A Sensitive Analysis of Drivers and Impact of Deforestation in Uganda's Virgin Tropical Rainforests Using Regression Analysis: Efforts Towards Zero Deforestation by 2030 (original) (raw)
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International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 2020
The study investigates the drivers of deforestation in Nigeria using annual time series data for the period 1990-2012. The data on all the variables were tested for unit root using KPSS unit root test. The results from KPSS units root test revealed that all the variables are stationary at level. And they are cointegrated as reported by the Engle granger test for cointegration. The result from fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) indicates that wood fuel, economic growth, agricultural land and foreign direct investment have significant positive impacts on deforestation with urbanization been inversely related to deforestation in the long run. Government should give more emphasis on providing alternative means of cooking and lightening apart from fire woods, providing modern means of farming with crops that require small amount of land and lastly emphasis more on public enlightenment campaign on the dangers of deforestation and desertification.
International Journal of Forestry Research
Understanding the extent of land cover change and the forces behind land cover changes is essential in designing appropriate restoration strategies. Land cover changes at local scales or the factors that lead to cover change have not been documented for much of Uganda. We undertook this study in West Bugwe Central Forest Reserve (WBCFR) to fill this gap. We used remote sensing to determine land cover changes for a 30-year period, 1986–2016, and an interview survey to investigate the drivers of these changes. Our results show that the forest in this reserve has declined extensively by over 82% from 1,682 ha to 311 ha corresponding to an average change of −1.18% per year. The wetland has also been extensively degraded. Both the forest and wetland have transitioned into shrub land. The key drivers that have been highlighted by the survey are poverty (86%), population growth (56%), and associated harvesting of woody products (86%) for subsistence and income generation. We conclude that ...
Forest Policy and Economics, 2007
This study is an effort at developing a dynamic non-linear programming bio-economic model capable of analyzing deforestation and degradation processes in the Ugandan woodlands. The model is unique in capturing the entire systems behavior affecting deforestation and degradation, approximated through changes in forest area and stand density. Thus the model incorporates biological factors, such as growth, the socio-economic factors and related interactions between them. A matrix growth sub-model for the woodlands, accounting for diameter increment, mortality, recruitment and harvest of trees, was imbedded in the overall model to account for the stock changes over the planning horizon. The socio-economic factors and relations affecting the woodland deforestation and degradation processes are addressed through incorporation of three sets of activities, namely, crop cultivation, livestock raising and wood harvesting for firewood and charcoal. Demand and supply relations for these activities are linked through behavioral, structural and accounting equations. The production, consumption, and sale decisions are assumed to be made simultaneously by the households. Though, the model can be successfully used at different levels and planning horizons, a village is the decision making unit over the period 2003-2020 for the purpose of this study. The net present value of cash flows is taken as a proxy measure for utility that is sought to be maximized under six alternate scenarios, including the base scenario. Under the base scenario, 46.7% woodland clearing for cultivation and 42.1% reduction in biomass density were observed over the model planning horizon. Under the scenarios with improved agricultural yields and increased charcoal prices and taxes, the clearing of available woodland was predicted at 98.3%. Biomass density was observed to decline by about 11.9% and 15.5% with the imposition of wood harvest and charcoal quotas. It was observed that none of the policy interventions in this study resulted in reduced degradation and deforestation, which posits a dilemma to the policy makers and implementers. However, we conclude that a well implemented system for taxes or quota restrictions would enhance sustainable resource use in the remaining woodland areas. These interventions are highly limited by implementation and enforcement problems that need to be properly addressed by policy makers and planners. D
2024
The world's forests play an integral role in not only the well-being of their inhabitants but also in the overall health of other lifeforms on the planet. Some of the major benefits of forests include climate stability, ecological benefits, biodiversity and economic importance. Deforestation is one of the major challenges to gain the above benefits in the long run. It involves the permanent end of forest cover to make that land available for residential, commercial or industrial purposes. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of forest products demand on deforestation in Rwanda. A case study of Burera, Gakenke, Gicumbi, Musanze, and Rulindo Districts. The study adopted a crosssectional survey research design as its framework to guide the process of data collection. The target population was households living closer to the forest products demand. The study adopted a purposive sampling approach to select five districts. Twelve (20) households were randomly selected from each sector making a total sample size of 120 respondents. Descriptive analysis was done using SPSS version 20, and regression using STATA version 12. The results of the study indicated that the forest products used by the households were firewood, stakes, timbres, charcoal, building scaffolds, fodder, poles, and medicine. The results of the logit model showed that land size, family income, household size, occupation, education level, and fodder were statistically significant and positively influenced forest product demand in the study area at (p< 0.01). The result of the regression analysis also revealed that eight variables out of nine were positively significant and influenced deforestation in the study area. Agricultural activities, urbanization, forest fires, and overpopulation were statistically significant at the P ≤ 0.01 level. Despite the roles provided by forests all over the world, the results of this study showed deforestation effectively causes climate change, wildlife extinction & habitat loss, decline in the life quality of people (100%). After these results of the study, the best solution to overcome deforestation is to curb the felling of trees by enforcing a series of rules and laws to govern it. Supporting research, extension and training for more sustainable grazing systems, including silvopastoral techniques that can simultaneously increase livestock production and protect the soil against nutrient depletion, compaction and erosion.
The Role of Human Development on Deforestation in Africa:
The rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990-2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. This implies a total of 3.42% of forest was lost in the 18 year period. This is more in line with estimates obtained by the Food and Agricultural Organization (0.56% between1990-2000 and 0.49% between 2000-2010). Human development which involves life expectancy, education and income is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while cutting down trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalized linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, we were able to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends. In many countries, progress has been made in reforestation, forest protection and conservation. However, if indiscriminate cutting down of trees is not checked, many countries will lose most or all of their forests by 2030.
An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries
Environmental Research Letters, 2012
Countries are encouraged to identify drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the development of national strategies and action plans for REDD+. In this letter we provide an assessment of proximate drivers of deforestation and forest degradation by synthesizing empirical data reported by countries as part of their REDD+ readiness activities, CIFOR country profiles, UNFCCC national communications and scientific literature. Based on deforestation rate and remaining forest cover 100 (sub)tropical non-Annex I countries were grouped into four forest transition phases. Driver data of 46 countries were summarized for each phase and by continent, and were used as a proxy to estimate drivers for the countries with missing data. The deforestation drivers are similar in Africa and Asia, while degradation drivers are more similar in Latin America and Asia. Commercial agriculture is the most important driver of deforestation, followed by subsistence agriculture. Timber extraction and logging drives most of the degradation, followed by fuelwood collection and charcoal production, uncontrolled fire and livestock grazing. The results reflect the most up to date and comprehensive overview of current national-level data availability on drivers, which is expected to improve over time within the frame of the UNFCCC REDD+ process.
The role of human development on deforestation in Africa: a modelling-based approach
International Journal of Green Economics, 6(4), pp. 317-330 , 2012
The rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990-2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. Human development, which involves life expectancy, education and income, is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while logging trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalised linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, it was possible to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends.
2013
Policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, known as REDD, and enhancing forest carbon stocks, known as REDD+, could provide a way for tackling global warming and climate change. In this regard several proposals were designed, yet their implementation poses significant methodological problems. One of those problems can be the interactions between the direct and indirect causes (drivers) of deforestation. Deforestation is a transformation of forestland for various land uses. This chapter therefore analyses trends in world deforestation in relation to different geographical regions and its drivers. A cross-sectional econometric model, recursive in nature, is estimated in two stages for addressing the interaction between the causes. Firstly, the direct causes of deforestation are regressed on indirect causes, by Email: rculas@csu.edu.au; Address: PO Box 883, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia