Defence and Peace Economics Research Papers (original) (raw)

2025, Anais 9 ENABRI

Elencar as ameaças não convencionais dentre a Segurança Nacional pode trazer para o centro do debate o aspecto da segurança humana. Destarte, elencar, dentro dos documentos oficiais de Defesa os aspectos não convencionais colocarão, dentro da realidade de Segurança e Defesa Nacional os desafios intrínsecos internos que devam ser superados pelo Brasil. Dentre esses elementos não convencionais, destaca-se a importância da Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional (SAN). O alcançar um nível de Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional satisfatório constitui objetivo primordial de algumas nações, e deve ser levada em consideração em aspectos de Segurança Nacional. O estabelecimento de políticas públicas para esse direcionamento é perceptível em várias nações, bem como no Brasil. Contudo, ainda que seja de fundamental importância para a coesão interna, a SAN não é trabalhada, nos documentos oficiais, enquanto fator relevante para a Segurança Nacional. Nesse sentido, o atual trabalho busca discutir os caminhos e os fluxos para que a contraparte da SAN, a Insegurança Alimentar e Nutricional, seja considerada uma ameaça à Segurança Nacional, contida no espectro das ameaças não convencionais. O problema a ser inquirido é: de que maneira a insegurança alimentar e nutricional pode ser tratada enquanto ameaça à segurança nacional? O objetivo geral do trabalho é compreender a insegurança alimentar e nutricional enquanto ameaça não convencional à segurança nacional. Por objetivos específicos, busca-se conceituar a SAN e sua contraparte, bem como discutir a importância de considerar a SAN nos documentos oficiais. A metodologia de análise será a hipotético-dedutiva, em que serão analisados os documentos oficiais, bem como trazer para a discussão produção científica relevante sobre a temática de ameaças não convencionais, aplicando a insegurança alimentar e nutricional nesse espectro. Dentre os principais resultados obtidos estão o fato de que os documentos oficiais do Brasil não consideram o espectro das ameaças não convencionais nas suas análises, bem como negligenciam o papel dado ao controle de estoque de alimentos e da Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional como objetivos da Defesa Nacional, em desacordo com o que pensam outros países, como os Estados Unidos. Nesse sentido, propõe-se um aprofundamento da discussão acerca de tais ameaças, abarcar a concepção de segurança humana, bem como o reconhecimento da SAN como objetivo, também, de Defesa Nacional.

2025, The International Tax Journal

The study investigates the causal relationship between healthcare expenditure, nutrition and economic growth in 10 countries representative of the Middle East & North Africa over the period 2000:2024. Bootstrap panel Granger causality test approach is used taking into account the cross-sectional dependency and the heterogeneity in these countries. The empirical results support a bi-directional causality between economic growth and nutrition in Tunisia and Iran. The same a bi-directional causality is supported in empirical results of economic growth and health care expenditure in Algeria and way granger causality is supported in economic growth and health care expenditure in Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. We concluded a way granger causality is supported in health care expenditure and economic growth in Morocco and Iran. We also found way granger causality in the economic growth and nutrition in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Lebanon. The result of the causality tests reveal a way granger causality in nutrition and economic growth in Oman.

2025

has convincingly argued that warfare in Europe contributed to the development of the modern state. But just what form of strong state is likely to develop in the face of a persistent external threat? Hintze (1906) and propose the "garrison state" hypothesis: states facing a severe security threat are likely to develop autocratic institutions in order to minimize domestic opposition and maximize mobilization potential. A competing argument, which has been proposed by the "extraction" school of thought, argues that warfare can indirectly promote rather than inhibit the development of democratic institutions (Downing 1992). We examine these competing hypotheses by tracing the ebb and flow of political rights of majority males, females, and minority males using a cross-sectional time series of European states . We find that while wars lead to a reduction in rights in the short run, if large-scale mobilization occurs in response to the threat then political rights tend to expand in the long run.

2025, Revue d'Histoire Maritime

Après la Première Guerre mondiale, la Marine française souffre d’un manque de reconnaissance et doit se réorganiser malgré des moyens matériels devenus obsolètes. L’état-major engage rapidement des réformes institutionnelles, matérielles... more

2025, Defence and Peace Economics

In this paper we analyze theoretically and empirically the stability of the different political systems; that is, their ability to prevent conflict. According to our model, the proportional system has a lower probability of group rebellion than the majoritarian system. In the empirical part we test the role of political systems in preventing civil wars. We show that democracy by itself does not play an important explanatory role, while the specific type of political system-majoritarian, presidential and proportional-does. The rationale of this result is that different political systems entail different opportunity costs of rebellion.

2025, Defence and peace economics

In the contest-theoretic literature on the attack and defense of networks of targets the focus has primarily been on pure-strategy equilibria. In a prominent class of these models, we show that for much of the parameter space examined pure-strategy equilibria do not exist. Therefore, all such "characterizations" of the pure-strategy equilibria over these parameter configurations are invalid. One example that typifies the issues is Hausken (2008a). For that model, we provide necessary conditions for the "solution" given in that article to form a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium. Many of the existing results in the contest-theoretic literature on the attack and defense of networks of targets rely upon Hausken's (2008a) characterization and require corresponding parameter restrictions. When these restrictions are not met, the analysis of and Kovenock and Roberson (2010a) provides a foundation for constructing mixed-strategy Nash equilibria.

2025

States’ increasing resort to private military and security companies (PMSCs) does not merely distort the balance of power between different branches of government, strengthening the executive vis-à-vis the legislative. It also redistributes authority and resources within the executive branch, changing the relationship between civilian foreign policy bureaucracies and military organizations. Although the use of PMSCs provides foreign policy bureaucracies with new avenues to pursue their parochial interests, a scholarly analysis of the bureaucratic politics of outsourcing is still missing. This paper probes the hypothesis that the outsourcing of diplomatic security in the US and the UK has been affected by bureaucratic competition and inter-agency rivalries, responding to foreign policy bureaucracies and development agencies’ attempt to maximize their institutional autonomy vis-à-vis military organizations.

2025

Defence expenditure has an important role for a country's economy and has a greater impact on the economies of underdeveloped and developing countries. This article was prepared as a conceptual study for the purpose of answering the long-standing discussion about the share of Turkey's financial sources of defence expenditure in Turkey. In this context; basic concepts, factors affecting defence expenditures, process of determining defence budget, financial sources for defence expenditures were searched and Turkey's defence budget was compared with that of some selected other countries. The data used for comparison, were compiled from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It has been found that Turkey's defence expenditure out of its GDP plummeted after 2000, but this trend reversed and the ratio started to increase after 2015 which reached to 2.7% of in 2019. Turkey ranked the 15 th with a defence budget of 20.4 billion dollars among the list of countries with the most defence budgets in 2019. Also, when Turkey's defense budget is compared with its neighbors as of 2019, it is viewed to be at an average value. Moreover, although there are areas to be improved, it is seen that there is a systematic application related to the determining, planning, implementing and checking of defence expenditure and reasonable defence expenditure is defined according to this systematic in Turkey in today's conditions. It is considered that it would be beneficial to conduct more in-depth studies on this subject in the future.

2025

36 7a NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School ADDRESS {City, State, and ZIP Code) fonterev. California 93943-5000 7b. ADDRESS (C/ty. State, and ZIP Code) * These aircraft (as later versions) still active in the forces.... more

2025, RePEc: Research Papers in Economics

The aim of this paper is to examine different shocks to Israel's business cycle from 1960 to 2007 in terms of the relationship between military expenditures and inequality, Gini coefficient. We begin with the assumption that there is a direct effect of higher military expenditures on income inequality levels in Israel. To capture this, we use the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to conduct this kind of different shock analysis and find that military expenditures shock (a rise) has a statistically significant effect on the Gini coefficient index after the first 3 years. This finding implies that military expenditures policies lead to inequality (Gini coefficient) in Israel.

2025

This paper has investigated effects of terrorism and defence expenditure on economic growth using by Feder-Ram model with panel data for frequently terrorist attacked countries for low and high income during the period of 1989-2002. The test results of the random effects and fixed effects models indicate that the externality of defence expenditure on economic growth has a negative significant effect in high income countries and has a negative insignificant effect in low income countries. The size effects of defence expenditure have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in both high and low income countries. While terrorism has a negative effect on economic growth in low income group, the effect of terrorism incidents on the economic growth in high income group countries is not significant.

2025, DergiPark (Istanbul University)

This study uses the dynamic panel data Feder-Ram model to analyze possible direct and indirect (external or productivity enhancer) effects of the health expenditures on economic growth for 28 European Union Countries period of 2006-2015. The main findings obtained from the study; The Feder-Ram equations show that the direct effect of healthcare expenditures on economic growth is negative and statistically significant. However, the indirect effect of healthcare expenditures on other sectors are positive and significant. The healthcare expenditures increase the productivity of labour factor and thus, the efficiency on other sectors and consequently, healthcare expenditures provide a positive contribution to production. Results obtained from the equations have shown that indirect effect is higher than direct effect. As a result, it can be smoothly said that the net effect of healthcare expenditures is positive.

2025

Bu calisma 1999-2012 donemini kapsayan 31 Yuksek Gelirli OECD ulkesine ait askeri harcamalarin, egitim harcamalarinin, saglik harcamalarinin, sosyal harcamalar ve diger transfer harcamalarinin merkezi devlet borclari uzerindeki etkilerini sabit etkiler modelini kullanarak ve degiskenler arasindaki nedensellik iliskilerini ise PVAR dinamik panel veri modelini Panel OLS ve GMM ile ayri ayri tahmin ederek analiz etmektedir. Sabit etkiler modeli askeri harcamalar ve saglik harcamalarinin merkezi devlet borcu uzerinde sirasiyla olumlu ve olumsuz etkileri oldugunu ortaya gostermistir. Dinamik nedensellik ve etki tepki analizlerine gore, saglik harcamalari haric, diger harcama tiplerinden merkezi devlet borcuna dogru nedensellik iliskisi mevcuttur. Bununla beraber, iki yonlu nedensellik iliskisi sadece merkezi devlet borcu ve askeri harcamalar arasinda bulunmustur

2025

ECONOMIC GROWTH Corresponding Author: SERDAR KURT , Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Department of Econometrics 1720 Canakkale, e-mail: serdarkurt10@gmail.com ERDAL T.KARAGOL ,Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Faculty of Political Sciences Department of Political Sciences And Public Administration, Ankara e-mail: erdaltanaskaragol@gmail.com.tr ___________________________________________________________________________ Abstract

2025, Defence and Peace Economics

With the end of the Cold War and apartheid, a process of demilitarisation and dramatic cuts in military spending has marked the transition to democracy in South Africa. Between 1989 and 1997 the South African defence budget was cut by more than 50% in real terms, with most of the cuts coming from the procurement budget, which was cut by nearly 70% in real terms during the same period. These cuts have had a significant impact on the country's defence industrial base. However, there has been surprisingly little research on the changes to defence companies that have taken place since the late 1980s. This paper makes a start at rectifying that deficiency by providing an analysis of the restructuring of the major defence dependent companies over the period 1988-97. It uses a number of financial ratios and other measures of corporate performance to compare their experience with non-defence companies in the rest of the South African economy during the same period. 1 This paper is based on research currently being undertaken as part of a project on Defence Industrial Restructuring, Conversion and Economic Growth in South Africa, funded by the Leverhulme Trust whose support is gratefully acknowledged.

2025, A União Europeia como Ator Global

A América do Sul ainda é tratada hoje como uma área sem muita
significância do ponto de vista estratégico-militar, devido à ausência de
longos conflitos entre os Estados da região. Dessa forma, ao contrário de
todas as demais áreas do sistema internacional, a região não apresentaria
problemas sérios quanto a hipóteses de guerra – além de estar distante
dos confrontos entre as grandes potências. Por outro lado, é entendido
que a principal preocupação do ponto de vista da Segurança Nacional
seria com as chamadas “novas ameaças”, tais como o crime organizado,
a migração indocumentada e o terrorismo internacional (Herz, 2002).
Apesar dessa relativa estabilidade, a região ainda é palco de disputas geopolíticas entre os Estados da região, fazendo com que ainda seja
uma área relevante para as relações internacionais. Isso tem sido particularmente verdadeiro já na primeira década do século XX, com disputas
envolvendo, sobretudo, os países da região norte do subcontinente. Desse modo, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo central compreender
o motivo da persistência dessas disputas militarizadas no presente momento.

2025, Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft

Die Industriepolitik der EU erfuhr in den letzten Jahren einige grundlegende programmatische und regulatorische Änderungen und Anpassungen. Im Gefolge der aktuellen wirtschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Transformationstendenzen und den aktuellen geopolitischen Disruptionen (bestimmt durch Krisen, Kriege, Technologie- und Handelskonflikte) erfährt auch die Industriepolitik eine Renaissance. Im globalen Wettstreit um die digitalen und sauberen, aber auch militärischen Technologien der Zukunft stellt sich trotzdem die Frage, ob die Form der europäischen Industriepolitik überhaupt dazu in der Lage ist, adäquat auf diese Entwicklungen zu reagieren. Dieser Artikel beleuchtet Chancen für Österreich, die sich durch die Neuausrichtung Europäischen Industriepolitik ergeben, die Herausforderungen in der Umsetzung wie Österreichs Industriepolitik sich in industriepolitische Vorhaben der EU einbinden kann. Diese Frage stellt sich insbesondere aufgrund der zunehmenden Militarisierung der Industriepolitik, die Österreich aufgrund seiner Neutralität nicht mitvollziehen kann. Stattdessen wäre Österreichs Beitrag gerade in den Bereichen Kreislaufwirtschaft sowie ziviler, friedenssichernder industrieller Technologie gefragt.

2025

Large infrastructure projects may change private investors’ expectations, even before projects are completed, generating important multiplier effects in the economy. This paper provides the first causal estimates of both the private investment catalyzation effects and the general economic impacts brought by the announcement of the expansion of the Panama Canal, one of the largest infrastructure projects in Latin America and the Caribbean. The empirical approach relies on the synthetic control method as a way to systematically choose among comparison countries and allow for exact inference techniques in small-sample settings. Our results indicate that the announcement of the Canal expansion project, which was formalized by a national referendum in 2006, stimulated significant increases in Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation. Increases account for approximately US$10 billion between 2006-2011 and up to US$47 billion between 2006-2016, mainly driven by increases in construction inves...

2025, Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval

O presente estudo qualitativo objetiva analisar os principais aspectos
conceituais, normativos, procedimentais e as dinâmicas de interação
entre as partes envolvidas na prática de compensações decorrentes de
compras ou contratações de produtos e serviços de interesse da Defesa,
realizadas junto a empresas brasileiras do setor aeronáutico. A pesquisa
apresenta a estrutura normativa e descreve a dinâmica da interação
entre as empresas brasileiras, as subcontratadas estrangeiras e a Força
Aérea Brasileira. O artigo detalha os procedimentos de contratação de
produtos e serviços de interesse da Defesa no COMAER, destacando
as fases do Ciclo de Vida de Sistemas e Materiais da Aeronáutica,
que incluem a análise de possibilidades de transferência tecnológica
e participação da indústria brasileira utilizando a ferramenta de
compensação de defesa. Além disso, evidencia o processo relativo
aos Acordos de Compensação, dividido em quatro fases: prospecção
de necessidades, concepção e emissão de requisitos, aquisição do
Produto de Defesa e execução do Acordo de Compensação.

2025

This study applies John Kenneth Galbraith's theory of social balance to the informal economy. Galbraith highlights the critical need for robust public investments in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and social security to maintain a balance between private and public sectors. The unchecked dominance of private interests, coupled with inadequate public services, exacerbates social inequality and leads to higher informalization. Utilizing global data from 156 countries for 1990-2020, this paper employs panel data methods to examine the relationship between social imbalance and informality. It hypothesizes a U-shaped correlation, where both insufficient and excessive public spending relative to private spending promote informal economic activity. The findings confirm the existence of this relationship, highlighting the importance of achieving an effective social balance to minimize informality, reduce inequality, and promote inclusive economic growth.

2025

This paper revisits and synthesizes John Kenneth Galbraith's concepts of technostructure, social balance, and countervailing power to offer a novel framework for analyzing the relationship between military spending and economic inequality. Building on Galbraith's insights, the paper argues that the persistence of high military expenditures, despite the relative decline in civilian public investment, stems from the entrenched power of the technostructure-specifically the military-industrial complex-resulting in a deepening of social imbalance. In societies where countervailing powers such as labor unions are weak, the inequality-worsening effects of militarization become particularly pronounced. Building on this theoretical synthesis, the paper presents empirical evidence that the inequality-worsening effect of military spending intensifies as union density declines, based on global data from 1990 to 2019.

2025

Economic benefits of joint procurement arise from increased bargaining power relative to the contractor and from economies of scale in production. There is, however, a puzzle: why are such procurements so few? This paper introduces a bargaining model with forward-looking expectations about the scale of delivery contracts. It is shown that the price sensitivity of the scale of acquisition is favourable for the buying partnership as it tends to depress the bargaining price. Several explanations are proposed for why it is hard to align the buyers’ incentives. First, the preferences concerning the properties of the products are countryspecific with divergent implications for national security. Second, a country with a low valuation of the product has more bargaining power than a country with a high valuation and may expect a side payment from the partner of the procurement, while the latter may not have sufficient incentives to pay. Third, the gains from cooperative procurement in terms...

2025, Defence and Peace Economics

Economic benefits of joint procurement arise from increased bargaining power relative to the contractor and from economies of scale in production. There is, however, a puzzle: why are such procurements so few? This paper introduces a bargaining model with forward-looking expectations about the scale of delivery contracts. It is shown that the price sensitivity of the scale of acquisition is favourable for the buying partnership as it tends to depress the bargaining price. Several explanations are proposed for why it is hard to align the buyers' incentives. First, the preferences concerning the properties of the products are countryspecific with divergent implications for national security. Second, a country with a low valuation of the product has more bargaining power than a country with a high valuation and may expect a side payment from the partner of the procurement, while the latter may not have sufficient incentives to pay. Third, the gains from cooperative procurement in terms of economies of scale for the producer may not be sufficient to compensate for the conflicting preferences among the contractors. Fourth, while the future unpredictability of technologies or the future risks of deteriorating national security might support longer-term joint procurements, short-term opportunism tends to prevent long-term commitments.

2025

Income inequality remains a critical challenge worldwide, affecting both developed and developing economies. This study evaluates the role of institutional capacity in enhancing the redistributive effectiveness of fiscal policy in reducing income disparities. Using panel data from 60 countries (30 developed, 30 developing) over 2002 2023, the analysis investigates the interaction between fiscal measures (e.g., progressive taxation, targeted spending) and institutional quality (e.g., administrative efficiency, governance integrity). Findings reveal that robust institutions amplify the impact of fiscal interventions, leading to more equitable outcomes, particularly in developed economies. Conversely, weaker institutions in developing countries limit redistributive efforts, often exacerbating inequality. The results underscore the necessity of integrating institutional reforms with fiscal policies to achieve sustainable equity. This research provides theoretical insights, empirical evidence and actionable recommendations for policymakers. Also, this study is one of the few that systematically compares the impact of institutional capacity on income inequality between developed and developing countries. While existing literature frequently examines the effects of fiscal policies on inequality, it lacks a comprehensive analysis detailing how these effects differ based on institutional capacity. This study fills this gap by providing new empirical findings.

2025

The theory of alliances allows us to understand the nature and the functioning of alliances, particularly NATO and its recent evolution. However, NATO remains a unique and specific example and the studies applying the numerous hypotheses and conclusions of alliance theory to other organizations are rare. Consequently, this article tries to compare the characteristics of three organizations (ECOWAS, SADC and ASEAN) with NATO. These three organizations are not explicitly military alliances and their statutes and missions are less precise and less defined than those of NATO. Indeed, they can pursue economic objectives, as for example, economic development. An analysis of data from these four organizations allows us to compare the similarities and the differences between these organizations according to their fundamental objectives and purposes.

2025

This study examines how climate change influences military spending, using temperature variation and the frequency of adverse climatic events as proxies for climate stress. Employing a panel dataset of 143 countries from 1980 to 2018, the analysis explores the long-term relationship. The results indicate significant long-run negative associations between adverse climatic events, temperature changes, and military spending, along with a positive relationship with health spending. These patterns may suggest that, in response to climate-induced fiscal pressures, countries tend to shift resources-at least partially-away from defense and toward disaster response and health-related needs. The findings contribute to the emerging literature on the fiscal impacts of climate change, demonstrating how climate-induced pressures on public budgets may reshape national security priorities. Overall, this research provides empirical insights into the interplay between climate change and military spending, addressing a critical gap in both climatesecurity and defense economics literature.

2025

We use a relatively large annual (unbalanced) crosscountry panel data set that includes the Gini index and the estimated household income inequality as the two relevant inequality metrics and covers the period from 1950 to 2018 for 159 countries, and we investigate the response of two inequality metrics to International Monetary Fund (IMF) standby programs. Our empirical analysis indicates that in countries where the informal sector size (as % GDP) is relatively larger, the extent of income inequality increases after IMF standby agreements. We also show that the opposite is true when the informal sector size is small, that is, inequality declines after these IMF programs.

2025

This paper presents original evidence to enhance understanding of the nexus between the informal sector and the economic well-being of women. Women encountering substantial obstacles in accessing formal employment opportunities tend to gravitate towards informal sector employment, which is characterized by lower productivity, lower wages, restricted access to credit and training, and an absence of social security coverage. Using two novel datasets of the size of the informal economy and female labor income share of 148 countries for the period 1991-2018, we show that while informality is associated with lower female labor income share in general, the results vary significantly with respect to countries with different income groups and development level. While there is not generally a significant and consistent association in high-income countries, the correlation is significantly negative in low-income countries and positive in middle-income ones.

2025

In this paper, we introduce a unique dataset derived from a survey conducted among 450 Syrian refugee workers and the owners/managers of the firms in which they are employed in Istanbul, Turkey. We utilise this data to investigate the connection between the wage-productivity gap and perceived economic and social discrimination. The findings of the study indicate that individuals facing a wider wage-productivity gap tend to report higher levels of economic and social discrimination. These results remain consistent even after incorporating various variables at both the worker and firm levels into the analysis. These findings imply potential policy recommendations that policymakers should take into account.

2025

This study addresses the underexplored dimension of the relationship between military expenditures and gender inequality, drawing upon the insights of feminist security and international relations scholars. The influence of militarization on gender inequality is profound, manifesting itself significantly in both conflict and peacetime situations. The destruction of essential infrastructure further restricts women's access to vital resources. In peacetime, the convergence of militarization and patriarchy reinforces women's secondary roles in society, while higher military expenditures can divert resources from social spending, disproportionately affecting women and children reliant on public services. Despite extensive theoretical discussions, empirical studies on this nexus are limited. This paper contributes by presenting original evidence using a comprehensive dataset spanning 1991-2019, examining the Female Labor Income Share across over 100 countries. Findings reveal that militarization correlates with reduced the Female Labor Income Share, underscoring the urgency of addressing this critical linkage between militarization and gender inequality.

2025

Using a panel data set of 160 economies from 1950 to 2018, this paper examines the relationship between military expenditures and economic, health-related, education, environmental, and social indicators of sustainable development. The... more

2025

Using two novel datasets of the size of the informal economy and income inequality, this study provides evidence on the nexus of informality and inequality with particular attention to the feminization of labor, a phenomenon closely related to labor market informalization. Using annual crosscountry panel data from 125 countries for 1963-2018, the study reveals a relationship between the size of the informal sector and income inequality, which is more likely to be negative in richer countries and positive in poor ones. It also shows that, while higher women's labor force participation is associated with lower income inequality, this negative correlation is cancelled by the presence of an informal sector.

2025

This paper investigates the nexus of military expenditure, income inequality, and profit rate, applying the non-parametric technique of Partial Least Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) to 21 countries for 1988-2008. The findings suggest that military expenditure has a positive effect on income inequality while income inequality has a positive impact on profit rate. In contrast, military expenditure has a (relatively small) positive effect on profit rate. However, these results change significantly once unobserved heterogeneity is considered. Accordingly, based on four segments, although the positive effect of income inequality on profit rate remains the same for each segment, for some segments, the effect of military expenditure on income inequality and profit rate become negative.

2025

This paper introduces a novel application of the Lotka-Volterra model to analyze the dynamic interplay between military and civilian government spending in the United States from 1960 to 2019. Drawing on the classical 'guns versus butter' framework, we conceptualize military spending as a predator and civilian spending as prey, both constrained by GDP as a shared resource. By constructing a system of nonlinear differential equations, we model inter-sectoral competition, long-term memory effects, and time-varying growth and carrying capacities. The model reveals strong asymmetries in budgetary interaction: military expenditures exert a disproportionately negative impact on civilian spending, while being more sensitive to shared constraints, suggesting a prey-like vulnerability. Using a genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we demonstrate that shifts in growth rates and sectoral capacities correspond closely with historical inflection points, such as the Cold War and the War on Terror. Our findings offer compelling evidence of Lotka-Volterra-like oscillatory behavior in public budget allocation, underscoring the strategic dominance of military priorities over social investments. This dynamic modeling approach provides new insights into the systemic trade-offs embedded in fiscal policy and raises critical questions about the sustainability of militarized economic strategies.

2025, SN Business & Economics

This study analyses the distributional effects of corruption on public spending in developing countries. It hypothesized that public expenditures with long and complex budgetary procedures are more prone to corruption. However, the new instrumental variables method proposed by Norkute et al. (J Economet 10.1016(J Economet 10. /j. jeconom.2020(J Economet 10. .04.008, 2021)), was used to correct for the endogenous nature of corruption and the cross-sectional dependence bias of the panel units. The empirical analysis involved data from a sample of 40 countries, observed over the period 2005-2018. The main results show that the bias induced by corruption on the allocation of public expenditure depends as much on the opportunity offered by the expenditure in terms of payment of bribes as on the recipient of this expenditure. Investment spending with complex procedures is favored by corrupt bureaucrats over current spending. Wages and salaries are favored by corruption because they increase the financial benefits of bureaucrats. National and international anti-corruption institutions need to pay particular attention to the channels through which these public expenditure components are processed to establish greater transparency.

2025, SN Business & Economics

2025, Revista Visión Conjunta

2025, Defence and Peace Economics

In Spain, the existence of industries devoted to the production of military equipment dates back to the thirteenth century. The success of the Spanish empire of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries can be explained, in part, by the early production of battleships, fire guns, gunpowder and explosives, artillery pieces, and swords. Some of the factories created during this period of history are still in operation today, although deeply transformed and integrated within larger and modern organizations. The establishment in 1941 of the National Industry Institute (Instituto Nacional de Industria, INI) was an important event for the Spanish military industrial base, since it had an outstanding role in the creation and maintenance of several defence firms, restructuring old arsenals, and military establishments that needed deep transformations in order to adapt to the new scenarios. Even if the INI had quite a success in consolidating some of the firms that eventually became prime defence contractors at a later stage, the modernization of military material arrived in the mid 1950s from overseas, thanks to agreements with the USA and in detriment of national development. However, the lack of a significant market hindered modernization and access to new technologies. In a first attempt to overcome these structural weaknesses, the government passed in the early 1970s the Law of Endowments (Ley de Dotaciones). The law was oriented to guaranteeing minimum procurement expenditure in order to give continuity to material acquisitions directed to the national industry. This allowed launching for the first time big industrial programs, especially those referred to international cooperation (e.g. the F-5 with the USA and the Daphne submarine with France). At the end of the 1970s, there were in Spain around 35 solid companies and several research and development centers that

2025

Do we get value or money?" or "Do we have an attractive ROI?" are vital questions that any organisation is encountering today in pursuing an exploitation of the Internet. No matter whether exploitation is in regard to a focus on internal efficiency or external effectiveness the organisation carefully needs to verify the investment in terms of expected costs and likely benefits. The research question of the paper is to identify the different approaches to cost-benefit methods of Internet investments and to provide an overview of what the approaches sheds light upon. Moreover, the paper provides two examples of cost-benefit analyses. Finally, the paper provides a applicable short-list of important activities and decisions in a cost-benefit analysis. The paper suggests that cost-benefit analyses should not only contain content variables, but also include flow variables of the communication process, i.e. the variables of volume, data integration, diversity and span.

2025, Defence economics

The causal relationship between defense spending and economic performance is reinvestigated using structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). A specified structural VAR model is not affected by the ordering of variables. Two possible macro structural models are proposed. The price level and unemployment innovations in the structural models explain more of the fluctuations of the defense variable than in the unstructured recursive models (URVAR). The effect of output on defense spending is exaggerated in the recursive model when compared to the structural model for one ordering of variables. An interesting finding is that the impact on defense spending by shocks in the price level is increased significantly with postwar data in SVAR as well as URVAR.

2025, Defence Economics

2025, ACTA UNIVERSITATIS DANUBIUS

Any resource channeled into security has a trade-off effect, as it denies other sectors of the economy the needed resources that could be employed to enhance economic growth and welfare of the citizenry. This study examined the possible impacts of internal security expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria. Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimating technique, the study estimated both the short-run and the long-run interactions between the chosen variables. The estimated result found internal security to be positively and significantly related to economic growth in the shortrun but exhibits a negative and significant relationship with economic growth in the long-run. The result also revealed a negative and significant relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. Finally, the test for structural breaks found evidence for five breakpoints which interestingly corresponded with the periods of some structural and government policy changes in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that resources to be channeled on security should be considered cautiously as not to adversely affect economic growth. Secondly, government should employ robust policies that would encourage foreign investments into the economy.

2025, İŞ HAYATINDA ARTAN GHOSTİNG EĞİLİMLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Bu çalışma, dijitalleşmenin etkisiyle iş yaşamında giderek yaygınlaşan ve ciddi sonuçlar
doğuran ghosting fenomenini ele almakta ve bu davranışın iş gücü piyasası üzerindeki etkilerini
incelemektedir. Ghosting davranışı sadece flört ilişkileriyle sınırlı değildir aynı zamanda işe
alım süreçlerinde ve işyerlerinde de ciddi bir sorun hâline gelmiştir. Çalışmada, ghosting
davranışının başvuru sahipleri, çalışanlar ve işverenler üzerindeki etkileri kapsamlı bir şekilde
analiz edilmiştir. Araştırma ghosting olgusuna dair mevcut akademik literatürü kapsamlı bir
literatür taraması yöntemiyle incelemektedir. Altı farklı akademik çalışma detaylı bir şekilde
analiz edilerek bu alandaki boşluklar ve temel bulgular belirlenmiştir. Bu analizler ışığında;
adayların ghosting tutumları, yöneticilerin çalışanlara karşı sergilediği ghosting tutumları,
ghostingin ruhsal yansımaları ve iş yerinde iletişime olan etkileri öne serilmiştir. Elde edilen
bulgular; ghostingin sadece bireysel sorumsuzluktan kaynaklanmadığını, aynı zamanda
kurumsal çekicilik, geribildirim eksiklikleri, işyerindeki iletişim sorunları ve pandemi gibi
dışsal etkiler gibi faktörlerle şekillendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, ghostingin iş yerindeki
çalışan bağlılığı, iş memnuniyeti ve verimlilik üzerinde ciddi olumsuz etkiler yarattığı
gözlemlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak çalışma, ghosting tutumunun iş dünyasında daha fazla dikkat
çektiğini ve bu durumu engellemeye yönelik iletişim odaklı stratejilerin oluşturulması
gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

2025, Small Wars Journal

Erik Prince, founder of the Blackwater private military company (PMC), has signed a contract with the Haitian government to intervene using lethal operations against the criminal gangs threatening to fully overrun Port-au-Prince.] The Haitian government confirmed in late April 2025 that they were in the progress of integrating “international, private firms” with their police and security forces to suppress the criminal insurgency being waged by these gangs. Additionally, Haiti’s Minister of Economy and Finance,

2025, Revista Brasileira de Estudos Estratégicos

This paper investigates the effects of international embargoes on the development of indigenous defense industries in emerging countries. The hypothesis is that embargoes directly limit the capacity of emerging countries to design and manufacture defense products, mostly by restraining access to technology and markets. Embargoes also affect countries with some manufacturing capability, whose reliance on foreign technology for sensitive content makes them vulnerable to exogenous shocks. The historical-comparative method is used, drawing on the cases of Brazil, India, Turkey and South Africa to test the relations of necessity and sufficiency between international embargoes and the development of indigenous arms industries. The cases are selected among SIPRI Arms Industries Dataset, in the period of 2002-2018, considering countries that are not among International Monetary Fund advanced economies and countries defined by the World Bank as Middle-Income Countries. The study analyzes the cases from 1945 to 2018, to explore the full extent of the process of defense industrialization in the post-World War II, considering three different international power distributions along this period: bipolar distribution, unipolar moment and unbalanced multipolarity. Primary sources, such as internal balances, budgets and policy papers, and secondary sources, filtered through bibliographical review, are used to gather the necessary information in each country. The findings suggest that international embargoes have a significant impact on the development of indigenous defense industries in emerging countries, limiting their access to technology, markets and specialized inputs, forcing them to invest in import substitution strategies with limited results in international markets. The case studies reveal the importance of domestic technological capabilities, policy stability and coordination among different actors in developing successful indigenous defense industries in emerging countries. Also, the results suggest that the countries that specialized in technological niches are more prone to succeed in international markets.

2025

Quand Donald Trump revendique l’annexion du Groenland au nom de La Défense nationale des USA, il faut lui rappeler l’histoire nucléaire du Groenland entre 1947 et 1968, quand les B-52 de l’US Air Force chargés de bombes atomiques atterrissaient et décollaient de la base de Thule mais aussi s’écrasaient dans les terres et glaciers du Groenland en perdant des bombes atomiques et des aviateurs, tout en irradiant les zones des crashs et les Inuits qui y vivaient.

2025, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences

This paper examines the relationship between defense expentures, income inequality and growth in Turkey for the period of 1970-2008. In the study, the problem of lack of time series data has been overcome by using manufacturing pay inequality index constructed by Theil T Statistic. Although there are numerous studies that examine the different aspects of military spending in Turkey, there are few studies that analyse the impact of military spending on income distribution in Turkey. Considering this lack in the literature, the study, utilizing basic cointegration and VAR model, aims to contribute to the literaure