Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time (original) (raw)
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roceedings of International Workshop on Modelling Agroforestry Systems, CATIE, Costa Rica, 2008, 2009
"Climate variation and oscillating cycles between El Niño and La Niña have contributed to extreme variations in coffee production in Nicaragua, Central America. This has led to income of small farmers crashing from 2300oneyeartoonly2300 one year to only 2300oneyeartoonly600 the next. Projections of the impact of climate change on coffee in Mexico and Sao Paulo Brazil indicate drastic changes in coffee production with change in climate likely to occur this century. Models to predict changes in coffee distribution, production and quality need to be developed for Central America and other regions. Adaptation strategies include better information management about short-term climate variation, development of varieties to adapted to new climatic conditions, shade management systems with greater resilience to climate variation, greater water efficiency in production and processing, insurance mechanisms to enable producers bridge years affected by climate extremes and last but not least marketing strategies to deal with variability in production. The International Panel on Climate Change´s primary recommendation for adaptation is “Start Adapting Now”."
Sustainability
Several modelling tools reported the climate change impact on the coffee agrosystems. This article has adopted a systematic approach to searching out information from the literature about different modelling approaches to assess climate change impacts or/and adaptation on coffee crops worldwide. The review included all scientific publications from the date of the first relevant article until the end of 2022 and screened 60 relevant articles. Most results report research conducted in America, followed by Africa. The models assessed in the literature generally incorporate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (80% of manuscripts), particularly Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), with the most common projection periods until 2050 (50% of documents). The selected manuscripts contain qualitative and quantitative modelling tools to simulate climate impact on crop suitability (55% of results), crop produ...
Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model
Ecological Modelling
Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) believes that open access contributes to its mission of reducing hunger and poverty, and improving human nutrition in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture. CIAT is committed to creating and sharing knowledge and information openly and globally. We do this through collaborative research as well as through the open sharing of our data, tools, and publications.
PLoS ONE, 2012
Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short-to mediumterm (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.
Regional Environmental Change, 2014
Previous research has shown that the production of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica), the main source of high-quality coffee, will be severely affected by climate change. Since large numbers of smallholder farmers in tropical mountain regions depend on this crop as their main source of income, the repercussions on farmer livelihoods could be substantial. Past studies of the issue have largely focused on Latin America, while the vulnerability of Southeast Asian coffee farmers to climate change has received very little attention. We present results of a modeling study of climate change impacts on Arabica coffee in Indonesia, one of the world's largest coffee producers. Focusing on the country's main Arabica production zones in Sumatra, Sulawesi, Flores, Bali and Java, we show that there are currently extensive areas with a suitable climate for Arabica coffee production outside the present production zones. Temperature increases are likely to combine with decreasing rainfall on some islands and increasing rainfall on others. These changes are projected to drastically reduce the total area of climatically suitable coffee-producing land across Indonesia by 2050. However, even then there will remain more land area with a suitable climate and topography for coffee cultivation outside protected areas available than is being used for coffee production now, although much of this area will not be in the same locations. This suggests that local production decline could at least partly be compensated by expansion into other areas. This may allow the country to maintain current production levels while those of other major producer countries decline. However, this forced adaptation process could become a major driver of deforestation in the highlands. We highlight the need for public and private policies to encourage the expansion of coffee farms into areas that will remain suitable over the medium term, that are not under legal protection, and that are already deforested so that coffee farming could make a positive contribution to landscape restoration.
Land in Central America will become less suitable for coffee cultivation under climate change
Coffee cultivation in Central America provides goods and services at local, national, and international levels. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude and continuity of these benefits by reducing the land suitability for coffee cultivation. To quantify the impacts of climate change on land suitability, we use the Bayesian network model Agroecological Land Evaluation for Coffea arabica L. (ALECA) and estimate the land suitability for coffee production in 2000, 2050, and 2080 under three climate change scenarios based on relative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that even under the less severe climate scenarios, over half of the current coffee area in Central America will experience a decline in its land suitability for coffee production, from excellent or good to moderate and marginal, and that the change will not happen in the more distant future of 2080, but by 2050. Under RCP 8.5, most coffee areas become of marginal and moderate suitability. The findings show that the continuity of coffee cultivation in a large portion of coffee areas in Central America is under threat and that farmers and policymakers should develop adaptation portfolios for their farms and regions in a timely manner.
Impact of climate change on coffee production: An overview
Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry, 2020
The impacts from climate change are already widespread and the consequences have been witnessed all around the world. India is among the countries most affected by climate change according to Global Climate Risk Index (2017) and in particular the southern states where coffee is grown. Coffee is the second largest traded commodity in the world next to petroleum products. The major producing countries are Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, India and Guatemala, whose economies earn considerable foreign exchange from the export of coffee. These countries are facing local and global impacts of climate change over the decades as any fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, humidity, soil nutrients, moisture, sunlight, aeration and soil temperature could impact the growth and productivity of coffee plants. Hence, adaption of mitigation strategies involving actions to reduce global warming is an important option to overcome the impact of climate variations on coffee production.
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