Turning the Right Corner (original) (raw)

to income, and Canada, the United States, and some oil-producing countries have very high consumption. Some of the differences can be explained by geography, but others are due to energy demand policies and technology differences. Motorization has driven the expansion of roads and the increase in energy use. It accelerates in most countries at per capita incomes of 5,000−5,000-5,000−10,000 (figure O.2). There is no direct link between motorization and development; small countries with high per capita incomes, in particular, have large differences in motorization. Projecting patterns of motorization and energy use into the future, the transport sector would eventually become the main consumer of oil (figure O.3). Absolute oil consumption would increase dramatically until 2030, and alternative sources of energy would have minor impact. Longer-term scenarios suggest that the trend would continue until the century ends. Deep cuts in transport greenhouse gas emissions through fuel substitution are expected to be possible with the emergence of new biofuel feedstocks that do not compete with food production and require less water-or as fuel cell cars become economically viable. If today's developing countries repeat what has happened in developed countries, almost all the increase in transport oil demand would come from non-Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. China, India, and the Middle East would see the largest increase (figure O.4). Progress in engine technologies would reduce fossil fuel consumption in some parts of the OECD, but such savings in non-OECD countries would be far exceeded by the rise in motorization. 1. This translates into a mirror image in per capita emissions in transport (see figure O.1).