Financial Risk Management Research Papers (original) (raw)

2025, Agriculture & Food Security

Background Theoretically, social climate and social networking which may affect attitudes, motivations, and readiness towards quality improvement and rewards, influence the adoption decision process by possibly modifying the risk behaviour/attitudes of individuals. Thus for effective promotion of agricultural technologies among farmers in Africa, it is necessary to understand the social context within which risk attitudes are formed and social participation decisions are made. The study, therefore, employed the recursive bivariate endogenous switching probit model to examine how risk attitudes of farmers are shaped through social interactions in the information and communication networks of farmers to influence their technology adoption decisions. Here, the empirical application was done with the contextual case of agriculture intensification technologies in the Root and Tuber Improvement and Marketing Programme (RTIMP) introduced to smallholder cassava farmers in Ghana. This paper ...

2025, SSRN Electronic Journal

2025

Using Zambia as a case study, this study conducted a brief literature review on the synthesis of facilitators of digital finance in emerging economies. The study stated what several academics have argued regarding the weather that drive the expansion of digital finance in emerging nations, like political, legal, economic, and technical settings. An exhaustive electronic mining of peer-reviewed papers and books on Springer, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect to locate appropriate material on the subject matter is required for productive study. To narrow down on acceptable articles from which to extract information for the research, a good evaluation fit was undertaken. The conclusions of the review revealed that changes within the political, economic, legal, and technical settings have an honest and negative influence on digital finance in emerging nations. for instance, this research found that, in terms of legislative reforms, there has been a positive adoption of digital money foll...

2025, TENCON 2019 - 2019 IEEE Region 10 Conference (TENCON)

As this meticulous journey comes to end, we have come across many well-wishers whose invaluable contribution and assistance made this project successful. Our beloved Professor, Mr. Hossain Arif is one such person. His continuous support and guidance has kept us motivated and enabled us to present our best in all cases. We would also like to thank Mr. Samiul Islam and Dr. Iftekharul Mobin for their continuous encouragement and expertise in this field. Last but certainly not the least; we would like to show our appreciation towards our families without whose unconditional support none of this would have been possible.

2025, Izvestiya Journal of the University of Economics - Varna

This study carried out an empirical test of stochastic dominance application on portfolio selection in the Nigerian stock market. December daily stock price of ten (10) listed insurance firms in the period 2014 to 2020 were selected and tested for stochastic dominance occurrence. The findings indicate that the selection of firm stock followed the Markowitz mean-variance and risk preference behavior of investors in the stock market. It also shows that two (2) firm stocks were first order stochastically dominant (FSD), four (4) stocks of firms were second order stochastically dominant while nine (9) stocks were third order stochastically dominant (TSD) in the period after the stock market meltdown in Nigeria. The study recommends that future researchers should empirically investigate portfolio dominance on a sector by sector basis. This will guide potential investors at selecting securities on the basis of mean-variance and utility function.

2025, Technium Social Sciences Journal

The research aims to identify the role of the external auditor in auditing cybersecurity risks and the size of the cybersecurity risks to which Iraqi companies are exposed and to determine the procedures of the external auditor and Iraqi audit offices in auditing cybersecurity risks and their adequacy, in addition to knowing the impact of cybersecurity risks on the continuity of Iraqi companies. Eighty-five questionnaires were distributed to a sample of external auditors in auditing offices who have experience auditing electronic accounting systems in Iraq, and 77 questionnaires were retrieved from them that are valid for analysis using the SPSS statistical program. There is a relative development in the use of electronic accounting and administrative systems by Iraqi joint stock companies. There is a clear impact on the continuity of companies due to cybersecurity risks that cannot be avoided, as well as the lack of sufficient experience among many work teams in audit offices to au...

2025, Technium Social Sciences Journal

This research aims to demonstrate the role of internal audits in evaluating sustainable performance and its impact on financial report quality using the balanced scorecard. It also drew the internal auditors' attention in industrial companies to the importance of evaluating sustainable performance and its influence on financial report quality. The researchers used the parallel scorecard to assess the General Company for Automotive and Equipment Manufacturing performance for the years 2017-2020. The General Company for the Production of Automobiles and Equipment and its factories, but not at the required level, and the internal audit of the General Company for the Production of Automobiles and Equipment focuses its work on the economic aspect in a big way and on the traditional financial reports whose data is quantitative and includes cash only. There is also a weakness in the internal audit concerning auditing business and reports prepared by the authorities responsible for the ...

2025, Journal of International Studies

The relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, and economic growth are complex and analyzed by many researchers. Still, there are some gaps in our knowledge as literature documents positive, negative, and ambiguous impact of FDI and trade openness on economic growth. This paper addresses one of these gaps and focuses on the similarities and differences among countries from Central and Eastern Europe and West Africa. The econometric analysis covers the 1995-2022 period and employs panel data methods to reveal the long-term positive impact of FDI and trade openness on economic growth in West African countries and long-term positive impact of FDI on economic growth in Central and Eastern European countries. We also demonstrate that apart from cross-border linkages captured by FDI and trade flows, economic growth in Central and Eastern European countries positively correlates with global economic development, however, in case of West Africa this effect is statistically insignificant.

2025, Research Square (Research Square)

Using the S&P green bond index (RSPGB), this study attempts to unravel the connectedness of the green bond with energy, crypto, and carbon markets. We use MAC global solar energy index (RMGS) and ISE global wind energy index (RIGW) as proxies of the energy market. In addition, we consider Bitcoin and the European energy exchange carbon index (REEX) for the cryptocurrency, and carbon market, respectively. Using the daily data from October 1, 2015, to December 13, 2021, of these constituent markets, we employ Diebold Yilmaz (2012), Barunik and Krehlik (2017), and wavelet coherence. The result reveals that the energy market (RMGS) has the highest connectedness derived from other asset classes, and bitcoin (RBTC) has the least connectedness. In addition, we note that risk transmission is heterogeneous in different scales as the short period has less connectedness than the medium and long run. Hence, the overall diversi cation opportunity among green bonds, energy stock, Bitcoin, and the carbon market is more in the short-run than in the medium and long-run. Surprisingly, there is no lead-lag relationship among these markets. This study provides insights to investors, policymakers, and portfolio managers.

2025, Deep Science Publishing

12.1. Introduction to RegTech Regulatory Technology, or RegTech, is a rapidly evolving field that utilizes technology to create more agile, efficient, and effective compliance processes in an environment where firms face ever-increasing regulatory scrutiny and the burden of compliance costs. RegTech includes a broader subset of technological innovations that directly address regulatory challenges, which utilize regulatory requirements as inputs to an innovative solution, or which produce compliance as a by-product of the services they offer. Moreover, like FinTech, the term RegTech is used by a wide set of institutions and broadly refers to the use of technology in the compliance function of financial and capital markets. The issue of compliance in financial services is in urgent need of a technological solution. De-risking is a result of the obligation of financial institutions to carry out anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing checks on their customers and to report any suspicious or even just complex transactions to the relevant authorities. To meet these requirements, banks are required to identify and verify the identity of their customers, the beneficial ownership of their customers, and anyone acting on behalf of their customers. Risk-based principles permit banks to avoid excessively intrusive checks on low-risk customers, but sometimes the risks of being wrong mean the banks are excessively cautious. The argument is further supported by the current CEO of a cryptocurrency exchange, in the world of cryptocurrency regulation, no country is standing still. That makes things particularly complex for anyone who is trying to operate on a global scale. Ensuring compliance with every region's kaleidoscope of laws and guidelines is not just complex; it is time-consuming and it is expensive (

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

This paper investigates the role of investor attention in forecasting realized volatility for fourteen international stock markets, by means of Google Trends data, over the sample period January 2004 through November 2021. We devise an augmented Empirical Similarity model that combines three volatility components, defined over different time horizons, using the similarity measure between lagged Google search queries and volatility. Results show that investor attention positively affects future volatility in the short-run. The effect of investor attention is likely to reverse in the long-run, consistently with the price pressure hypothesis. The proposed model demonstrates important gains in terms of volatility forecast accuracy and outperforms highly competitive models.

2025, RICS COBRA Annual …

Construction cash flow forecasting has attracted a lot of research interests over the last two decades. Researchers have employed forecasting methodologies, which include mathematical formula-based, statistical, computer simulation and artificial intelligence applications. In spite of the quantity of research efforts, accuracy of the forecast is still a major problem, largely due to risks and uncertainties inherent in construction. This paper presents part of three-year year programme of research aimed at evaluating the impacts of risk on construction cost flow forecast. The study which is at the end of the second year identified and assessed the risk factors responsible for the variation between the forecast and actual cost flow. The study was conducted through a questionnaire survey administered on contracting organisations. On a project by project basis, contractors' opinions were sought on the extent of occurrence of 26 risk variables considered in the study. An initial analysis was carried out using mean response analysis. This shows that the main factors responsible for variation between the forecast and actual cost flow are client's changes to initial design, inclement weather, variation to works (AI), labour shortage, production target slippage, delay in agreeing variation/day works, delay in settling claims, problems with foundations and underestimating project complexity. Further analysis based on factor analysis showed that the identified risk variables could be grouped into six generic groups; the most important factor group being delayed payment and variation to works. Other generic factors are economic changes, project disruption, project complexity, shortage of construction resources and natural inhibitions. These groupings are of significant value in providing a parsimonious reduction of the risk variables and they subsequently provide direction for developing a cost flow risk assessment model.

2025

This study investigates the pairwise shock transmission and volatility spillover of Ethereum with Ripple, Stellar and Monero. The BEKK model has been deployed between 8 August 2015 and 30 September 2019. The results indicate a significant shock transmission from Ethereum to Ripple and Monero, but not on Stellar. On the other hand, shock transmission is only found from Ripple to Ethereum. Bi-directional volatility spillover was identified between Ethereum and both Ripple and Stellar. Uni-directional volatility spillover was present from Ethereum to Monero but not vice versa

2025, Journal of Science and Technology Issue on Information and Communications Technology

This paper studies the connection between CEO experience and Vietnamese listed firms’ capital adjustment behavior. In the context of Vietnam, we find that experienced CEOs slow down the speed of obtaining the desired ratio of debt, after analyzing a sample of 694 public companies from 2010 to 2019. This pattern can be seen for both under- and over-the-target enterprises when leverage is measured by book and market value. Our findings are in line with other research that shows a negative correlation between CEOs' years of experience and debt levels. We expect that for experienced CEOs, the adjustment benefits are not large enough to substitute for adjustment costs, so they choose not to offset the deviation to the target leverage quicker.

2025, Journal of Science and Technology Issue on Information and Communications Technology

This paper investigates the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm performance, cash flows, cash holdings and leverage. Using quarterly data of 415 firms listed in the Vietnamese stock market, this study employs the t-test method to compare firms' outcomes between the two main periods, including the happening of COVID-19 period (from Q1-2020 to Q1-2021) and the normal period (from Q1-2010 to Q4-2019). The results show that the pandemic significantly impairs firm performance and its cash flows. In addition, firms are found to hold more cash and reduce their leverage ratios to combat the disease outbreak. This study also provides supportive evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic may not necessarily affect firms across industries equally.

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

This paper examines the literature on paradoxes and tensions in interorganizational relationships (IORs) and identifies how such tensions are managed in interorganizational settings. In a systematic literature review, we analyzed 95 papers published between 1997 and 2021 on the subject of paradoxes in IORs. The sample showed a variety of paradoxes occurring in different interorganizational contexts, such as knowledge sharing and protection, short- and long-term orientation, and exploration and exploitation. The diversity of such paradoxes has led to crescent interest in cooperation. Our main results show that contextual factors and management practices influence the balance between paradoxes. Although the particular context of each IOR may be unique in terms of balancing paradoxical elements, we identified a set of “pre-tension practices” and “post-tension practices” which may help avoid the emergence of tensions or reduce their adverse effects. The findings of our systematic litera...

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

Startups contribute significantly to the economic development of a country. Despite their importance and promising future, they are extremely fragile, mainly for their lack of tangible and intangible resources. Since this can be obtained through an incubation process, business incubators (BIs) could have a significant impact on the survival rate of startups. Once defined their core structure and value proposition, there are other players, such as venture capitalists who could guarantee the funds necessary to make the startup’s business grow over time. Drawing on the resource-based view theory, this research explores whether some BIs could represent a certification of startup quality for venture capitalists (VCs). Specifically, we investigate whether some specific attributes of BIs increase the probability that a VC funds startups after being incubated; to this purpose, we carry out an experiment on a European sample of VCs. Results demonstrate that some characteristics of the BI can...

2025, The Historic Environment: Policy & Practice

This article examines the response of the English heritage sector, in particular Historic England, to the impact caused by the initial lockdown and restrictions introduced to protect lives during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. This response, headed by the Heritage Sector Response Group, relied on effective cross-sector working in order to both make the case for targeted support for the heritage sector to the UK Government and to provide advice and support for organisations during the lockdown and the limited reopening of the economy which followed. This included gathering intelligence in order to understand the impact of restrictions on the sector, which was used to swiftly develop emergency grant schemes funded by the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, the National Lottery Heritage Fund and Historic England. The paper also considers the Historic England Heritage Online Debate around the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on the sector, which gathered case studies from across the sector to capture and share qualitative information. The paper then looks at other long term challenges facing the sector, such as climate change, and considers how a collaborative approach and lessons learned from the sector's response to the COVID-19 restrictions may provide models for building resilience for the future and developing solutions to other issues.

2025, Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology

This paper outlines the critical role of banks in the Greek economy, emphasizing their importance for maintaining stability and fostering financial growth. It traces the historical development of the Greek banking system, examines its current structure, and explores future challenges and opportunities. The paper adopts a historical-analytical approach, beginning with a comprehensive review of the Greek banking system’s evolution. It then delves into four key pillars, regulation, function, accessibility, and societal impact, to provide an in-depth analysis of the banking sector. This method allows for a well-rounded understanding of both the historical context and the current dynamics influencing the Greek financial landscape. The Greek banking system has been a pivotal player in the country’s economic development, especially during periods of recovery and growth. Post-2008, the global financial crisis exposed significant weaknesses in the banking sector, including a prevailing defic...

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

Considering market-based inflation expectations, we show that investors’ forecasts are non-linear. We capture this non-linear behavior with a Markov-switching model that allows us to identify a regime of high uncertainty, and a regime of low uncertainty and low concern about inflation. Using a complete cross-asset panel of equity sectors, bonds, and commodities, we perform regressions in both regimes including several control variables, and show that the exposure of European assets returns to implied inflation is regime-dependent. We show that inflation-indexed government bonds and oil are the best way to get exposure to slow upward revisions of future inflation that correspond to periods of rallying inflation. We thus identify alternatives to hedge oneself against revisions in inflation forecasts when inflation is considered as a variable of interest by market participants, which, in fact, corresponds to periods of breaks in the trend of realized inflation. In particular, we provid...

2025, German Economic Review

Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of WHU. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. WHU Working Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

2025, Review of Economics and Finance

Covid-19 has significantly disrupted and devastated the world&#39;s economy. Data from Malaysia shows that more than 30,000 companies have closed their operations since the movement control order (MCO) implementation due to Covid-19 that began in March 2020. However, the effects on small businesses are especially severe, mainly due to the higher vulnerability levels and lower resilience related to their size. This study provides an empirical analysis of the key drivers leading to the business resilience of small businesses in Malaysia that have survived the Covid-19 pandemic. Data from 215 small businesses were collected physically and online across Malaysia from May 2021 to December 2021. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) using Smart PLS 3.2.4 was used to analyse the data, whereby nine hypotheses were tested in the current study. The results showed that technology acceptance, government support, and financial literacy significantly influence business resilience among small businesses in Malaysia. The results also indicated that financial literacy moderates the relationship between compliance cost and government support with business resilience. Thus, the findings revealed three important determinants of small businesses&#39; resilience framework, namely technology acceptance, government support, and financial literacy. The study recommends a dynamic, resilient framework to adopt in the &quot;new normal&quot; situation for the successful navigation of small businesses in the future. Moreover, the study provides insight into the key drivers for business resilience factors that small businesses must be concerned with, as the framework can be used to deal with not only the global pandemic but also uncertain conditions.

2025, Journal of Financial Risk Management

Somali microfinance finance institute (SMFI) was established to provide inclusive financial services to rural and urban poor households with the ultimate goal of poverty alleviation in the Somali regional state. Even though SMFI is working better to upgrade itself to a licensed bank-Shabelle Bank and is showing livelihood improvement for poor households in the Somali region so far, loan repayment problems are currently the major challenge facing the institute, which can discourage it from promoting and extending credit to poor people in the future. Therefore, this study intended to assess the determinants of the loan repayment capacity of borrowers in the Kebridahar District of Korahey Zone. Out of the total 4330 borrowers received from the SMFI Kebridahar branch, 188 representatives were selected by dividing the borrowers into two strata, in terms of loan payment status defaulters and non-defaulters. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. The primary data was collected from a sample of 188 borrowers using a two-stage sampling method. Descriptive statistics and an econometric model were used to analyze the data. The result of descriptive statistics revealed that Education level, household head experience in credit, family size, marital status, loan diversion, occupation type, and getting trained were shown significant differences between defaulters and non-defaulters. According to the logistic regression model result out of nine variables included in the model, Age, education level, and access to training of household head positively and significantly affected the loan repayment capacity of the borrowers while marital status (get-married) and loan size were found to be negative and significantly affecting the repayment capacity of the borrowers. Therefore, this study recommends that the microfinance and other regional concerning offices should give attention to these significantly affecting variables for further

2025, Annals of Operations Research

This research revisits the economic capital management regarding banking books of financial institutions exposed to the emerging market sovereign debt. We develop a derivative-based integrated approach to quantify economic capital requirements for considered jointly interest rate and credit risk. Our framework represents a major contribution to the empirical aspects of capital management. The proposed innovative modeling allows applying standard historic value-at-risk techniques developed for stand-alone risk factors to evaluate aggregate impacts of several risks. We use the time-series of credit default swap spreads and interest rate swap rates as proxy measures for credit risk and interest rate risk, respectively. An elasticity of interest rate risk and credit risk, considered a function of the business cycle phases, maturity of instruments, creditworthiness, and other macroeconomic parameters, is gauged by means of numerical modeling. Our contribution to the new economic thinking regarding the interest rate risk and credit rate risk management consists in their integrated treatment as the dynamics of interest rate and credit spreads is found to demonstrate the features of automatic stabilizers of each other. This research sheds light on how financial institutions may address hedge strategies against downside risks. It is of special importance for emerging markets heavily dependent on foreign capital as it potentially allows emerging market banks to improve risk management practices in terms of capital adequacy and Basel III rules. From the regulatory perspective, by taking into account inter-risk diversification effects it allows enhancing financial stability through jointly optimizing Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 economic capital.

2025, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

This study examines whether firm life cycle stages affects idiosyncratic risk, market risk and total risk using data of Chinese listed non-financial firms from 2007 to 2016, and further explores the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and cash flow volatility by using an interaction term. To check propensity, we further divided our main sample into SOEs (State-owned Enterprises) and non-SOEs. Findings imply that all three risks are significantly higher during introduction, growth and decline stages because their competitive advantages, resource base, and capabilities are limited. Results showing risks are lower during mature stage. Further, we examine cash flow volatility and found that, respective of firm life cycle stages, it varies in affecting these types of risks. By conducting sensitivity analysis, our results are robust to alternative specifications. This study may helpful for managers and investors while managing different investment portfolios.

2025, Indian Journal of Information Sources and Services

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and
Machine Learning (ML) has transformed numerous fields,
including agriculture, industry, economy, and medicine, with
significant advancements in automation and decision-making
processes. Today, AI and ML have also made notable strides in
financial markets, particularly in stock and foreign exchange
(Forex) forecasting, where complex algorithms are used to
predict market movements and assist in decision-making. This
paper examines such applications, particularly on using AI and
ML techniques in the stock trading and market prediction.
Specifically for this paper, the general approach to the
application of AI and more concretely the ML in the trading of
stocks is examined in terms of learning processes and the
algorithms which are used to make predictions. The paper
examines data extraction techniques, which are crucial for
identifying such patterns as historical stock prices and volumes
of trading.

2025, European Journal of Economic and Financial Research

The performance of listed insurance companies in Kenya has over time been unstable, despite its contribution to Kenya’s GDP. Whereas the firms have diversified investment asset portfolios, the financial performance of these companies has generally remained low; as evidenced by inconsistent revenues. The purpose of this paper is to establish the relationship between portfolio management and the financial performance of the listed insurance firms in Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), Kenya. The study has been guided by Modern Portfolio Theory, allowing for the integration of mixed securities. correlational research design has been employed on a target population of six (6) listed insurance companies at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. census technique of data collection to obtain secondary data through the document review method was used. Analyzing data through descriptive and inferential statistics, the following results were obtained; showing a positive significant effect of both po...

2025

The authors used a new dataset collected by the Federal Reserve System to evaluate the systemic importance of the largest U.S. bank holding companies by comparing their scores on size, interconnectedness, complexity, global activity, and dominance in certain customer services (known as "substitutability"). They also applied an OFR financial connectivity index to the data to measure interconnectedness. Overall, the analysis reinforces the need for measuring, monitoring, and evaluating multiple aspects of systemic importance.

2025, Journal of Finance and Accounting

This paper examines effects of capital structure on business profitability in seven processing enterprises listed on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE), Tanzania. Capital structure in this study was measured by long-term debt to equity ratio (LTDR) and business profitability was measured by Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE) and Earnings per Share (EPS). The study applied secondary data obtained from the published reports in the DSE website for a duration of ten years from 2009 to 2018. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis and Karl Pearson Coefficient of Correlation were employed to determine the relationship between capital structure and business profitability. Results revealed that the capital structure indicator had a weak and statistically insignificant effect on business profitability measures. The relationship between LTDR and all measures of profitability used in this study were found to be weak and insignificant. Therefore, the study concluded that capital structure is not a major determinant of firm's profitability. These findings generally concur with the predictions of the Pecking Order Theory of capital structure decisions of firms. It is therefore recommended that financial managers should follow a moderate and cautious approach to debt issues despite the benefit of tax shield in order to minimize the risk of operating under financial distress.

2025, International series in management science/operations research

The book series International Series in Operations Research and Management Science encompasses the various areas of operations research and management science. Both theoretical and applied books are included. It describes current advances anywhere in the world that are at the cutting edge of the field. The series is aimed especially at researchers, doctoral students, and sophisticated practitioners. The series features three types of books: • Advanced expository books that extend and unify our understanding of particular areas. • Research monographs that make substantial contributions to knowledge. • Handbooks that define the new state of the art in particular areas. They will be entitled Recent Advances in (name of the area). Each handbook will be edited by a leading authority in the area who will organize a team of experts on various aspects of the topic to write individual chapters. A handbook may emphasize expository surveys or completely new advances (either research or applications) or a combination of both.

2025, Journal of Financial Risk Management

Risk taking is described as an integral part of financial services. For micro-financing in particular, engaging in proactive risk taking is essential to their viability and long term sustainability. Maintaining a good strategy that ensures an optimal mix in risk-return trade-off is much more important for the microfinance banks (MFBs) that operate on a for-profit basis. Having faulted the value-at-risk technique which is common in the asset and liability literature, we introduce the multi-stage stochastic programming using econometric time series model. Specifically, for the scenario generation, we specify a VaR model with the inclusion of dichotomy regime which captures the multi-stage characteristics of assets. We use the liability derived investment (LDI) model to generate the liability series over the period of study. The optimization result showed that MFBs in Nigeria are by far more risk averse than they are profit seeking. This comes with the attendant effect of not being able to achieve the outreach and sustainability objectives to the fullest. MFBs in Nigeria need to look into their investment strategy with a view to structuring the mix and value of the balance sheet components at different periods to meet their stated objectives.

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

With the increasing availability of large volumes of space–time house data, delineating space–time housing submarkets is of interest to real estate agents, homebuyers, urban policymakers, and spatial researchers, among others. Appropriately delineated housing submarkets can help nurture submarket monitoring and housing policy developments. Although submarkets are often expected to represent areas with similar houses, neighborhoods, and amenities characteristics, delineating spatially contiguous areas with virtually no fragmented small areas remains challenging. Furthermore, housing submarkets can potentially change over time along with concomitant urban transformations, such as urban sprawl, gentrification, and infrastructure improvements, even in large metropolitan areas, which can complicate delineating submarkets with data for lengthy time periods. This study proposes a new method for integrating a random effects model with spatially constrained data-driven approaches in order to...

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

By analyzing the case of Athens during the Classical period (508-323 BCE) the main thesis of this paper is that under direct democracy procedures and the related institutional setup, a monetary system without a Central Bank may function relatively well. We focus on the following issues: (i) Τhe procedures of currency issuing in the Athenian city-state, (ii) why the Athenian drachma become the leading international currency in the Mediterranean world (iii) how and towards which targets monetary policy without a Central Bank was possible (iv) defining the targets of monetary policy and the mechanisms for its implementation (v) the role of money in the economy (vi) the issue of deficit spending (vii) the reasons of the replacement of the Athenian drachma as a leading currency by others from the Hellenistic period onwards (viii) the correlation of our findings regarding the decentralized character of monetary policy in Classical Athens to today’s realities, such as the issue of cryptocu...

2025

Retail mortgage rate data for the last 13 years in New Zealand indicates that implied forward mortgage rates have only limited power to predict later spot mortgage rates. The low correlation of the forward rates and the future spot rates may in part arise from thin futures and forward markets in interest rates in New Zealand for anything longer than

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

Many actuarial science researchers on stochastic modeling and forecasting of systematic mortality risk use Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) Model (2006) due to its ability to consider the cohort effects. A three-factor stochastic mortality model has three parameters that describe the mortality trends over time when dealing with future behaviors. This study aims to predict the trends of the model, kt(2) by applying the Recurrent Neural Networks within a Short-Term Long Memory (an artificial LSTM architecture) compared to traditional statistical ARIMA (p,d,q) models. The novel deep learning (machine learning) technique helps integrate the CBD model to enhance its accuracy and predictive capacity for future systematic mortality risk in countries with limited data availability, such as Kenya. The results show that Long Short-Term Memory network architecture had higher levels of precision when predicting the future systematic mortality risks than traditional methods. Ultimately, the results can b...

2025, 19th Workshop on (Constraint) Logic Programming

Abstract. Hypothetical reasoning makes it possible to reason with incomplete information in a wide range of knowledge-based applications. It is usually necessary to constrain the generation of hypotheses, so to avoid inconsistent sets or to infer new hypotheses from already made ones. These requirements are met by several abductive frameworks. In order to tackle many practical cases, however, it would also be desirable to support the dynamical acquisition of new facts, which can confirm the hypotheses, or possibly disconfirm them, ...

2025, Dignidad, comunicación y justicia en la filosofía y cultura del Renacimiento y el Siglo de Oro

Girolamo Cardano (1501-1576) será abordado en este trabajo como uno de los autores que contribuyen al secularismo moderno, algo que ha podido quedar poco estudiado, ya que es conocido principalmente como uno de los científicos de la modernidad temprana y, debido a sus escritos autobiográficos, un heredero de la cosmovisión humanista antropocéntrica. Sin embargo, en sus escritos relacionados con la teología y la religión pretendía ser un piadoso adorador de Dios, Creador. Utiliza con frecuencia un lenguaje de ingenua admiración ante lo divino en la crea- ción. Pero en su redacción y también en el estilo de su escritura resulta bastante evidente que su objetivo es emancipar la vida humana en el mundo y, en concreto, el estudio de la naturaleza respecto de una creencia ciega en Dios. La creencia tradicional en el Creador haría superfluo el estudio de la naturaleza, el cual propor- ciona el ascenso a Dios y la salvación del alma, siempre que tanto la ascensión a Dios como la salvación del alma tengan prioridad.

2025

In dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, the household's labor margin as well as consumption margin affects Arrow-Pratt risk aversion. This paper derives simple, closed-form expressions for risk aversion that take into account the household's labor margin. Ignoring the labor margin can lead to wildly inaccurate measures of the household's true attitudes toward risk. We show that risk premia on assets computed using the stochastic discount factor are proportional to Arrow-Pratt risk aversion, so that measuring risk aversion correctly is crucial for understanding asset prices. Closed-form expressions for risk aversion in DSGE models with generalized recursive preferences and internal and external habits are also derived.

2025

Internet traffic forecasting models with learning ability, such as the artificial neural network (ANN), have been growing in popularity in recent time due to their impressive performance in modelling the high degree of variability and nonlinearity of internet traffic. This study examined the impacts of some design issues on performance of the multi-layer artificial neural network for internet traffic forecasting. The traffic forecasting was modelled as a standard time series problem and the multilayer artificial neural network designed to performs the time series function mapping. The input lags were varied from 1 to 24. The training epoch values of 200, 500, and 1000 on one and two hidden layered networks were used. The learning algorithm was backpropagation with 0.1 learning rate and 0.9 momentum on logistic sigmoid activation function. The model was implemented in Visual Basic and validated with four categories of classified time series internet traffic of a branch residential ne...

2025, Managing Sport and Leisure

This article provides an overview of the expanding range of cybercrime activities targeting various stakeholders in sport. The first part examines the growth of cybercrime and the main strategies adopted to target teams, sports organisations, and individuals. It then addresses the cyber-threats facing sports events and stadia before addressing the growing threat of identity theft from online gambling sites, the growth in illegal betting resulting from the opportunities created by the unregulated aspect of gambling companies on the internet, and the impact cryptocurrency is having on money laundering. The final part analyses the growth of online hate speech and the extent to which social media platforms and national governments are protecting the rights of users and athletes from harm.

2025, Centre for Finance, Technology and Entrepreneurship (CFTE)

As Artificial Intelligence reshapes industries and job markets, a global talent divide is rapidly emerging. This whitepaper - The AI-fication of Talents - presents a strategic framework to close that divide by building AI-readiness at scale. Based on CFTE’s work with central banks, governments, and financial institutions, it introduces three frameworks: (1) The Performance Hexagon - a model for categorising professionals by impact in an AI-driven world; (2) The ACE Framework (AI Capability Engine) - a national blueprint for workforce transformation; and (3) The CDE Innovation Prism - a lens to identify how AI replaces, enhances, or enables innovation. With insights from transformation programmes across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, the whitepaper offers practical guidance for individuals, organisations, and nations seeking to thrive in the AI era. Acknowledgements: With thanks to Tram Anh Nguyen for strategic leadership and to Alexandra Costas for editorial support. The paper also reflects insights from CFTE’s collaborations with governments, central banks, and institutions globally.

2025, Sri Lanka Journal of Management Studies

Internationally, Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) has been recognized as an important strategic sector in both developed and developing countries. In Sri Lanka, SME sector causes vigorous impact in the economy for promoting growth and social development. Even though, the potential contribution is substantial SMEs are struggle with risk management and survival problem in Sri Lankan economy. Further, there are recognized empirical, methodological and practical research gaps in the field of risk management of SMEs. Therefore, the aims of the study was to develop a model to investigate how risk management process and owner's characteristics significantly impact on business performance of SMEs. Thus, a systematic literature review was carried out by applying measures such as key words, language, type of the article, time frame and specially Emerald Insight, Google Scholar, and Science Direct libraries were considered. The systematic literature review facilitated to recognize justifiable research gaps and develop a model to show the behavior of risk management process and owner's characteristics on business performance of SMEs. The developed model can be used by researchers for conducting a quantitative analysis and thus it will fill existing theoretical research gaps. Further, results of such a quantitative analysis will help to develop a discussion comparing and contrasting with results of other studies. Thus, this study helps to fill existing empirical research gaps also.

2025, Journal of Reviews on Global Economics

Extant literature has shown that corporate governance influences dividends policy. However, the effect of diversity on the likelihood to distribute cash dividends is scarce in the literature. Therefore, this study is aimed at exploring the influence of gender diversity and financial expertise on the likelihood of dividends payout. Pooled logistic regression was used on a sample of data from non-financial listed firms in Nigeria spanning from 2009 to 2015. The study documents gender diversity and financial experts have significant effect on a firm's likelihood to distribute cash dividends. The results remain unchanged after adjusting the standard errors for clustering at a firm. The overall finding suggests that diversity in terms of gender and expertise play a critical role all things being equal in determining the decision to pay cash dividends shareholders of listed firms in Nigeria.

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

This study is meant to be an evaluation sustained by theoretical and empirical considerations of the exchange rate impact on international commercial trade competitiveness. In this respect, the study aims to find how the exchange rate influences Romanian competitiveness through assessing the effects generated on exports and imports. The main purpose of the study is to assess the complex action of the exchange rate on international commercial trade competitiveness in contemporaneity and the connections between these variables. The empirical part contains a regression analysis where exports and imports are dependent variables influenced by a series of determinants.

2025, International Journal of Science and Research Archive

In today's highly interconnected and volatile global financial ecosystem, systemic risk and liquidity shocks pose persistent threats to market stability, economic growth, and investor confidence. The ripple effects of localized disruptions-whether stemming from geopolitical tensions, central bank policy shifts, or institutional defaults-can rapidly escalate across borders due to the integration of financial institutions and the speed of capital flows. Against this backdrop, advanced financial derivatives have emerged as pivotal tools not only for hedging individual exposures but also for managing systemic risk and mitigating liquidity imbalances on a macroprudential scale. This paper explores the strategic application of complex derivatives-such as total return swaps, credit default swaps (CDSs), volatility futures, and cross-currency basis swaps-in addressing market-wide vulnerabilities. It provides a detailed examination of how these instruments are structured to transfer risk, absorb liquidity stress, and enhance pricing transparency across asset classes and jurisdictions. Through illustrative case studies, including the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 market dislocations, the study demonstrates how derivatives functioned both as shock absorbers and amplifiers depending on regulatory oversight and market discipline. In narrowing its focus, the paper evaluates regulatory frameworks, such as Basel III and Dodd-Frank, and their role in promoting central clearing and margin requirements to reduce counterparty risk. It also highlights recent innovations in algorithmically traded derivatives and AI-driven risk modeling to forecast and contain systemic contagion. Ultimately, the research underscores the dualedged nature of derivatives and emphasizes the importance of robust governance, transparency, and stress-testing in ensuring their effectiveness in safeguarding market integrity under stress scenarios.

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

The research interest in bank profitability and efficiency is linked to the economic situation and an important issue for policymakers is to ensure economic stability. Nevertheless, managerial decisions and the environment could play a critical role in ensuring proper and efficient allocation of the resources. The purpose of this study is to understand which are the main factors that can influence the performance and efficiency of 94 commercial listed banks from Eurozone countries through a dynamic evaluation, in the period between 2011 and 2016. To achieve this aim, the generalized method of moments estimator technique is used to analyze the influence of some bank-specific characteristics, controlled by management, on the profitability as a measure of bank performance. After that, through the value-based data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology, those factors are considered in determining the efficient banks. The results show that banking efficiency depends on set bank-specific ...

2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management

This paper aims to reveal the asymmetric co-integration relationship and asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and global financial assets, namely gold, crude oil and the US dollar, and make a comparison for their asymmetric relationship before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Empirical results show that there is no linear co-integration relationship between Bitcoin and global financial assets, but there are nonlinear co-integration relationships. There is an asymmetric co-integration relationship between the rise in Bitcoin prices and the decline in the US Dollar Index (USDX), and there is a nonlinear co-integration relationship between the decline of Bitcoin and the rise and decline in the prices of the three financial assets. To be specific, there is a Granger causality between Bitcoin and crude oil, but not between Bitcoin and gold/US dollar. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an Asymmetric Granger causality between the decline in gold prices and the rise in ...

2025, International Journal of Legal Studies

This article identifies the need to reduce the scale of misinformation and unethical business practices applied with the help of the use of artificial intelligence technology in online social media, among others, as an important element in managing the risk of developing applications and information systems equipped with artificial intelligence technology. The development of artificial intelligence based on big data and significant investments plays a key role in the economy and everyday life, automating processes, personalizing services and supporting sustainable....

2025, Journal of risk and financial management

New residential construction in many countries with rapid urban growth is often interrelated with smaller housing units being built. Sweden is not an exception. It is of interest to investigate the driving forces behind this tendency. Our presumption is that municipal land price policies and building permit regulations might play a certain role in this process. Contrary to previous studies that focus on the number of new dwelling units in housing construction, our purpose is to analyze the average size of new housing units and the factors that affect it on an aggregate level. We apply seemingly unrelated regressions for analysis of the average apartment size in new residential construction in the three largest metropolitan regions in Sweden as a function of the changes in population, apartment rent and prices, mortgage interest rates, land prices, and building permits per capita as a proxy for regulation. The unbalanced panel dataset includes the period between 1998 and 2017 and covers both the rental and the housing cooperative sectors. The analysis demonstrates that land prices and building policies along with market fundamentals are the underlying factors that affect the average size of an apartment in new residential construction in Sweden.