Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Development Patterns: Case of Tourism Industry in Asean Region (original) (raw)
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Prior studies on Malaysia mainly looked at the cointegration relationship and causality nexus of the tourism sector. In addition to these apects, in this article, we look at the statistical and economic significance of tourism in Malaysia. We explore the short-run and long-run effects of tourism on output per worker in Malaysia using the sample period 1975-2012 where we estimate the respective elasticity coefficients. Given that the data on tourism receipts reported by the World Bank (2013) are only for 1995-2011 at the time of study, we use an exponential trend function based on the available data for tourism receipts as best fit to approximate the missing data. Subsequently, using the data from 1975-2012 and the augmented Solow (1956) model in which tourism receipts (% GDP) is included as a shift variable and hence a proxy for tourism development, we examine the cointegration, elasticity coefficients and causation using the ARDL bounds (Pesaran et al. 2001) and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) non Granger causality procedure, respectively. The results show that tourism has a lagged marginal negative effect (−0.06 %) in the short run and a positive and statistically significant effect in the long-run (+0.26 %). The causality nexus show a bi