Emerging Markets Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

This is a republish of the NASSCOM Emerge blog: A Macro economy view point by Shrikrishna Prakash, Saravu prior to September 2008 market collapse & USD 700B bailout. It has played out. Scenario Around 80% of foreign exchange/trade... more

This is a republish of the NASSCOM Emerge blog: A Macro economy view point by Shrikrishna Prakash, Saravu prior to September 2008 market collapse & USD 700B bailout. It has played out.

Scenario
Around 80% of foreign exchange/trade transactions is denominated in US dollars(USD) and a majority of these in crude oil import export. Crude being a lever to control USD flow (back to US), its rise impacts balance of payment for net crude oil importers, inflation and increase in cost of capital for business. Hence stocks discovering its prices to the re-adjusted EPS. In December 2007 realized time was not far off for business to chase funds and Private Equity (PE) and not the other way round.

Wall Street Outcomes
The heady day’s perceived profits in instruments, are now ill-liquid assets. To improve liquidity, earlier banks sought petro USD’s, some consolidated within Wall Street and others are filing for bankruptcy. About USD 450 billion of illiquid assets from various banks crept into Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae. Freddie & Fannie had to be bailed out by the US Federal Reserve(Fed). Fed released more than USD 250 billion in emergency funding. Fed has to clean up its balance sheet. New laws are being enacted giving treasury powers to create market for ill-liquid assets, buy and sell assets to tune of USD 700 billion.

OTC USD derivatives as an enabler ?
Most of USD’s are derivative positions and are traded on secretive OTC. As one of the steps to arrest the USD decline, central banks led by Fed in a synchronized manner went long on USD to the point of triggering short covering and shoring up USD. Central banks long positions were/are in the money. Globally, institutional investors who went long USD post the short squeeze upsurge, will feel the long squeeze when the intervention impact reduces and USD starts depreciating. This will make them square off and take on losses. (Read from central banks, as the coordinated entities would have booked profits at USD highs and positioned to buy at lower levels).

USA’s borrowings are denominated in home currency and the above process will assist in shoring up current assets in Fed’s balance sheet helping even out the ill-liquid assets. The reduction in OTC leveraged USD and a better Fed balance sheet enables printing USD in large quantity, controlling inflationary pressures- strategic in the world order. The consumption story will continue.

Possibilities
As the effect of coordinated intervention reduces, the USD is expected to weaken. If countries consume more USD’s, it will help ease the equation, else crude will continue to remain as a lever.

If Fed’s balance sheet gets cleaned up with no great inflationary effect, USD could get stronger. However to reach that state, the implementation of new monetary framework will have the affect of a “Manthan”, a sanskrit word for churning of the ocean to obtain nectar, when consumed attains immortality.

India over the next 18–24 months is expected to reduce crude import to an extent of 40%, a result of increasing production from KG-D6 block. On this materializing, equivalent USD’s will find its way back, assuming India’s orders for importing nuclear reactors & ancillaries will not off-set the reduction. Industrialist Mr. Godrej believes India has the potential to be a net exporter aswell. All these means the RBI may build USD reserves helping maintain USD 80–20 balance. The rupee’s (INR) movement depends on above equation, ECB, FII money flows and the existing flow dynamics.

Closing Comments
USA on its part will manoeuvre back to maintain world order and invent new “alpha seeking opportunities”. “Manthan’s” impact on India, its domestic story in healthcare, materials, industrial’s, infrastructure, financial services and software product space will be keenly watched.

Disclaimer: Views expressed here are personal.