Impact of COVID-19 and economic policy uncertainty on China's stock market returns: evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches (original) (raw)
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ETIKONOMI
The purpose of this study is to probe the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on stock market returns and volatility in developed markets. We employ a panel quantile regression model to capture unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity. The study's findings reveal that there is a heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on stock market returns and volatility. More specifically, there is a negative impact of COVID-19 on stock returns in the bearish stock market; however, there is an insignificant impact of COVID-19 on stock returns in the bullish stock market. Furthermore, COVID-19 has a positive impact on stock market volatility across all quantiles.JEL Classification: G24, G30, O16How to Cite:Khalid, N., Zafar, R. F., Syed, Q. R., Bhowmik, R., & Jamil, M. (2021). The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 Outbreak on Stock Market Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression Model. Etikonomi, 20(2), xx – xx. https://doi.org/10.154...
Coronavirus and the Chinese Stock Market: Pandemic Versus Financial Crisis
Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2022
This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index returns and volatility from October 2019 to March 2020. The GARCH results show that the pandemic negatively affected the SSE stock returns during the spread of the virus, and the conditional variance showed increased variation at the time. However, the increased volatility did not cause a market crash as Patel & Sarkar (1998) and Mishkin & White (2002) reported. The negative effect on stock returns and the increased volatility might be justified because well-diversified markets can alter the wealth effects on composite stock markets, and they can make a quick recovery after crises. When comparing the effects of the pandemic to those of the 2008 financial crisis on SSE returns, the results show higher risk values and much thicker tails of probability distribution during the pandemic. Both the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis negatively affected stock returns, but the effe...
2023
China has remained a growth engine for the global economy for the last several years. In this study, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on China's business and economic conditions; employing the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression and the quantile causality approaches. These econometrics batteries suit our research postulation, as they are capable to delineate underlying asymmetries across the whole distribution, based on which we can infer whether the response of China's business and economic conditions towards COVID-19 is heterogenous or homogenous. Utilizing the novel business and economic conditions measures, we observed that COVID-19 had initially disrupted both business and economic conditions in China. However, they showcased recovery over time. Our in-depth analysis allowed us to infer that the effect of COVID-19 on China's business and economic conditions is heterogeneous across different quantiles, and there is reliable evidence of asymmetry. The outcomes of quantile causality in mean and variance corroborate our primary estimations. These findings educate policymakers, companies, and other stakeholders to understand the nuances of China's business and economic conditions visa -vis COVID-19 in the short-run and as time elapsed.
Do the Outbreak of COVID-19 Influence the China Stock Market?
Problemy Ekorozwoju
This study aims at the impact outbreak of COVID-19 influence Chinese currency and stock market over the period December 2, 2019, to January 04, 2021. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Homoscedastic approach captures the most common stylized fact about index returns (such as multivariate to capture the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange). Our finding shows the explosive process and risk premium for the Shenzhen stock exchange (SSE) and Shanghai stock exchange (SZSE) index. And the standard deviation depreciation of the Chinese currency during the COVID-19 equivalent to 0.46% improved stock market return by 81% average returns. These results explain that high volatility of index returns is present in the Chinese stock market over the sample period. According to the analysis results, it can be concluded that the number of new cases and the number of recent deaths have a significant effect on the stock market, causing uncertainty in the sustainability.
Journal of Public Affairs, 2020
During the pandemic, the stock markets of developed countries have reported a jittery trend. The current study focuses on the impact of COVID-19 on Pakistani stock market, which belongs to a developing economy. The findings of current study have contradicted with the previous studies, which reported an adverse effect of COVID-19 on developed stock markets. We conclude that KSE-100 index has confirmed positive increment in stock returns. In addition, by using three predicted scenarios of COVID-19, we report the significant increase in KSE-100 index. However, it seems clear that the timely intervention of Pakistani government has safeguard the investors from utter disaster of stock market.
Regional Statistics, 2023
With several commodity and financial markets allegedly performing poorly during the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic, the objective of this study is to examine how the pandemic has affected stock markets in the G7 economies. The study applies the recently developed cross-quantilogram model introduced by Han et al. (2016) to investigate quantile dependence between the conditional stock return distributions of G7 countries and the total daily global confirmed Covid-19 cases across investment horizons. The results reveal that the cross-quantile dependence between the confirmed Covid-19 cases and G7 stock returns is most significant in the short and medium term. The interlinkage weakens as the lag period lengthens. These findings imply that, in the short and medium term, stock markets in the G7 countries reacted negatively and disproportionately to the increase in the number of daily verified Covid-19 cases. Besides, cross-quantile correlations calculated from recursive subsamples indicate that they change over time, especially in low and medium quantiles, suggesting that they are prone to jumps and discontinuities in the dependence structures. The findings can aid investors and policymakers in better understanding stock market dynamics, particularly during times of great stress and unknown events.
Determinants of G7 and Chinese Stock Market Returns During COVID-19 Outbreak
2020
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the determinants of G7, and Chinese stock market returns during the COVID-19 outbreak. We find that Bitcoin and Ethereum can generate benefits from portfolio diversification and hedging strategies for G7 financial investors in early 2020. Our result reveals that Gold is neither hedge nor haven during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the results indicated that the expected volatility of the US stock market has no effect on the Japanese and Chinese financial markets. Finally, our results suggest that the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths has an impact only on the US stock market.
COVID-19 and stock exchange return variation: empirical evidences from econometric estimation
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2021
This research looked at the effects of COVID-19 on a number of the world's most important stock exchanges, as well as the empirical relation between the COVID-19 wave and stock market volatility. In order to plan proper portfolio diversification in international financial markets, researchers must examine COVID-19 anxiety in relation to stock market volatility. The stock market volatility connected with the COVID-19 pandemic was measured using AR(1)-GARCH(1,1). COVID-19 fear, according to our research, is the ultimate driver of public attention and stock market volatility. The findings show that throughout the pandemic, stock market performance and GDP growth both declined significantly due to average increases. Furthermore, a 1% increase in COVID-19 causes a 0.8% and 0.56% decline in stock return and GDP, respectively. The stock market, on the other hand, showed a slight movement in GDP growth. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic reported cases index, death index, and global panic index all influenced public perceptions of purchasing and selling. As a result, rather than investing in stocks, it is recommended that you invest in gold. The research also makes policy recommendations for important stakeholders. We look to examine how stock returns respond dynamically to unanticipated changes in the COVID-19 scenarios, as well as the uncertainty that comes with a pandemic. Using daily data from Canada and the USA, we conclude that a spike in COVID-19 instances has a negative impact on the stock market in general. Furthermore, in both the increase and decline scenarios in Canada, the stock return reactions are asymmetric. The disparity is due to the unfavorable impact of the pandemic's unpredictability. We also discovered that uncertainty had a negative impact on the US stock market. The magnitude, however, is insignificant.
Evidence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Stock Returns
Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2022
This paper examines the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and COVID-19 shock on stock returns. Tests of 16 global stock market indices, using monthly data from January 1990 to August 2021, suggest a negative relation between the stock return and a country’s EPU. Evidence suggests that a rise in the U.S. EPU causes not only a decline in a country’s stock return, but also a negative spillover effect on the global market; however, we cannot find a comparable negative effect from global EPU to U.S. stocks. Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact that significantly affects stock return worldwide. This study also finds an indirect COVID-19 impact that runs through a change in domestic EPU and, in turn, affects stock return. Evidence shows significant COVID-19 effects that change relative stock returns between the U.S. and global markets, creating a decoupling phenomenon.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2021
In this paper, we assess the impacts of the COVID-19 counts (infected cases, deaths and recovered) and related announcements on the Islamic and conventional stocks interplays in the Chinese market. We test whether Islamic stocks are perceived as assets providing diversification benefits in time of COVID-19 pandemic. Doing so, we implement a multivariate GJR-GARCH model under dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) as well as multiple and partial wavelet coherence methods to recent Chinese daily data ranging from 2 December 2019 to 8 May 2020 and COVID-19 related announcement for the period. Our results from multivariate GJR-GARCH models reveal that COVID-19 infected cases and deaths do impact mean DCCs between Islamic and conventional stocks, number of recovered do not have such impact, while none of the above have any significant impact on the DCCs fluctuations. However, when we analyze the impact of COVID-19 related announcement on the variation of conditional correlation between two stocks (i.e. DCC volatility) our findings show that 7 out of 10 such announcements (mainly those with serious health treats or economic implications) do effect those volatilities in Chinese equity market. The empirical findings from partial and multiple wavelet coherences provide robust evidence of instability in the co-movement between Islamic and conventional indexes for different scales and over dissimilar sub-periods. Indeed, the weakening of co-movements is especially notable in the very short and short-run where operating the short-term investors. Our empirical findings offer several key propositions for policy makers and portfolio managers in China with broad implications applicable to other markets.