PRECIS-model simulated changes in climatic parameters under various scenarios in different agro-climatic zones of Punjab (original) (raw)
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MAUSAM, 2021
A study was conducted to assess the projected changes in climatic parameters during 21st century in Punjab state. The CSIRO-Mk 3-6-0 model simulated data was downscaled from the website http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ for seven locations under four RCP scenarios. The two future periods, i.e., mid-century (MC: 2020-2049) and end-century (EC: 2066-2095) were assessed on annual and seasonal (kharif and rabi) basis. During mid-century the annual, kharif and rabi seasons maximum temperature is projected to increase from baseline period between 0 to 1.5 °C, 0.3 to 1.5 °C and 0 to 1.6 °C, respectively; minimum temperature to increase from baseline period between 1.1 to 3.1 °C, 0.1 to 4.8 °C and 0.3 to 1.8 °C, respectively but the rainfall to decrease from baseline period between 33 to 554 mm, 20 to 443 mm and 20 to 110 mm, respectively. During the end-century the annual, kharif and rabi seasons maximum temperature is projected to increase from baseline period between...
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR PUNJAB DURING 21ST CENTURY
The summary of the projected changes in climatic parameters in the Punjab state of India as simulated by by five GCMs (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, FIO-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR and Ensemble model) under four RCP scenarios in the mid (2020-2049) and end (2066-2095) of 21 st century are described below. Maximum temperature is projected to vary in the state from the baseline period.
Assessment of Climatic Parameters for Future Climate Change in a Major Agricultural State in India
Climate, 2021
The change in future climate will have a prominent impact on crop production and water requirement. Crop production is directly related to climatic variables. Temperature, solar radiation, wind, precipitation, CO2 concentration and other climatic variables dictate crop yield. This study, based on long-term historical data, investigates the patterns and changes in climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation) that would most significantly affect the future crop production in many parts of the world, and especially in India, where most farmers depend on rainfall for rice production. Statistical analyses—box and whisker plot, mean absolute error, Taylor diagram, double mass curve, Mann–Kendall trend test, and projected climate change—were used to assess the significance of the climatic factors for the purpose of agricultural modeling. Large variability in precipitation may cause the flash floods and affect the farming, and at the same time, increase in temperatur...
2020
A simulation study was conducted to analyse the effect of projected changes in climatic parameters on yield of cereal (rice, maize and wheat) crops in different agro-climatic zones of Punjab state. The summary of projected changes in temperature and rainfall (Table I) along with baseline (2010-2021) values during the growing season of respective crops in the state as simulated by Ensemble model under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) and three time periods (EC : 2030-50, MC : 2051-70 and LC : 2071-90) are given below: Projected changes in maximum temperature • Rice season-An increase in maximum temperature from the baseline (35.4 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 1.3 and 1.2 o C during EC, by 1.8 and 1.7 o C during MC and by 2.2 and 2.0 o C during LC. • Maize season-An increase in maximum temperature from the baseline (35.2 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 1.0 and 0.7 o C during EC, by 1.5 and 1.2 o C during MC and by 1.8 and 1.7 o C during LC. • Wheat season-A variation in maximum temperature from the baseline (24.9 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by-0.1 and-0.6 o C during EC, by 0.6 and 0.1 o C during MC and by 1.1 and 0.9 o C. Projected changes in minimum temperature • Rice season-An increase in minimum temperature from the baseline (24.0 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 4.1 and 3.8 o C during EC, by 4.7 and 4.4 o C during MC and by 4.9 and 5.0 o C during LC. • Maize season-An increase in minimum temperature from the baseline (25.7 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 2.6 and 2.4 o C during EC, by 3.2 and 3.0 o C during MC and by 3.5 and 3.6 o C during LC. • Wheat season-A variation in minimum temperature from the baseline (10.6 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by-1.1 and-1.5 o C during EC, by-0.5 and-0.8 o C during MC and by-0.2 and 0.1 o C during LC. Projected changes in rainfall • Rice season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (556 mm) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 137 and 148 mm during EC, by 94 and 107 mm during MC and by 88 and 48 mm during LC. 1 2 • Maize season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (524 mm) was observed under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 157 and 166 mm during EC, by 111 and 123 mm during MC and by 103 and 68 mm during LC. • Wheat season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (125 mm) was observed under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 67 and 67 mm during EC, by 67 and 68 mm during MC and by 72 and 66 mm during LC. Optimization of crop management practices for cereal crops in Punjab The yield of rice, maize and wheat were simulated using models (CERES-Rice, CERES-Maize and CERES-Wheat) with temperature and rainfall data predicted by the Ensemble model during the 60 years (2030-2090) time period. Later the crop models were used as a tool to identify/ fine tune agronomic practices for the sustaining high productivity of crops under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) of climate change during three time periods (EC: 2030-50, MC: 2051-70 and LC: 2071-90) in the state. The salient findings of the study (Fig I, II and III) are given below: Optimized crop management practices for rice crop • The suitable transplanting window will be from 26 June to 16 July in Punjab. • The suitable rice cultivar for the state under future conditions would be PR126. • The increased nitrogen application @155 kg/ha during suitable transplanting window. • The agroclimatic zone V (Abohar) was found as not suitable for rice cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Optimized crop management practices for maize crop • The suitable sowing window will be from 14 to 16 June in agro-climatic zone II and III and 5-20 May in agro-climatic zone V (Faridkot) of Punjab. • The suitable maize cultivar for the state under future conditions would be PMH1. • The increased nitrogen application @145-185 kg/ha during suitable sowing window. • The agroclimatic zone IV (Bathinda) and V (Abohar) were found as not suitable for maize cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Optimized crop management practices for wheat crop • The suitable sowing window was observed from 24 to 29 November in agro-climatic zone II, III and V of Punjab under futuristic climatic scenarios. • The suitable wheat cultivars for the state under future conditions would be HD2967 and PBW725. 2 3 • The increased nitrogen application @ 150-230 kg/ha during suitable sowing window. • In agro-climatic zone IV (Bathinda) none of the sowing dates were found suitable for sustainable wheat cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Table I-Baseline and projected temperature and rainfall during the crop growth season in Punjab Crop Baseline period (2010-21) Early century (2030-50) Mid century (2051-70) Late century (2071-90) RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 Maximum temperature (o C)
The changing climate pattern in terms of maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were analyzed based on relevant time series data/information for fairly long period of about four decades in Ludhiana district of Punjab using statistical tools such as coefficient of variation, graphical representation and samples mean (t-test) for periodical shifts. The study has brought out that during the last four decades, region experienced significant increase in average temperature (both maximum as well as minimum temperature) for the months of February, March, April, August and November. Similarly, months of May, October and December experienced significant increment of average minimum temperature. On the whole, consistent rise in average monthly temperature leading to enhanced level of warming has been observed. Regarding rainfall, various months observed with significant changes in rainfall were March, September, October, November and December. Among these, average rainfall in the months of March, November and December showed a significant decrease while September and October months showed a significant increase over the last about four decades. Monthly relative humidity increased in almost all months except April. In case such climate trend continues over the next few decades, may have detrimental effects on the agricultural output if suitable climate adaptive strategies are not put in place with top priorities in terms of suitable research and development.
Location specific climate change scenario and its impact on rice and wheat in Central Indian Punjab
Agricultural Systems, 2014
A study was conducted to (i) derive future modeled climate data for different locations, (ii) assess the impact of location specific climate change scenario on crop duration, yield, water and nitrogen-balance and-use efficiency of rice-wheat system and (iii) evaluate delaying of trans-/planting date of crops as adaptation measures. Results indicate that in mid century (MC) and end century (EC) time slice of the 21st century, rainfall and temperature would increase; crop yields (simulated with cropping systems simulation model) would decrease owing to shortening of crop duration. In MC (2021-2050) and EC (2071-2098), evapotranspiration, transpiration, drainage and irrigation requirement would decrease and soil water evaporation would increase. However, their magnitudes would vary with the location. The water use efficiency of rice and wheat crops would increase in MC. The agronomic efficiency of applied nitrogen is more in rice than that in wheat during present time slice (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and this difference would amplify in MC and EC. Nitrogen recovery efficiency is more in wheat and the difference would reduce in EC. Crop yield and water & nitrogen use efficiency reveal relations with time slice and soil profile characteristics of the location. Delaying trans-/planting of rice by 15 days in MC; and of wheat by 15-21 days in MC and EC emerged as the best adaptation measures to sustain yield of rice-wheat system at all locations.
Modeling Climate Change Projections for Ferozpur Sub-catchment of Jhelum Sub-basin of Kashmir Valley
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change
Aims: The study aimed at modeling the climate change projections for Ferozpur subcatchment of Jhelum sub-basin of Kashmir Valley using the SDSM model. Study Design: The study was carried out in three different time slices viz Baseline (1985-2015), Mid-century (2030-2059) and End-century (2070-2099). Place and Duration of Study: Division of Agricultural Engineering, SKUAST-K, Shalimar between August 2015 and July 2016. Methodology: Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling weather files (Tmax, Tminand precipitation). The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using Observed daily climate data (Tmax, Tmin and precipitation) of thirty one years and large scale atmospheric variables encompassing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the validation of the model, and the outputs of downscaled scenario A2 of the Global Climate Model (GCM) data of Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3 (HadCM3) model for the future. Daily Cl...
2009
The vulnerability to climate change is greater in developing countries like Indiawhich are mostly located in lower, warmer latitudes. Climatic data of different stations of Gujarat have been analyzed to ascertain the climatic change/variability in the state and its likely impact on crop production using crop models. The long period rainfall analysis showed slight increase in annual rainfall by 2.86 mm per year. The rainfall intensity in terms of daily maximum rainfall also showed increasing trend. The rate of maximum temperature increase was between 0.2 to 0.5°C per decade, maximum being in summer season. Similarly, the minimum temperature was found to increase but with slightly lower rate of 0.2 to 0.3°C per decade in different seasons. The calibrated DSSAT-3.5 models were used to simulate the wheat and maize yield under hypothetical weather condition that may be arising due to climate change. The climate scenario simulated for temperatures (± 1 to ± 3°C), radiation (± 1 to ± 3 MJm...
MAUSAM
The projected temperature, rainfall and solar radiation derived from four General Circulation Models namely CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, FIO-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR and Ensemble model under four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios were analyzed on annual basis for four agro-climatic zones of Punjab. The inherent bias in the simulated data was corrected by the difference method at monthly scale for maximum temperature, rainfall and at daily scale for solar radiation. In general, the temperatures are expected to increase linearly in future while the solar radiation and rainfall would decrease under the four RCP scenarios. Amongst the four models, the maximum temperature is predicted to increase from the baseline during mid/end century by 0.5 to 1.2/1.6 to 2.6 °C and minimum temperature is predicted to increase from the baseline during mid/end century by 1.1 to 2.6/2.7 to 4.1 °C by CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, respectively followed by IPSL-CM5A-MR model in decreasing order. The solar radiation predict...