What the COVID-19 school closure left in its wake: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Japan (original) (raw)
Related papers
2021
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease caused schools in Japan to close to cope with the pandemic. In response to this, parents of students were obliged to care for their children during the daytime when they were usually at school. Does the increase in burden of childcare influence parents’ mental health? Based on short panel data from mid-March to mid-April 2020, we explored how school closures influenced the mental health of parents with schoolaged children. Using the fixed effects model, we found that school closures lead to student’s mothers suffering from worse mental health than other females, while the fathers’ mental health did not differ from other males. This tendency was only observed for less educated mothers who had children attending primary school, but not those attending junior high school. The contribution of this paper is to show that school closures increased the inequality of mental health between genders and the educational background of parents.
School closures and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan
Journal of Population Economics
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease caused schools in Japan to close to cope with the pandemic. In response to the school closures, parents of students were obliged to care for their children during the daytime, when children usually were at school. Did the increase in the burden of childcare influence parents’ mental health? Based on short panel data from mid-March to mid-April 2020, we explore how school closures influenced the mental health of parents with school-aged children. Using a fixed-effects model, we find that school closures led to mothers of students suffering from worse mental health compared to other females, while the fathers’ mental health did not differ from that of other males. This tendency is only observed for less-educated mothers who had children attending primary school, not for those with children attending junior high school nor for more-educated mothers. The contribution of this paper is showing that school closures increased the inequality of men...
No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020
Nature Medicine, 2021
Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, school closures are one of the most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, school closures bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess the causal effect of school closures in Japan on reducing the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020. By matching each municipality with open schools to a municipality with closed schools that is the most similar in terms of potential confounders, we can estimate how many cases the municipality with open schools would have had if it had closed its schools. We do not find any evidence that school closures in Japan reduced the spread of COVID-19. Our null results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamin...
COVID-19 counterfactual evidence. Estimating the effects of school closures
Policy Studies, 2022
Scholars have started to estimate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the health impact of COVID-19. However, the empirical evidence is highly contested, and since it is not known exactly what would have happened without those measures, political élites are left free to give credit to the voices that they prefer the most. We argue that any sensible assessment of the effectiveness of anti-COVID policies requires methodological reflection on what is actually comparable, and how to approximate the ideal "method of difference" theorized by John Stuart Mill. By evaluating the effectiveness of school closures as anti-COVID policy, we provide two examples in which appropriate counterfactuals are inductively discovered, rather than selected a priori. In the first one we use Coarsened Exact Matching in a crosscountry setting, while in the second one we implement the Synthetic Control Method in a within-country analysis. The article highlights the methodological advantages of including this type of techniques in the toolbox of policy scholars, while both examples confirm the effectiveness of school closures.
Will the last be the first? School closures and educational outcomes
arXiv (Cornell University), 2022
Governments have implemented school closures and online learning as one of the main tools to reduce the spread of Covid-19. Despite the potential benefits in terms of reduction of cases, the educational costs of these policies may be dramatic. This work identifies the educational costs, expressed as decrease in test scores, for the whole universe of Italian students attending the 5th, 8th and 13th grade of the school cycle during the 2021/22 school year. The analysis relies on a difference-indifference model in relative time, where the control group is the closest generation before the Covid-19 pandemic. The results suggest a national average loss between 1.6-4.1% and 0.5-2.4% in Mathematics and Italian test scores, respectively. After collecting the precise number of days of school closures for the universe of students in Sicily, we estimate that 30 additional days of closure decrease the test score by 1%. However, the impact is much larger for students from high schools (1.8%) compared to students from low and middle schools (0.5%). This is likely explained by the lower relevance of parental inputs and higher reliance on peers inputs, within the educational production function, for higher grades. Findings are also heterogeneous across class size and parental job conditions, pointing towards potential growing inequalities driven by the lack of in front teaching.
2021
As COVID-19 spread in 2020, most countries shut down schools in the hopes of slowing the pandemic. Yet, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Our study aims to estimate the causal effects of school closures on the number of confirmed cases. To do so, we apply matching methods to municipal-level data in Japan. We do not find that school closures caused a reduction in the spread of the coronavirus. Our results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for children and parents.
Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Analysis and Returns to Compulsory Schooling
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015
This paper is concerned with the use of a Bayesian approach to fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs for understanding the returns to education. The discussion is motivated by the change in government policy in the United Kingdom (UK) in April of 1947 when the minimum school leaving age was raised from 14 to 15, a change that had a discontinuous impact on the probability of leaving school at age 14 for cohorts who turned 14 around the time of the policy change. We develop a Bayesian fuzzy RD framework that allows us to take advantage of this discontinuity to calculate the effect of an additional year of education on subsequent log earnings for the (latent) class of subjects that complied with the policy change. We illustrate this approach with a new data set composed from the UK General Household Surveys.
Parental Stress Provoked by Short-Term School Closures During the Second COVID-19 Lockdown
Journal of Family Issues, 2021
Governments of numerous countries implemented school closures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Several investigations have shown the negative impact of social-distancing policies and school closures on children worldwide. Recently, research also demonstrated adverse effects on adults’ well-being. The development of children is strongly affected by their parent’s emotional state. The present study aimed to examine parental stress levels caused by a short period of homeschooling in December 2020 in Germany. A structured survey was set up and distributed randomly via social media and parent associations. We observed a significant increase in stress and concerns. Family conflicts significantly increased, social isolation was feared, and powerlessness and helplessness ascended. Risk factors were parental education levels, parental working time, and teaching features like the frequency of feedback, correction, and accessibility.
2020
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
PLOS ONE
Background In February 2021, the spread of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the Lombardy Region, Italy caused concerns about school-aged children as a source of contagion, leading local authorities to adopt an extraordinary school closure measure. This generated a debate about the usefulness of such an intervention in light of the trade-off between its related benefits and costs (e.g. delays in educational attainment, impact on children and families’ psycho-physical well-being). This article analyses the epidemiological impact of the school closure intervention in the Milan metropolitan area. Methods Data from the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan City of Milan allowed analysing the trend of contagion in different age classes before and after the intervention, adopting an interrupted times series design, providing a quasi-experimental counterfactual scenario. Segmented Poisson regression models of daily incident cases were performed separately for the 3–11-year-old, the...