Management strategies of a critical aquifer under the climate change in Jahrum of South-Central Iran (original) (raw)
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Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2016
Groundwater is the main source of water in arid and semi-arid regions, so it is very important to recognize vulnerable parts of aquifer under future climate change conditions. In this research, 16 climate models were evaluated based on weighting approach. HADCM3 and CGCM2.3.2a models were selected for temperature and precipitation prediction, respectively. LARS-WG was used for downscaling AOGCMs outputs. Results show that temperature increase by 1.4°C and precipitation changes between +10 and −6 % under B1 and A2 emission scenario, respectively. Runoff volumes will decrease by −39 % under A2 emission scenario whereas runoff volume will increase by +12 % under B1 emission scenario. Simulation of groundwater head variation by MODFLOW software indicates higher groundwater depletion rate under A2 scenario compared to B1 scenario. Groundwater model outputs indicate that the most vulnerable part of the aquifer is located in the southwest region. Large number of extraction wells and low aquifer transmissivity are the reasons for high vulnerability of the region.
Groundwater conditions related to climate change in the semi-arid area of western Iran
Groundwater for Sustainable Development , 2019
The effect of climate change on future groundwater conditions in the Toyserkan basin in western Iran has been studied. In recent years, overexploitation for agricultural activities has led to water-table decline. Groundwater recharge rate predictions in the study area were obtained from the RCP4.5 Scenario of the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and HadGEM2 General Circulation Model. Outputs were downscaled with the RegCM4 Regional Climate Model coupled to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM 4.5). RegCM4 model validation and prediction were attempted for 7 years (1999-2005) and 11 years (2015-2025), respectively. Validation results showed that RegCM4 reasonably simulated daily precipitation and monthly temperature and runoff. Firstly, geological, geophysical and hydrogeological data were used and evaluated to develop the conceptual model. Secondly, a 3D numerical model of groundwater flow was developed in order to describe the groundwater regime and predict the effects of water management strategies. Two scenarios were defined for the prediction period. The first scenario assumes that current exploitation rates will be continued, while the second one assumes a 20 percent decrease in pumping due to increased irrigation efficiency. The results showed a water-table rise from 2015 to 2025, which is heightened by increase in irrigation efficiency.
Water resources availability under different climate change scenarios in South East of Iran
Journal of Water and Climate Change
The comprehensive large-scale assessment of future available water resources is crucial for food security in countries dealing with water shortages like Iran. Kerman province, located in the south east of Iran, is an agricultural hub and has vital importance for food security. This study attempts to project the impact of climate change on available water resources of this province and then, by defining different scenarios, to determine the amount of necessary reduction in cultivation areas to achieve water balance over the province. The GFDL-ESM2M climate change model, RCP scenarios, and the CCT (Climate Change Toolkit) were used to project changes in climatic variables, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological simulation. The future period for which forecasts are made is 2020–2050. Based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, the CCT demonstrates good performance in data downscaling. The results show that under all cl...
River Research and Applications, 2019
Recently, many studies have investigated the effect of climate change on groundwater resources in semiarid and arid areas and have shown adverse effects on groundwater recharge and water level. However, only a few studies have shown suitable strategies for reducing these adverse effects. In this study, climate conditions were predicted for the future period of 2020-2044, under the emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for Isfahan-Borkhar aquifer, Isfahan, Iran, using MODFLOW-2000 (MODFLOW is United States Geological Survey product). Results showed that the average groundwater level of the aquifer would decrease to 13, 15, and 16 m in 2012 to 2044 approximately under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios , respectively. Then, three groundwater sustainability management scenarios were defined that included 10%, 30%, and 50% reduction in groundwater extraction. These strategies simulated the reduced negative effects of climate change on the aquifer. The results showed that decreases in water withdrawal rates of 10%, 30%, and 50% under RCP8.5 scenario (critical scenario) could decrease the mean groundwater level by 14, 11, and 7 m, respectively. The main result of the study showed that 50% reduction in groundwater withdrawal may increase the groundwater levels significantly in order to restore the aquifer sustainability in the study area. In this study, with assuming that the current harvest of wells in the future period is constant, so the results of studies showed that for the aquifer's sustainability management, the water abstraction from the aquifer should reduce up to 50% of the existing wells. Changing the irrigation method from surface to subdroplet irrigation plays an important role in reducing the withdrawal from the aquifer. The results of a study in Iran have shown that the change in the irrigation method from surface to subdroplet irrigation causes a 40% reduction in water use for agriculture.
Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran
Water Resources Research, 2009
As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate change on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance in management of this essential resource. In this study, we used a hydrologic model of Iran to study the impact of future climate on the country's water resources. The hydrologic model was created using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and calibrated for the period from 1980 to 2002 using daily river discharges and annual wheat yield data at a subbasin level. Future climate scenarios for periods of 2010-2040 and 2070-2100 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, B1, and A2, which were downscaled for 37 climate stations across the country. The hydrologic model was then applied to these periods to analyze the effect of future climate on precipitation, blue water, green water, and yield of wheat across the country. For future scenarios we found that in general, wet regions of the country will receive more rainfall while dry regions will receive less. Analysis of daily rainfall intensities indicated more frequent and larger-intensity floods in the wet regions and more prolonged droughts in the dry regions. When aggregated to provincial levels, the differences in the predictions due to the three future scenarios were smaller than the uncertainty in the hydrologic model. However, at the subbasin level the three climate scenarios produced quite different results in the dry regions of the country, although the results in the wet regions were more or less similar.
Adaptation of surface water supply to climate change in central Iran
Optimal reservoir operation changes and adaptation strategies for the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin's surface water supply system are examined for a changing climate during the 2015–2044 period. On average, the monthly temperature in the basin is expected to increase by 0.46–0.76 °C and annual precipitation is expected to decrease by 14–38% with climate change, resulting in a reduction of the Zayandeh-Rud's peak stream flow and the amplitude of its seasonal range. Snowfall decrease in winter months will generally lead to an 8–43% reduction in annual stream flow under climate change. A reservoir operation model is developed and optimal reservoir operation strategies are identified for adaptation of the basin's surface water supply to climate change in the face of the increasing water demand. Results indicate that the reservoir drawdown season starts two months earlier under climate change. Smaller storage levels and greater water releases must incur to meet the increasing water demand. The optimized water release can provide sufficient water for non-agricultural water demand, but agriculture will experience more severe water shortage under a changing climate. Having the highest vulnerability, the agricultural sector should be the main focus of regional management plans to address the current water challenge and more severe water shortages under climate change.
University of Tehran, College of Aburaihan, 2022
Groundwater is the most valuable water resources in any region and in many arid and semi-arid regions of the world, such as Iran, is the main source for drinking and agricultural needs. In recent years, with the increase in population and as a result of increasing withdrawals from aquifers and climate change, many of aquifers are in poor condition, and these conditions continue or are deteriorating. In this regard, regular monitoring of aquifers is always very important and by making appropriate management decisions, it is possible to prevent more damage to aquifers and reduce the damage. The purpose of this study is to determine the droughts of the future and to determine its impact on the aquifer of Shahrekord plain. In this study, using the output of CMIP6 models, climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature for the next period are simulated and the rainfall situation in the region until 2100 has been determined. Then, using the ANFIS model, groundwater depth in five selected piezometers in the plain is predicted by 2050. According to the results of this study, the aquifer condiotion of Shahrekord plain has been determined by 2050 and it has been determined that in some parts of Shahrekord plain, the groundwater depth will increase to 26 meters. Due to possible changes in the future in order to prevent the situation from deteriorating and increasing the damage, appropriate management decisions must be made in this regard.
Acta Geophysica, 2022
Population growth and increasing demand for water have posed a significant challenge to access to safe water resources. Climate change and land use in the not-too-distant future add to the complexity of this challenge. Therefore, it is essential to achieve reliable methods for predicting changes in aquifer storage to plan for the sustainable use of groundwater resources. This study aimed to investigate the management, protection, and sustainable use of groundwater resources under climate change and land use change conditions. In this regard, groundwater supply and demand in one of the important plains in Iran (Hashtgerd plain) for 2020 as the base year was simulated to forecast the trends until 2050 by considering climate change and land use to develop management scenarios to adapt to these conditions using the WEAP model. First, climate change prediction was performed using the HadGEM2-ES model under two emission scenarios, RCP2.6, and RCP8.5, of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The LARS-WG model was used to downscale the climatic data, while land use mapping was performed using Landsat satellite images of 1990, 2005, and 2020 in ENVI 5.3 software. Then, the Markov chain method implemented in TerrSet software was used to model land use change for 2050. The effect of climate change and land use on the decrease of groundwater level was then simulated using the MODFLOW model for the period 2020-2050. In order to manage the water allocation in the area, the information obtained from MODFLOW was transferred to the WEAP model using Link Kitchen interface software. The effects of various management scenarios such as increasing irrigation efficiency, reducing the loss of drinking water distribution networks, and allocating water from the transmission line were evaluated on the adaptation to climate change and land use for a 30-year period. The results showed that with the simultaneous consideration of climate change and land use in the most critical state, the average drop in groundwater level would reach 58 m during the study period, and aquifer reserves will be reduced by more than 50%. The evaluation of management scenarios showed that their implementation not only will protect aquifer reserves but, in addition to meeting 100% of the water needs, will result in sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources.
Impacts of future land cover and climate change on the water balance in northern Iran
Hydrological Sciences Journal
We evaluated the potential impacts of future land cover change and climate variability on hydrological processes in the Neka River basin, northern Iran. This catchment is the main source of water for the intensively cultivated area of Neka County. Hydrological simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. An ensemble of 17 CMIP5 climate models was applied to assess changes in temperature and precipitation under the moderate and high emissions scenarios. To generate the business-as-usual scenario map for year 2050 we used the Land Change Modeler. With a combined change in land cover and climate, discharge is expected to decline in all seasons except the end of autumn and winter, based on the inter-model average and various climate models, which illustrated a high degree of uncertainty in discharge projections. Land cover change had a minor influence on discharge relative to that resulting from climate change.
International Journal of River Basin Management, 2015
Continuous over-exploitation of groundwater resources has severely curtailed the resilience of their aquifers and their ability to stabilize farming livelihoods in the face of heightened hydro-climatic variability. Groundwater in Punjab region is pumped from great and increasing depths, causing decline in groundwater storage which affects crop production. In this study, an investigation is carried out to evaluate the impact of climate change on groundwater storage for Joga distributary of Sirhind command area which falls under Satluj basin in India. In this analysis, observed gridded data and Regional Climate Model simulated data for mid-century and end-century period have been used for climate study. Initially, a statistical analysis is implemented to detect the trend available in precipitation and evapotranspiration data. Seasonal variation of different climate parameters shows that rainfall may increase nearly 30% by the end of the century compared to the current climatological baseline during the monsoon period. The whole basin is projected to warm significantly, with minimum temperatures rising most pronouncedly. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model has been used to estimate the groundwater storage. Different scenarios are developed using the WEAP model; analysis shows that a shift to direct seeded rice, along with improvement in irrigation efficiencies, would improve the sustainability of groundwater use. Reducing the area planted with rice by 25% almost restores the system to sustainable groundwater use. Cost analysis indicated that the cost per hectare for groundwater irrigation with direct seeded rice and a reduced area would be about 2670 Rs/ha.