhagen Accord provisions, linking them to a part of the climate-economy literature. It assesses Copenhagen outcome in terms of economic efficiency, environmental effectiveness and political credibility. Our conclusion suggests that the Copenhagen Accord succeeded in considering some of the climate policy principles, namely credibility, equity and fairness. First, the change in political leadership indicates a more collaborative mood. Regarding equity and fairness, developing countries obtained an explicit commitment by developed countries for technology, but especially financial transfers, though on a conditional basis. The major limitation of the Accord is the way it addresses the trade-off between politically viability, thus implicitly fairness, and economic and environmental effectiveness. Therefore, future negotiations should deal with the eventuality of a global temperature increase above the 2 degrees, even in the presence of successful global mitigation.
2016
This paper focuses on the analysis of the multilateral regime of climate change from the perspective of the regimental complex. It examines the role of the BASIC countries in the signing of the new climate agreement in Paris and its relationship with traditional powers like the United States and the European Union. The role of the BASIC countries has been crucial to close a new deal, and in exchange for that power, the group has accepted two conditions: a bottom-up agreement and nationally determined contributions as a vehicle for climate action. Similarly, the diffusion of power in the international system means that although the triangle formed by the BASIC-EU-US has been critical to achieving a new climate agreement, other actors also played an important role in the negotiation process of COP 21.