The Perfect Storms (original) (raw)
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In 2004 there was a fierce and intense debate in the Jamaican media in general and the major newspapers in particular about whether the Leader of the Opposition Portia Simpson-Miller who was then a government minister and member of Parliament (MP) acted inappropriately by abstaining on an Opposition resolution in Parliament criticizing a shortage of funds to the fire service. The purpose of this article is to deconstruct the representations of Portia Simpson-Miller’s abstention in Parliament in The Jamaica Gleaner and The Jamaica Observer newspapers in 2004 andwhat the representations reveal about Jamaican politics.
Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica
The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the JLP or the PNP winning the February 25, 2016 General Election? The data was drawn from election results and macroeconomic variables from 1962-2015; polls from 1976-2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements; and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory. Keywords: political forecasting, General Election, Jamaica, CHAMPSKNOW
Revista LatinoAmericana De Opinion Publica , 2022
Three econometric models were built to predict the 2020 General Election in Jamaica. These are the economics and security model (model1), the economics and security model with JLP leader acceptance (model 2), and the economics and security model with PNP leader acceptance (model 3). All three models accurately predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party. These models show how the macro-economy, security concerns and party leader popularity influence election outcome, with similar findings in the literature. However, there are peculiarities in Latin America and the Caribbean because the Jamaican voters respond to economic and security concerns in different ways than the voters in the global north. For e.g. increases in the debt to GDP ratio and the homicide rate predicted a JLP win. We therefore need to understand how voter microlevel characteristics, meso-level patterns of relationships and macro-level institutions influence election outcomes within and across Latin America and the Caribbean.
The Leader Filtration Process and the Low Impact Jamaican Prime Ministers
How can the two most recent Prime Ministers who have not rocked the policy boat with transformative public polices be explained? Simpson-Miller and Holness are different in terms of personality, gender, age, level of education and the circumstances that propelled them to office; but they have all been socialized the same way by their political party and the political system. These two Prime Ministers like Jamaican Prime Ministers in general, all came through the party structures and institutions and the wider political system from the bottom up. Holness and Simpson Miller like majority of Prime Ministers were filtered by the elites so they did not deviate from their predecessors, because the system blocks extreme leaders that are likely to be transformative. The JLP and PNP party structures and institutions and the political system filters out doers and keep survivors that it feels can win elections. Doers are extreme leaders that engage in spectacular policy solutions and equally spectacular policy failures. Extreme leaders when they get it right will transform the country unlike the modal (average) leader.
The Political Culture of Democracy in Jamaica: 2006
Boxill, I., Lewis, B., Russell, R. and Bailey, A., with Waller, L., James, C., Martin, P. and Gibbs, L. (2007). The Political Culture of Democracy in Jamaica: 2006, AmericasBarometer Study Series, Vanderbilt University and Latin American Public Opinion Project, 219 pages.
Probing Jamaica's Political Culture
Powell, L., and Bourne, P. & Waller, Lloyd. 2007. Probing Jamaica’s Political Culture. Kingston: Centre for Leadership and Governance (120 Pages)
Newspaper Representations of the Debates in the 2007 Jamaican General Election Campaign
This article deconstructs the newspaper representations of three debates held in 2007 during the Jamaican General Election campaign. The theory of social representation is used in this article to explain political behavior and outcomes. Representations are the images, words, symbols or phrases that are generated from people’s dialogic interaction which signify meanings. Content analysis of relevant articles covering the electoral campaign in the main print media in Jamaica forms the empirical basis for study. The majority of representations of the three main debates were negative, revealing that political manifestos were largely ignored and policy funding was not addressed. Significant issues such as crime, education, health, garrison politics, corruption and unemployment were inadequately addressed, and the wider global context of these matters were ignored. The consensus was that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won two of the three debates, notably the leadership debate in which the Leader of the Opposition, Bruce Golding MP performed more effectively than the then current Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller of the People’s National Party (PNP). Social representation theory is used to assess the types of political meanings generated by media coverage during the General Election. It is suggested that the perceived success of the JLP candidates in the main debates was an important contribution to the party’s overall electoral victory.