European Foreign and Security Policy Research Papers (original) (raw)

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- Languages, Eastern European Studies, European Studies, International Relations

The war scnearios for Ukraine

- by Sait Yılmaz
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- European Foreign and Security Policy

The international analysis carried out in the first two decades after the fall of communism brings us new information regarding the evolution of the influence of NATO on European security and politics. This article aims to analyze the role of NATO in ensuring European security seen through the research of the most significant German think tanks. It is important to underline the fact that the concept of "security" is not unanimously understood by the international environment. After the collapse of the bipolar system of international relations, various structures engaged in the study of international relations set themselves the goal of identifying the signs of a newly emerging system and offering their assessments to the actions of the main actors trying to participate in its formation. The USA set the course for the construction of a unipolar international system, which would be guided by the USA. This approach is most often observed in the studies of American experts on global security problems. (Michta, 2014:36-54

Ukraine is an outsider in terms of political values and standards of governance. Transparency, efficiency and accountability, rubber-stamped in official papers and declarations, are superseded by other standards: informal networks, patronage, and a patron-client system are what truly shape the performance of state institutions, making them serve the interests of the elected rather than the electors. The article traces the rise of Viktor Yanukovych to the Presidential office through extensive use of these informal patterns and formation of a vertikal of his own, laying preconditions for his fall.

- by Yegor Vasylyev
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- Eastern European Studies, Russian Studies, International Relations, Geopolitics

In 1998 the European Union (EU) launched a Common European Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Since then, the CSDP has been the focus of a growing body of political and scholarly evaluations. While most commentators have acknowledged shortfalls in European military capabilities, many remain cautiously optimistic about the CSDP’s future. This article uses economic alliance theory to explain why EU member states have failed, so far, to create a potent common defence policy and to evaluate the policy’s future prospects. It demonstrates, through theoretical, case study-based and statistical analysis, that CSDP is more prone to collective action problems than relevant institutional alternatives, and concludes that the best option for Europeans is to refocus attention fully on cooperation within a NATO framework.
Keywords: CSDP, Economic Alliance Theory, NATO, collective action problems, burdensharing, crisis management

Ostatniego ćwierćwiecza polskich przemian politycznych dotyka i niniejsza publikacja, która jest zbiorem artykułów przygotowanych przez pracowników naukowych i doktorantów z różnych ośrodków w kraju. Prace dotykają zarówno polityki wewnętrznej, jak i zagranicznej państwa, co oznacza, że odnoszą się do stosunkowo dużego obszaru poznawczego. Zdecydowaną przewagę uzyskały w tej tematyce problemy zewnątrzpaństwowe odnoszące się do Unii Europejskiej, polityki zagranicznej, kilku aspektów bezpieczeństwa europejskiego i międzynarodowego, migracji wewnątrzeuropejskich czy Kościoła katolickiego. Wszystkie te kwestie mieszczą się w ogólnych zarysach „wybranych problemów politycznych” państwa polskiego w latach 1989-2014. Zadaniem niniejszej publikacji stało się przybliżenie Czytelnikom takich problemów politycznych Polski z ostatniego ćwierćwiecza, które wymagają dodatkowego komentarza, pogłębionych analiz podmiotowych i przedmiotowych oraz ciągle aktualnego spojrzenia metodologicznego i merytorycznego.

- by Małgorzata Sikora-Gaca
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- Foreign Policy Analysis, Belarusian Studies, NATO, Security

This chapter provides a comprehensive
analysis and overview of the state of the literature
on the EU’s relations with NATO and
OSCE. We identify and take stock of four
main themes in the growing literature on both
partnerships: the evolution and drivers of the
respective interorganizational relations, overlapping
policy fields, partnership and rivalry,
and impact and effectiveness.

- by Joachim Koops
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- International Relations, International Security, Security, European Union
- by Endre Szénási
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- European Studies, Energy Economics, Renewable Energy, Energy

This paper aims to give a brief overview on EU counter- terrorism policy and on the role that migration controls have within it.

The 2016 EU Global Strategy for Foreign and Security Policy (EUGS) is aimed at adapting the EU’s external action to a more complex and uncertain global scenario. It means a visible “pragmatic turn” and a marked focus in societal resilience and in its neighborhood. This chapter provides a description as well as an interpretation of the EUGS, taking into account its institutional foundations, its material content and its nature as a security narrative; that is, as a discursive device that shapes the identity and values of the EU, as well as the internal–external axis of European security and its external action, thus entailing noticeable normative dilemmas. The chapter concludes that the EUGS contributes to shaping a new security legitimation for an EU that suffers a deep existential crisis.

- by Giovanni Finizio
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- European History, European Studies, Global Governance, European Foreign Policy

One of the reasons for the low effectiveness of the European Union’s policy in the Mediterranean is the discrepancy between the EU’s international identity and the national interests of its Member States.The EU has been building its international identity on values that are proper to political idealism. In large measure, however, the EU’s declared aims have not been consistent with the national interests of its Member States. In effect, while Member States are able to adopt general guidelines for the EU foreign policy, translating such guidelines into specific actions often proves impossible.The aim of this article is to analyse the low effectiveness of the EU’s policy in the Mediterranean region in terms of the discrepancies between the idealistic concept deriving from the EU’s international identity on the one hand, and its realistic actions based on the EU’s Member States’ national interests, on the other. As the European Union’s foreign policy is shaped at the intergovernmental level, national interests tend to take the upper hand. The Mediterranean policy of five EU-Member States will be analysed – France, Spain, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom.

This publication was produced as part of the CATS Network Project, titled Turkey as a Partner and Challenge for European Security”. The project is being conducted by a consortium of the International Relations Council of Turkey (IRCT), the Center for International and European Studies (CIES) at Kadir Has University, and the Institute of International Relations (IRR) at Panteion University.

- by Mustafa Aydin and +1
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- Foreign Policy Analysis, Turkey And Europe, Turkish Foreign Policy, European Foreign and Security Policy

Musu, C., ‘European Union Policy towards the Arab-Israeli Peace Process. The Quicksands of
Politics’, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke. Hardback. 288ppg

French President Emmanuel Macron has proclaimed the need to engage in dialogue with Russia and work with it to build an architecture of trust and security in Europe; he has managed to partially revive the channels of communication (especially in the political sphere) between the two countries, and also to deepen and intensify it (mainly on the issues of regional conflicts and advanced technology). Macron has also tried to give this policy a European dimension. However, there has been no positive breakthrough in bilateral relations, and talks have failed to produce significant results. This is due to the attitude of Moscow, which has welcomed the initiatives of the French president, but at the same time has not made his efforts any easier, as it hopes to be able to exploit the divisions within the Western community. Instead it has continued its aggressive foreign policy, with no intention of making concessions in order to normalise relations. Paris’s unwillingness to violate solidarity with its allies, together with its continued participation in the sanctions against Russia, have led to growing exasperation in the Kremlin. Despite this, it appears that Macron will not abandon his attempts to bring about détente in relations with Moscow, which is likely to maintain a passive-reactive attitude towards his efforts.

In November 2014, Frontex started its Southern Mediterranean border monitoring operation Triton, followed in June 2015 by the Common Security and Defence Policy anti-smuggling mission EU Naval Force Mediterranean (EUNAVFOR Med) 'Sophia'. Both operations' outward communication has placed considerable emphasis on the conduct of maritime search and rescue. Still, this commitment was not matched by consistent action. Triton and EUNAVFOR Med have conducted a relatively limited number of search and rescue operations, prioritizing border control and anti-smuggling tasks. This article explains the gap between the European Union missions' humanitarian rhetoric and an operational conduct primarily focusing on curbing irregular migration as a form of organized hypocrisy. Decoupling talk and action allowed Triton and EUNAVFOR Med to reconcile the conflicting expectations arising from European governments' willingness to reduce migrant arrivals and the normative imperative to act against the loss of life at sea. However, the European Union missions' organized hypocrisy had several negative externalities, hindering effective management of the humanitarian crisis offshore Libya.

In 2005, the European Union’s (EU) coordinator of counterterrorism policies quipped that: ‘You can’t
get closer to the heart of national sovereignty than national security and intelligence services. Yet in
Brussels we have these analysts working together for the first time’.1 Despite the inherent sensitivities
that exist within the field, the EU has considerably increased its resources for intelligence sharing and
analysis in the decade that followed this comment. Yet, this cooperation has largely gone unnoticed –
within academia as well as in the public domain. This report analyses the organisation and process of
European intelligence cooperation and the effect that this cooperation is having on European foreign
policy. In the policy recommendations, it is argued that the EU intelligence system – following phases
of boosting efficiency and legitimacy – should now be developed with an eye on the interaction between
producers and consumers of intelligence.

- by Björn Fägersten
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- European Studies, Intelligence, International Security, Security Studies

The year 2014 has marked a re-emergence of a global attentiveness towards African affairs. China’s interest in African markets and the first ever US-African summit means that the continent is once again becoming appealing to international powerhouses. The EU wants to keep up with the pace of global developments, and thus works with international actors and individual African states to boost its regional prestige and promote sustainable growth and development across the continent. This will subsequently stabilise the EU’s neighbourhood and open new financial opportunities. For this purpose the EU promotes a comprehensive approach towards its African partners that blends broad tools ranging from diplomacy to military force. This ensures coordinated policies that simultaneously improve all sectors of economic, political and social life. The most vivid example of such an approach is the EU’s engagement in Somalia, where the EU’s mission and a wide spectrum of developmental, humanitarian and financial initiatives promote long-term sustainable development and enhance security in the state and beyond. The comprehensive approach fosters an environment where citizens and state institutions develop in a locally owned fashion that strengthens African-led reforms with minimal external interference. The comprehensive approach is depicted as a crucial mechanism in the EU’s foreign policy arsenal towards fragile, less-developed nations, with a great potential for its engagement elsewhere. In this work, the comprehensive approach will be placed under a theoretical framework and examined as a crucial tool for the EU’s African policies. Next, its definition will be provided together with a thorough analysis of its components (full cycle approach, security-development nexus, financial support, civil-military coordination). Then Somalia will be evaluated as the most vivid example of the approach’s effectiveness. Finally, some challenges and solutions will be drawn in concluding remarks.

- by Hana A Holla
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- Peace and Conflict Studies, International Security, Conflict, Security

History of post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina is marked by succession of protracted crises, which, despite different causes, share common traits over the years. Flawed political system with unique provisions giving unqualified veto powers to all three constituent peoples gave birth to political elites which profit from continuing paralysis of the country and have no practical interest in its progress. First part of this article analyzes the development and characteristics of the political crisis in BiH during the past decade. Part II of the article provides different angle of view of the same political situation, written from the perspective of a foreign diplomat having the opportunity to observe workings of the BiH politics first-hand.

- by Todor Koburov and +1
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- International Relations, International Law, Bulgaria, Diplomacy

LSE IDEAS Special Report on EU Enlargement, London School of Economics and Political Science, September 2013.

Die größte strategische Herausforderung für die Herausbildung eines stabilen und geeinten ukrainischen Nationalstaats und das größte strukturelle Hindernis für eine erfolgreiche wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Ukraine bleiben weiterhin die russischen Maßnahmen der hybriden Kriegsführung. Obwohl auch weitere ukrainische Reformfortschritte wichtig sind, wird westliches Engagement entscheidend dafür sein, die Effekte des fortdauernden russischen Hybridkrieges gegen die Ukraine einzuschränken. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschreibt der Aufsatz sechs alternative Entwicklungsszenarien der kommenden Jahre.

- by Andreas Umland
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- International Security, Strategic Studies, Security Studies, Ukrainian Studies
- by Przemysław Bednarski
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- Foreign Policy Analysis, Polish History, Cold War, American Foreign Policy

Die geringe Aufmerksamkeit der deutschen Elite und Öffentlichkeit für die Ukraine ist vor dem Hintergrund der hohen Opferzahlen der Ukrainer im Zweiten Weltkrieg geschichtsvergessen. Trotz einer Reihe begrüßenswerter deutscher Initiativen bezüglich der Ukraine, bestimmen nach wie vor Naivität und Stereotypen das Verhältnis vieler Deutscher zum zweitgrößten Flächenstaat Europas. Das deutsche Engagement in russischen geoökonomischen Projekten wird in Kiew mit Furcht und Verbitterung wahrgenommen. Eine Reorientierung der Ostpolitik und stärkere Präsenz der Ukraine im öffentlichen Leben Deutschlands ist überfällig. Eine intensivere deutsche Beschäftigung mit ukrainischen außen- und innenpolitischen Belangen würde eine schrittweise Heranführung der Ukraine an die EU zum Ziel haben.

- by Andreas Umland
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- Eastern European Studies, Energy, Energy Policy, Ukrainian Studies

A comprehensive analysis of the European Union's foreign policy over 40 years, this study describes how multilateralism has been used in the fields of peace, security, and military crisis management. Relying on detailed case studies, this new research looks at interventions in Macedonia, Bosnia, the Congo, and Chad—and assesses the EU’s cooperation with NATO and the United Nations during these emergencies.

- by Joachim Koops
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- European Studies, European integration, Power (social), NATO

While the European Union has been involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict for several decades, it became increasingly engaged in security sector reform (SSR) following the 1993 Oslo Accords . The Accords thus play a central role, and the EU is committed to working towards the establishment of a Palestinian state . At the heart of this objective lies Security Sector Reform (SSR), which is deemed vital for establishing a Palestinian state capable of governing its own territory. To achieve this, the EU council of ministers responded in 2005 to a request by the Palestinian Authority and established a European Union police mission to the Palestinian territories (EUPOL COPPS) . Headquartered in Ramallah, EUPOL COPPS has 71 international staff members in 2014, with an additional 41 local staff . Its mandate has grown to supporting anti-corruption measures, combatting domestic violence, and strengthening internal accountability .
Some observers have emphasised the mission’s contribution to the goals stated in the 2003 Roadmap for Peace, pointing to progress made in SSR in the West Bank since 2007 . This paper will contrast the EUPOL COPPS’ relative successes in the context of the EU’s goal of contributing to an “independent, democratic and viable Palestinian state”, by examining whether EU action has achieved ‘ownership’ of the structural reforms that the mission works towards, as well as whether enhancing the capability of the PCP really contributes to a Palestinian state that is independent and viable.

A new article by The Moscow Times revealed a mixed reaction to supposed FSB ‘vetting’ of academic scholarship. The Times, which has largely become a holding repository of intense criticism of the Russian government (and no, the irony of a media organization sharply critical of the government for infringing on media freedom has apparently not sunken in yet in Moscow), is clearly siding high on the indignation side of this issue: for the most part the article is a not-so-thinly veiled accusation of Russian intelligence services trying to basically return the country’s academic community to a Soviet-era intellectual censorship system. And while it is true there are examples of Russian academics unfortunately being subjected to investigation and even arrest, there are aspects to this story that are importantly irresponsible and propagandistic.

- by Dr. Matthew Crosston
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- Business, Business Administration, Business Ethics, History

Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the relations between the EU and Russia seem to be in a constant process of deterioration. In an attempt to go beyond traditional analyses, this book wishes to present the underexplored role of strategic communication from a Russian and European perspective and this, through an interdisciplinary approach addressing security, international relations and economic issues. An international team of researchers from the EU and Russia endeavours to provide answers to the major tensions and challenges, in order to create a basis for reconciliation through dialogue and the rethinking of strategic communication in EU-Russia relations. Nine different case studies engage with a variety of issues ranging from geopolitics and security to diplomacy. This book is useful for researchers, specialists and students interested in strategic communication within the context of the current EU-Russia relations.

- by Evgeny Pashentsev and +3
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- European History, European Studies, Russian Studies, International Relations

Роль Федеративной Республики Германия в Европейском союзе является предметом дискуссий как в России, так и за рубежом. Сегодня значимая роль ФРГ в ЕС прослеживается при изучении истории становления ее внешней политики в рамках Европейского союза и ее влиянии на формирование наднациональной политики и институционального строительства.
О российско-германском сотрудничестве принято говорить как о «стратегическом партнерстве». Особую популярность этот тезис приобрел в 2000-е годы. В то время от российской стороны поступали предложения о совместной разработке сотрудничества «от Лиссабона до Владивостока». Сегодня в ключевых документах по внешней политике и политике безопасности ФРГ и ЕС наблюдается двойной подход к отношениям с Российской Федерацией. Стремление включить постсоветские страны в сферу интересов ЕС и НАТО привело к последующей политической конфронтации, наблюдается более жесткая риторика. В то же время Россия и Германия стремятся углублять экономическое и научно-техническое сотрудничество. В условиях современных кризисов и неопределенности глобальных процессов, формирования новой международной политики, столкновения интересов России и блока НАТО и ЕС и в целях улучшения двусторонних отношений все более важными становятся политологические исследования.
Актуальность темы исследования процесса принятия внешнеполитических решений в Германии определяется как историей взаимоотношений двух государств, так и политическим весом ФРГ в ЕС и ее экономической мощью, цикличностью характера международных процессов, трансформацией политической системы ФРГ в XX и XXI веках.
Опыт Германии в выработке своей европейской политики, особенности принятия решений во внешней политике в целом, влияние страны на наднациональную политику, внешнеполитическая стратегия ФРГ в условиях ЕС – все это делает необходимым проведение более глубокого исследования.
(Русскоязычная версия диссертации)

Comparing current Russian military power to that of a decade ago, Russia has clearly made substantial progress in transforming its military into an efficient fighting force. Observing this achievement, it is relevant to ask: What military capability will Russia possess in another ten years?
This report provides a forecast of Russian military capability towards 2029. It is based on analyses of the Armed Forces and their fighting power, and of political and economic factors that affect the development of military capability. The study’s primary focus is on regular warfare capabilities.
The report finds that Russia’s authoritarian domestic policy and anti-Western foreign policy will continue. Recognition as a great power and establishing a sphere of interest in its neighbourhood will remain main objectives. The impressive pace of improvement of the Armed Forces in the past decade is probably not sustainable. Instead, the next ten years will consolidate previous achievements, notably the ability to launch a regional war. Strategic deterrence, primarily with nuclear forces, will remain the foremost priority. Towards 2029, Russia may only significantly increase its military capability further by sustained political support for determined policy implementation.

- by Andreas Umland and +13
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- Eastern European Studies, German Studies, Russian Studies, Eastern Europe

Formal university and college Intelligence Studies degree programs have experienced a pronounced growth in recent years, exhibiting a richness in diversity and engagement in both institutional type and instructional delivery. At face value American academia seems about to embark on a new era of cooperation and understanding with the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC). But in seeking to determine whether progress in this development is as significant as is hoped in Washington, DC, this study reveals a persisting historical concern and academic bias that constrains the latent collaboration.

- by Dr. Matthew Crosston
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- Business, Business Administration, Business Ethics, History
- by Dr. Matthew Crosston
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- History, Military History, Bioinformatics, Sociology