Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing of Multi‐Decadal to Centennial Scale Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea (original) (raw)

2021, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology

Limited instrumental records of sea surface temperature (SST) have hindered our ability to fully understand the natural long-term climate variability driven by surface ocean-atmosphere interactions, particularly in Southeast and East Asia where approximately 30% of the world's population resides (Morton & Blackmore, 2001; United Nations, 2019). Recent modeling studies have begun to document the uncertainty in the centennial-scale behavior of SST in the Western Pacific Ocean and surrounding seas, further emphasizing our need to reconstruct ocean hydrography at a high temporal resolution over longer periods (Karnauskas et al., 2012; Samanta et al., 2018). Complicating our understanding of climate in the marginal seas of the Maritime Continent are the changing interactions between climate drivers of surrounding areas. Climate drivers in Southeast Asia and the marginal seas, including the South China Sea (SCS), are complex and operate at multiple frequencies. For example, the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) varies primarily on a seasonal timescale, whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) exert influence on interannual to interdecadal timescales, respectively. The EAM is defined by seasonal shifts in winds and moisture delivery to East Asia from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In the summer, winds blow from the Indian Ocean over the SCS onto the Asian continent, driving precipitation. In the winter, winds reverse, delivering cold, dry air from the Pacific Ocean across the East Asian continent to the SCS. These winds have a significant impact, driving seasonal changes in ocean circulation, temperature and precipitation (Lau & Li, 1984; B.