Exchange rates and casualties during the first world war (original) (raw)
2004, Journal of Monetary Economics
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JMONECO.2004.02.001
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Abstract
for helpful conversations. I thank Richard Burdekin, Marc Weidenmier, and seminar participants at Yale and Rutgers for constructive comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Figures (15)
Figure 1: Monthly exchange rates normalized to have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one.
Figure 2: Daily exchange rates normalized to have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one.
and Nf; is a5 X 1 vector of martingale differences sequences whose elements satisfy assume each country-specific factor is serially correlated: and lags, with mean zero and variance one. Let {v,} denote the 5 x 1 vector of country-specific factors. I
![Next, let E[Y|X] denote the linear least squares projection of Y onto X, and let K, and , denote the](https://figures.academia-assets.com/99330886/figure_004.jpg)
](Next, let E[Y|X] denote the linear least squares projection of Y onto X, and let K, and , denote the
Figure 3: The one-step-ahead forecast of the common trend, f,, (solid line, left axis) for the five-country model, first principal component of the monthly exchange rates (dashed line, right axis), and first principal component of the notes in circulation (dotted line, right axis).
Common Factor, z, , and Second Principal Component for the Monthly Exchange Rates t? Figure 4: The one-step-ahead forecast of the common factor, 2,, (solid line, left axis) and the second principal component (dashed line, right axis) for the five-country monthly model.
Figure 5: The one-step-ahead forecast of the common trend, f,, (solid line, left axis) for the three-country model, first principal component of the monthly exchange rates (dashed line, right axis), and first principal component of the notes in circulation (dotted line, right axis).
Figure 6: The one-step-ahead forecast of the common factor, 2,, (solid line, left axis) and the second principal component (dashed line, right axis) for the three-country daily model.
Figure 7: British and German soldiers killed and wounded and French total casualties by month.
Figure 8: British and German soldiers missing and taken prisoner by month.
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