Fuzzy AHP Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

One of the essential issues existing in the industry section and long term investments is the procedure of evaluation and selection of industrial projects. Since selection of the optimum and appropriate project, is followed by economic efficiency and conversely the failure of a project causes time and cost wastage and will be followed by huge adverse consequences. Hence, decision making in this field is complicated and various tangible, intangible, qualitative and quantitative factors are involved in it and for this reason identification, study and analysis of them is necessary. In order to evaluate the projects in this article, initially technical and financial studies are considered and analyzed and its results are posed. Technical studies include estimation of investment constant costs, estimation of the plan income, costs before usage, capital turnover and production charges and financial studies include estimation of net current value indices, internal output rate, profitability index, capital return period, break – even analysis and other factors which contribute to economic evaluation of the project. The case study in this research is construction of a tile factory which five plans which in fact involve the research options are considered with indices and various technical and economic factors which through Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis Technique which is Fuzzy Multivariate Decision Making Methods, have been compared so that the best option is selected and the projects are ranked. The considered indices involve four financial indices including net current value, capital return period, investment output, sales output and the ratio of numerical break – even. The research result indicates that the projects ranking results is very close to the ranking on the basis of internal output rate. Introduction Execution of industrial projects beside its necessity to long time consumption and high costs, it is followed by many environmental, economic, social and political effects. Therefore, the failure of a project can be followed by financial and adverse implications in different dimensions which this affair reveals the importance and necessity of evaluation of industrial projects before execution. Success and failure of each project depends on conscious and logical decision making of the project custodian institutions and individuals. The starting point in any conscious effort for logical decision making is the process of problem finding, problem recognition through information collection and in selection of appropriate solution, awareness of techniques and methods is very important. Regarding the importance of project economical evaluation, project economic analysis is deemed as one of the crucial techniques of comparison and decision making and selection among a set of solutions based on the economic favorable conditions. Before execution, any project must be evaluated in financial and technical terms and its feasibility studied. The feasibility study process is conducted in the direction of ensuring and evaluation of the capability to meet the customer demand s and by the projects evaluation amongst several projects with different conditions, select the best option. Industrial Projects Evaluation Evaluation of the plans especially industrial projects is one of the most important and necessary acts which must be performed before execution of a plan. Execution of a plan is followed by costs and a set of acts and efforts which in case of its failure, it will have consequence. Success and failure of each project depends on conscious and logical decision making of the project custodian institutions and individuals. The starting point in any conscious effort for logical decision making is the process of problem finding, and selection of appropriate solution to the problem. In the process of problem finding, problem recognition through information collection and in selection of appropriate solution, awareness of techniques and methods is very important. Regarding the importance of project economical evaluation, project economic analysis is deemed as one of the crucial techniques of comparison and decision making and selection among a set of solutions based on the economic favorable conditions. Evaluation of an industrial project in the mold of feasibility studies, regards different suggestions and considers that whether execution of the project is possible and appropriate or not and its result is a decision yes, for Starting the implementation of project and no, for Non-implementation of project. In fact project evaluation, is a controlled process for simultaneous specification of problems and advantages of execution of a project or entry in to an investment situation and is performed along with complete description of conditions and estimation of its revenues and costs (Analysis of cost-profit) (Salehi Zadeh, 2008). Technical Consideration of the Plan In this section subjects such as establishment of the place of the plan, number of the required buildings and installations, selection of machineries and manufacturing equipment, the procedure of usage of fuel energy, electricity, steam, water, manpower supply, the required raw material extent and other capital costs of the plan will be considered technically (Behrens, 2008).