Climate variability and change--hydrological impacts (original) (raw)
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
The threat of climate change has increased interest in climate research, which focuses on observing, understanding and modelling the five interconnected components that comprise the climate system: atmosphere, oceans, land surface, cryosphere, and biosphere. Feedbacks at a variety of spatial and temporal scales shape the system's overall behaviour, and the hydrological cycle plays a critical role in this respect, via two important feedback processes that involve water vapour and clouds. Climate modelling improves understanding of climate processes and characteristics, and several approaches are available, from simple models to general circulation models (GCM). GCMs offer the most realistic simulations of the global and continental climate, but cannot provide the most important climatic variables to regional-scale hydrological modelling. Therefore, many research groups have begun to use regional circulation models to downscale the coarse-resolution information generated by GCMs; they then apply these driving-fields to hydrological models. Downscaling improves the representation of climatic behaviour, but does not allow for feedback between models. Simple models may offer an alternative for certain hydrological applications.
Hydrologic responses to climate change: considering geographic context and alternative hypotheses
Hydrological Processes, 2011
One of the most significant consequences of climate warming is the likely change in streamflow as a result of warming air temperatures. Hydrologists have responded to the challenge of understanding these effects. Many recent studies quantify historical trends in streamflow and usually attribute these trends to climate warming, via altered evapotranspiration and snowpack (Figure 1.a). However, without questioning the fundamental reality of a warming climate, hydrologists should also consider biotic and social processes whose omission may produce misleading interpretations about climate change effects on hydrology. The aim of this commentary is to raise awareness of ecological and social processes that may confound the interpretation of climate effects on hydrology, to review how the geographic context of streamflow records affects interpretation of the climate signal, and to suggest a 'checklist' of working hypotheses that can be used to structure studies of streamflow responses to climate change. A wide variety of trends in streamflow have been detected and attributed to climate change and variability, but a few themes dominate the literature. The most common studies report earlier snowmelt, a shift to earlier streamflow timing, altered spring maximum flows, and/or intensified summer drought (
Climate Change: Natural Variability is a Big Deal Too!
2011
Climate changes. That's what climate does. It is a natural and dynamic process. The National Weather Service (NWS) recognizes ongoing climate change by publishing new figures for average climate every ten years. Climate averages for precipitation, temperature, and other weather parameters are computed on a 30-year basis but only updated once per decade. With all of the discussion about anthropogenic (i.e. man-made) climate change, it is easy to overlook just how variable our natural climate can be in the relatively short-term. Our climate can and does vary by significant amounts within one human lifetime and well within the design lifetime of our water infrastructure. Sometimes this fact gets lost in the noise of the climate change debate. Part of the reason is the relatively short records of our key meteorologic and hydrologic parameters. Here's an example. Sacramento, CA, has one of the longest rainfall records in the western US. Annual rainfall totals are available from 1850 to present. Over the 164 year record from 1850-2014, the average annual rainfall was 18.34 inches. However, the 30-year moving average rainfall varies from 20.42 inches in 1896 down to 14.51 inches in 1937 and up again to 20.47 inches by 2007. That's 30-40% swing of 30-year average rainfall in a single lifetime. (Human lifetime, not geologic time!) Most of our short records completely miss that signal. Recent streamflow reconstructions of Sacramento River flows using tree ring data show this signal repeatedly over the past 1100 years. That such significant changes can occur relatively fast has major implications for water resources infrastructure design. That such significant changes can occur relatively fast has major implications for water resources infrastructure design. This presents explores and presents findings regarding rapid variation of "climate averages" in northern California and Oregon using long-term rainfall records. It also emphasizes the importance selecting climate models that replicate this multi-decadal signal when analyzing impacts of climate change. These results suggest that not only is stationarity dead, it likely wasn't really alive in the first place. We simply assumed it was.
Climate change, hydrology, and water resources
Reviews of Geophysics, 1989
Growing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases are leading to climatic changes with important implications for the hydrologic balance and water resources. These "greenhouse gases" are expected to alter the radiative balance of the atmosphere, causing increases in temperature and changes in many other climatic variables. Recent hydrological research strongly suggests that this so-called "greenhouse effect" will alter the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture, change lake levels, and affect water quality. Such changes raise the possibility of environmental and socioeconomic dislocations, and they have important implications for future water resources planning and management. This paper reviews state-of-the-art research into the implications of climatic changes for the hydrologic cycle and for water resources and discusses the implications of such changes for future water planning and management.
Global climatic changes and regional hydrology: impacts and responses
The Influence of Climate Change and Climatic …, 1987
As the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other trace gases increases, changes in global and regional climatic conditions will lead to a wide range of hydrologie impacts, including changes in the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture. These hydrologie changes, in turn, will result in diverse economic, social, and political consequences.