Modelling Approaches of Life Cycle Cost–Benefit Analysis of Road Infrastructure: A Critical Review and Future Directions (original) (raw)

The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2019

Ex-post evaluations of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) of transportation projects are scarce in the literature. If conducted frequently, they could reveal the extent to which objectives are achieved and may give inputs that can improve the quality of ex-ante BCAs. We first explain the usefulness of ex-post BCA evaluations of transportation projects, depending on which planning phase a project is in. We then perform ex-post BCAs on 27 Norwegian road projects that have been in service for at least 5 years and compare the results with the ex-ante BCAs that were presented to the decision-makers. We use two different measures of aggregating the magnitudes of accuracy; the Mean Percentage Error (MPE) and Mean Absolute Percentage (MAPE). Using MPE, we find that: (1) ex-ante BCAs underestimate the actual net present value (NPV) by 50% on average and, the NPV per dollar invested by a mere 0.14% points on average; (2) the traffic level and traffic growth rates are often underestimated ex-ante, leading to an underestimation of the benefits and; (3) construction costs are underestimated by 5% on average, which is too small to offset the observed underestimation of benefits. By default, MAPE shows higher values of inaccuracies implying that one should not be indifferent as to the measure used. Overall, the Norwegian exante BCAs perform fairly well. We urge that the authorities concerned must improve their traffic forecasts and construction cost estimates to assure that the ex-ante objectives are met. The upkeep of ex-ante data is essential to enable ex-post evaluation which, ceteris paribus, will enhance the transparency and credibility of BCA as an appropriate decision-making tool. 1. Introduction Decision-makers in the transportation sector rely on the expected benefits and costs that a given project should generate throughout its lifetime when making their decisions. To help aggregate such benefits and costs into a single measure of project worthiness, transportation economists/planners regularly conduct ex-ante Benefit-Cost Analyses (BCAs). Ex-ante means that the analyses are an integrated part of the planning process and that the analyses are based on forecasts, which may or may not match the real outcomes. An ex-ante BCA proceeds by first evaluating the expected change in the benefits and costs of an undertaking compared to a "do-nothing or do-minimum" situation, and all the benefits and costs are measured in monetary terms. For road projects in particular, the monetary benefits and costs include travel-time savings, reductions in accident costs, vehicle operating costs, environmental impacts such as increased/reduced noise from vehicles, and the investment and maintenance/operational costs of the

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Road Infrastructure Projects

Revista de Management Comparat Internaţional, 2022

The paper deals with the Cost-Benefit Analysis of road safety investment projects. Improving road safety can be much more effective when the data collected from road accidents can be merged with economic assessments based on the costs of the proposed interventions and the resulted benefits to society. In this paper, we performed such an evaluation for a list of black spots on the national road network in Romania, following the appropriate methodological literature, and based on statistics provided by the National Highway Company in Romania.

Highway Project Level Life-Cycle Benefit/Cost Analysis under Certainty, Risk, and Uncertainty: Methodology with Case Study

Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2009

One of the key steps in the highway investment decision-making process is to conduct project evaluation. The existing project level life-cycle cost analysis approaches for estimating project benefits maintain limited capacity of probabilistic risk assessments of input factors such as highway agency costs, traffic growth rates, and discount rates. However, they do not explicitly address cases where those factors are under uncertainty with no definable probability distributions. This paper introduces an uncertainty-based methodology for highway project level life-cycle benefit/cost analysis that handles certainty, risk, and uncertainty inherited with input factors for the computation. A case study is conducted to assess impacts of risk and uncertainty considerations on estimating project benefits and on network-level project selection. First, data on system preservation and expansion, usage, and candidate projects for state highway programming are used to compute project benefits using deterministic, risk-based, and uncertainty-based analysis approaches, respectively. Then, the three sets of estimated project benefits are implemented in a stochastic optimization model for project selection. Significant differences are revealed with and without uncertainty considerations.

Risk Analysis within Feasibility Studies: An Application to Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Construction of a New Road

Applied Mechanics and Materials, 2014

The present paper aims at testing new techniques of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), based on a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), to Cost-Benefit evaluation of transportation projects. Cost-Benefit analysis have been widely used for the evaluation of projects, especially in the phase of "feasibility study" in order to support decision makers in the choice between design alternatives compared to financial and socio economic performance indicators.However, the empirical experience has shown that investment appraisal can be affected by many elements of risk, due to system’s uncertainty and the multiplicity of interests involved [1,2] especially in a field such as the construction of a new road that will affect a community [3].Actually, the input and output variables of the model, can not always be determined with certainty by the analyst, but are influenced by elements of uncertainty due to numerous biases that "normally" connote a decision-making process in which mult...

User Costs in Road Life-Cycle Cost Evaluation and Optimisation

Optimizing life-cycle cost (LCC) of the Transportation Infrastructure is regarded as a strategic approach for achieving the sustainability of the infrastructure systems. An accurate approach based on life-cycle cost analysis for the operation management of Portuguese road infrastructures, characterised by concessions and sub-concessions, will undoubtedly bring advantages, supporting the decision-making and allowing an effective road asset management. The Portuguese experience with the life-cycle approach for the appraisal of road infrastructure-related investment decisions is very limited, and the consideration of user costs, providing quality service and allocating them a cost, has been neglected. This paper describes the initial main activities related to the definition and inclusion of road user costs (RUC) in the evaluation and optimization of LCC for the Portuguese trunk road networks. This aspect will allow a more accurate technical and economic planning of the maintenance and operation actions. Special attention is paid to RUC associated with the pavement condition and due to the occurrence of maintenance and rehabilitation actions of pavements in the road network (work areas). For the most common intervention scenarios, additional cost of vehicles operations and delay are analyzed applying international models, as HDM-4. A simplified model is proposed based on these results as well as on the Portuguese data. The final objective of the research is to include RUC in a life-cycle costs optimization model to identify the best maintenance programs, decreasing the total life infrastructure costs including individual and community RUC.

Evaluation of Road Infrastructure Projects: A Life Cycle Sustainability-Based Decision-Making Approach

Sustainability, 2021

Economic growth, social wellbeing, and infrastructure are strongly interrelated and jointly contribute to national development. Therefore, evaluation and selection of a road infrastructure project direly need a comprehensive sustainability assessment integrating holistic decision criteria. This study presents an elaborate life cycle sustainability-based project evaluation tool, comprising an assessment framework, an integration model, and a decision framework. In the first phase, a life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) framework for road infrastructure is established using mixed methods. In the second phase, interviews are conducted to obtain pairwise comparisons among impact categories and subjective reasoning of their priorities. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to develop the LCSA integration model. The minimum threshold limits of impact categories are evaluated and integrated into the proposed decision framework. Further, thematic and cross-sectional analyses ...

A Conditional Study on Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Roads

An economic analysis method referred to as Life-Cycle analysis (LCCA) isused to guage the cost-efficiency of alternatives supported World Wide Web present price (WWPV) conception. it's essential to judge the above mentioned cost aspects so as to get optimum pavement life-cycle prices. However, pavement managers ar usually unable to consider each vital component that will be needed for acting future maintenance tasks. Over the previous couple of decades, many approaches have been developed by agencies and establishments for pavement Life-Cycle analysis (LCCA). While the transportation community has progressively been utilizing LCCA as an important follow, many organizations have even designed laptop programs for their LCCA approaches in order to assist with the analysis. Current LCCA methods are analysed and LCCA software is introduced in this article. S ubsequently, an inventory of economic indicators is provided at the side of their substantial elements. assembling previous literature will help highlight and study the weakest aspects therefore on mitigate the shortcomings of existing LCCA methods and processes. LCCA research will become loads of sturdy if enhancements are created, facilitating personal industries and government agencies to accomplish their economic aims.

Sustainable Development Analysis and Extended Cost Benefit Analysis – A Promising Approach to Include Social Impacts and External Effects in Appraisal Procedures for Transportation Measures and Infrastructure Investments

2018

Traditional evaluation methods have considerable disadvantages. The result of a conventional CBA is based on the total costs and benefits of the investigated alternatives. The distribution of the costs and benefits among different social groups and other social impacts are neither calculated nor taken into account. Existing disparities are not considered and can be increased by a decision based on such an evaluation tool. In Austria, a new set of tools for the assessment of road infrastructure projects was developed which endeavours to overcome the above mentioned problems. This set comprises the eCBA (extended Cost Benefit Analysis) which includes the evaluation of the distribution of costs and benefits among different social groups, indirect third party effects (regional welfare caused by the investment) as well as the impact of induced/suppressed transport demand. The SDA (Sustainable Development Analysis) includes the three dimensions of the holistic term sustainability, social,...