Money Supply Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

2025

This study aims to explore the impact of money supply on food prices in China. It investigates
the time series data from 1995 to 2018 by employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique.
Empirical results indicate that money supply has a significant and positive impact on food prices, as food
prices are unswervingly linked to food security, real disposable income of households’and food production.
The results of the study also revealed that the implication of monetary policy will be a significant instrument
to influence poverty, food security, and consumption patterns in China.

2025, TRIKONOMIKA

The short-term and long-term effects of ROI, EPS, PER Inflation, SBI, Exchange Rate, and GDP on the stock price are the focus of this study. The study's data came from company financial statements, including the Indonesian Stock Exchange Index LQ45. The stationarity test, the classical assumptions test, the cointegration test, and the error correction model test was utilized in this study's statistical analysis. KURS and SBI had a positive effect on stock prices in the short term, but there is no effect in the long term, and inflation and GDP do not affect the stock price both in the short term and in the long term, according to this study. As a result, investors and businesses can use this study's contribution as a point of reference when considering factors that have a short-term and long-term impact on stock prices.

2025, Economic Modelling

This paper investigates the real effects of a disinflationary policy in China, in which we conduct a disinflation experiment in a medium-scale New Keynesian model. We highlight two key features of China's economy: the relevance of money to monetary policy rules and household inequality. For the former, we consider two monetary policy regimes: an expanded Taylor rule with money and a money supply rule. For the latter, we take into account a share of the population that is limited in its ability to participate in assets markets. Our analysis suggests that a disinflation policy is more costly when the central bank controls the money supply than the case in which the nominal interest rate is the policy instrument. Our results are driven by the different impacts of disinflation on nominal and real interest rates under the two regimes. ☆ We acknowledge helpful comments and suggestions from the Editor Angus C. Chu and two anonymous Referees.

2025, Working Papers of National …

During the transition to market economy, most CEE countries saw a significant increase in productivity, especially in industry. But this evolution was accompanied by an even faster rise in prices in the non-tradable sector than in the... more

2025

KONSEP UANG DALAM ISLAM, SISTEM FISKAL DALAM ISLAM, DAN KONSEP DASAR PERBANKAN SYARIAH

2025

KONSEP UANG DALAM ISLAM, SISTEM FISKAL DALAM ISLAM, DAN KONSEP DASAR PERBANKAN SYARIAH

2025

This study applies the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method of the simultaneous equation model to investigate the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nigeria from 1994 to 2024. The results of the study showed that, as a result of insufficient FDI flow into the Nigerian economy, there was a negative association between economic growth as measured by GDP and FDI. Therefore, it is advised that Nigeria promote domestic investment to boost economic growth rather than depending solely on foreign direct investment (FDI) as a prime mover. Additionally, a code of conduct for FDI should be developed to stop multinational corporations' restrictive business practices and restrict their ability to repatriate profits from Nigeria.

2025, African Journal of Applied Research

The study employs descriptive analysis which involves examining descriptive statistics for each variable to understand the data's characteristics and assess the dispersion of the data points from their mean, time series analysis, cointegration testing, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modelling, and Vector error correction model (VECM), were also be used in the research. Findings: This research reveals that in Rwanda, the monetary base and overall monetary aggregates are primarily influenced by the extent of lending by commercial banks and demand deposits. It identifies a short-term causal relationship wherein the monetary base affects bank loans and the money supply. However, in the short term, the quantity of deposits, money supply, and the monetary base appear to have no direct impact on the volume of loans extended by commercial banks. The models validate that monetary indicators are chiefly influenced by the industrial production index, bank deposits, and the volume of loans issued by commercial banks Research Limitation/Implications: Establishing clear causality between money supply and economic variables such as output and inflation is challenging due to the potential for bidirectional causality. The money supply can influence these variables, and vice versa, making it difficult to identify the direction and magnitude of causal relationships. Practical Implications: The study's emphasis on the pivotal role played by commercial banks and their lending activities in the creation of money in Rwanda provides valuable insights into the country's banking sector dynamics. Social Implications: This knowledge can be used to design policies that promote financial inclusion, ensuring banks' activities contribute to wider economic goals. Originality/ Value: The use of a range of analytical techniques, including descriptive analysis, time series analysis, cointegration testing, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modelling, and Vector error correction model (VECM), adds rigour to the analysis and enhances the robustness of the findings.

2025, Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science

This paper examines Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) with a variation of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) which guesses that an affiliation exists among Real Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and Inflation Rate in Australia. The objective of this assessment is to research how much the picked macroeconomic elements influence the Real Exchange Rate of Australia by using the Johansen long-run testing way to deal with management co-integration. The paper shows enchanting estimations. ADF unit root test has been adopted to determine whether broad data is fixed or not. By testing the Johansen test for co-integration, the paper shows the association between Real Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and Inflation Rate in Australia. VECM is also adopted to test the short-run components of the Real Exchange Rate work. Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Cumulative Sum of Square (CUSUMQ) have been used to test the quality of the model. The results show short-run and long-run relationship among Real Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, and Interest Rate. The results showed that the Inflation Rate adversely influences the Real Exchange Rate, notwithstanding, Interest Rate has a Positive effect. Additionally, the Inflation Rate has a free causal relationship with Real Exchange Rate, be that as it may, Interest Rate has a unidirectional relationship. This paper prescribes the likelihood to improve their Real Exchange Rate by reducing the Inflation Rate and growing the Interest Rate.

2025, Računovodstvena znanja kao činilac ekonomskog i društvenog napretka

Cilj rada je analiza karakteristika i primene osnovnih linearnih i nelinearnih modela za procenu ekonomske izloženosti deviznom riziku. U radu su predstavljeni osnovni, tržišni i ortogonalni linearni modeli, kao i osnovni nelinearni model. Ovi modeli su primenjeni na uzorku 23 preduzeća, čijim se običnim akcijama kontinuirano trgovalo na organizovanom tržištu Beogradske berze najmanje šest godina, u periodu od januara 2007. do decembra 2024. Analiziran je uticaj kurseva evra i američkog dolara na tržišne prinose običnih akcija u uzorku. Najveći broj ekonomskih izloženosti je otkriven ortogonalnom regresijom, a svim modelima je više izloženosti otkriveno u odnosu na evro, nego u odnosu na američki dolar. Većina otkrivenih izloženosti je negativna što ukazuje na to da se prinosi kompanija smanjuju sa povećanjem deviznog kursa.

2025, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences

In this paper, we investigated the short-run and long-run effects of monetary policy on GDP have been investigated by co-integration analysis in Iran economy during the period 1972-2015. We used Johansen cointegration methods to demonstrate long-term relationship between the variables. The results showed that the Contractionary monetary shocks, has low effects on output whereas the effects of expansionary monetary shocks are neutral. The effects of expansionary monetary shocks after a first lag have significant effects on increasing output. Among the control variables, the investment ratio, inflation, government expenditures, oil revenues and coefficient of exchange rate have significant expected effects on production growth. In addition, there is a long-run relationship between money supply, inflation and output.

2025

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Professor R Ilorah and my Co-supervisor Mr S Zhanje. Their guidance, support and assistance are much appreciated. I also thank and acknowledge the love, support, guidance and assistance of my family and friends throughout my studies. Above all, I would like to thank the most High, our heavenly Father for the strength he has given me to conduct this research.

2025, Journal Article

his descriptive survey investigated climate change and productivity of crop farmers in Rivers State, Nigeria. The population of the study was a total of 1,139 registered crop farmers in Rivers State from the two agricultural designated crop zones. The sample consisted of 470 crop farmers (zone 1=239; zone 3=231) computed using the Taro Yamane (1967) sample formula. Multistage sampling was used for sample selection, firstly, purposive sampling technique was used to select the two designated agricultural crop zones and 10 farming LGAs; proportionate sample size computation was used to get the samples for the LGAs, while random sampling was used to select the total respondents. A 23

2025, International Journal of Economics …

This study empirically examines the effect of monetary, fiscal and trade policy on economic growth in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1981 to 2009. Money supply, government expenditure and trade openness are used as proxies of monetary, fiscal and trade policy respectively. Cointegration and error correction model indicate the existence of positive significant long run and short run relationship of monetary and fiscal policy with economic growth. Result also indicates that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in Pakistan. In contrast, trade policy has insignificant effect on economic growth both in the short run and in the long run. In light of the findings, it is suggested that the policy makers should focus more on monetary policy in order to ensure economic growth in the country. It is also recommended that further research should be conducted to find out such components of exports and imports which lead to the ineffectiveness of trade policy to enhance economic growth in Pakistan.

2025, Student Research

This research explores the long-term influence of six macroeconomic variables on the nominal exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US Dollar, using annual data spanning from 1992 to 2023. The variables examined include household and nonprofit consumption (KRTLN), real interest rate (SBR), gross domestic savings (TDB), foreign direct investment (FDI), gross fixed capital formation (PMTB), and broad money supply (UB). A multiple linear regression model is employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The findings indicate that all six indicators significantly impact the nominal exchange rate at the 1% level. KRTLN is positively associated with exchange rate depreciation, implying that increased consumption contributes to a weaker Rupiah. Conversely, SBR, TDB, FDI, PMTB, and UB show negative coefficients, suggesting their role in supporting currency appreciation. The model yields an adjusted R-squared of 0.965, indicating strong explanatory power. Diagnostic tests confirm that the model meets classical assumptions, including normality, homoscedasticity, absence of multicollinearity, and no autocorrelation. These outcomes underscore a stable and statistically significant connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics in Indonesia, aligning with established theoretical perspectives such as Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) within the framework of an open economy.

2025, European Journal of Economic and Financial Research

With the large observed discrepancies between money supply target and outcome overtime in Nigeria despite the assertion that money supply growth is independently and exogenously determined by the central bank, this study principally centred on the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on money supply in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1970-2011. The main objectives of the study were to ascertain how changes in selected macroeconomic variables affect money supply growth as well as testing the money supply endogeneity hypothesis in Nigeria. To achieve the above objectives, the study employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philip-perron (PP) unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and Error correction mechanism (ECM) in testing and in the estimation of the relevant equations. The results of the cointegration tests showed that there is a long-run relationship among the macroeconomic variables in the model. The results of the short-run and the long-run estimates revealed that income (GDP), credit to the private sector (CPS), net foreign asset (NFA), government expenditure (GEXP), consumer price index (CPI), interest rate (IR) and exchange rate (EXCH), all have both short-run and long-run significant effect on money supply. Furthermore, the results of the granger causality test showed that money supply is endogenously determined in Nigeria; thereby supporting the post-Keynesian postulation that money supply is endogenous. This indicates that macroeconomic variables had greater influence in determining the rate of money growth in Nigeria. From the findings, it was recommended that in order to achieve a sustainable level of money supply growth that will be consistent with the projected growth rate of the economy, more credit should be allocated to the core private sector of the economy. To achieve this, there is need for the monetary authorities to make credit, cheaper via reduction in lending rate. It is also recommended that monetary authorities should incorporate proactive and strategic analysis of the feedback effect of movement

2025, Research Journal of Finance and Accounting

This study examined the determinants of domestic investment in Nigeria for the period 1983 to 2015. The study specifically examined the effect of government expenditure, interest rate spread, growth rate of the economy, inflation rate, exchange rate and credit to the private sector on domestic investment in Nigeria. The ex-post facto research design was adopted to collect the required data. The data were analysed using the ARDL technique. The result of the analyses showed that government expenditure, interest rate spread, growth rate of the economy, inflation rate, exchange rate and credit to the private sector has no long run causality with domestic investment in Nigeria. Also, only government expenditure has short run causality with domestic investment in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study recommends government expenditure should be focused on viable long term capital projects such as infrastructure and social amenities to sustain its short term causality and establish lo...

2025, European Journal of Business and Management

The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of government budget deficit financing on economic development in Nigeria. Six research hypotheses were formulated to evaluate the relationship between government budget deficit financing, unemployment, inflation, BOP, government financing, and government revenue as the independent variables and GDP as the dependent variable. Secondary data was collected from CBN statistical bulletin. Ordinary least square regression technique was used to estimate equations formulated for the study. Results of the findings revealed that: there exists a significant relationship between budget deficit financing and economic growth in Nigeria. An inverse relationship existed between GDP and unemployment in Nigeria, a direct relationship was observed between GDP and inflation in Nigeria. The findings also show that there existed a significant relationship between GDP and government expenditure and an inverse relationship was observed betw...

2025, South Asian research journal of business and management

The research is intended to examine the impact of the independent variables, namely inflation, exchange rates, and total money in circulation, on the stock rates of companies listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Using a quantitative approach and purposive sampling method, the study cited a sample of 16 companies that were consistently listed on the JII from January 2020 to December 2023. Data analysis was carried out using panel information analysis with the help of the Eviews12 application. The research confirmed that inflation and money supply have a significant favorable impact on stock prices, through respective coefficients of 0.087409 and 0.751782. In contrast, the exchange rate has a significant adverse impact on the stock rate, through a coefficient of -1.646472. The simultaneous F-test confirms that all three variables together have a significant impact on the stock rate.

2025, RePEc: Research Papers in Economics

Evidence from an Emerging Economy -Turkey * This article examines whether various macroeconomic policy shocks have different effects on overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate by different levels of education in Turkey. These effects are assessed for total, male and female unemployment rates separately. To examine the relationship, a quarterly VAR model with a recursive order is employed to estimate the effects of real GDP, price, exchange rate, interbank interest rate, money supply and unemployment for the period from 1988:01 to 2003:04. Main findings indicate that a positive income shock reduces total unemployment while positive exchange rate and interbank interest rate innovations both increase the unemployment rate during the initial periods. The responses of high school educated unemployment rate to five macroeconomic variable shocks are different than the response of other educational unemployment rates. Furthermore, the overall results across gender are similar.

2025, Advances in Management and Applied Economics

The paper examines the determinants of inflation in some West African countries. Using the Johansen technique and time series between 1970q1 and 2010q4 the study determines whether inflation in these African countries is mainly imported (via import prices and exchange rate movements) or predominantly a function of domestic factors. Our results indicated that money supply, exchange rate movements, income and foreign prices have significant influences on the inflation rate in the long run. Also, short run dynamics based on an error correction model indicated that money supply, exchange rate and income, and in some countries foreign prices have notable effects on inflation.

2025, African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

PurposeThis paper investigates the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria after controlling for the quality of the legal system, size of central bank asset, banking sector cost efficiency and bank insolvency risk.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the generalised method of moments (GMM) regression methodology to estimate the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on two measures of economic growth in Nigeria.FindingsThe abnormal increase in credit supply has a significant effect on economic growth. Abnormal increase in credit supply increases real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The abnormal increase in credit supply decreases real GDP per capita during the global financial crisis. The abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria. In contrast, the abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has...

2025, SBP Research Bulletin

Using Standard Granger Causality test, this study demonstrates that Pakistan's money supply for the period 19802003 is not exogenously determined in the short run. Empirical results support the Structuralists' view as well as... more

2025, Strathmore University

This study assessed the impact of macroeconomic determinants, particularly interest rates and
exchange rates, on bond liquidity in the Kenyan market. Data encompassing monthly trading
volume, CBK reference rates, and USD/KES exchange rates, from January 2018 to December
2022 were collected from the CBK, the NSE, World Bank, and KNBS sources. Employing a
descriptive research design, this investigation analysed the fluctuations of independent
variables and measured the mean and standard deviation of bond liquidity, the dependent
variable. Multiple regression analysis using Stata software revealed the quantitative
relationship between benchmark interest rates, currency exchange rates, and bond liquidity,
alongside additional scrutiny on control variables. Graphical representations illustrated trends
for both dependent and independent variables. Comprehensive presentations of regression
models, comprising tables, scatter diagrams, histograms, and line graphs, highlighted the
outcomes. Government bonds, esteemed for their security and considered risk-free investment
options, attracted risk-averse investors seeking stable returns amidst market uncertainties.
Liquidity measures, in this case as trading volumes in primary and secondary markets, provided
insights into government bond performance. The study confirmed the widespread belief that
fluctuations in interest rates significantly influence bond liquidity, demonstrating a direct
impact on interest rates resulting in a substantial decrease in bond trading volume. Conversely,
the analysis revealed a minimal impact of exchange rate volatility on bond trading volume,
with observed changes not reaching statistical significance. These findings contributed to a
deeper understanding of market dynamics, offering valuable insights for market participants
and stakeholders. Furthermore, the research enriched the financial literature by illuminating the
intricate relationship between macroeconomic factors and bond liquidity in the Kenyan market.
Further research is needed on how exchange rates impact bond market dynamics, among other
macroeconomic factors.

2025

This thesis contributes to the research on determinants and welfare effects of real exchange rate movements. Chapters two to four focus on a discussion of money supply shocks as one of the sources of changes in the real exchange rate. More specifically chapter two contains a critical overview of empirical and theoretical research that contributes to our understanding of the monetary transmission mechanism in open economies. The chapter analyses two specific classes of models, liquidity models and sticky price models and investigates to which degree these models are able to rationalise the result of related empirical studies. The third chapter focuses on the determinants of the welfare effects of money supply shocks across countries if prices are sticky. It analyses specifically the implications of different forms of price stickiness. Furthermore it combines these nominal rigidities with different real imperfections in the labour market. The chapter concludes that the impact of a mon...

2025, IFAC Proceedings Volumes

2025, Research Journal of Finance and Accounting

There seems to be a general perception that the exchange rate pass-through is the most important channel in the transmission process of monetary policy in Albania. This perception is questioned here in light of the altering relationships in this developing economy. A discussion on the transmission channels in the Albanian economy is followed by a study of the macro-economic relationships and pragmatic econometrics quantifying the monetary effectiveness. The results indicate that the dollar has become less important in the monetary transmission process at the benefit of the euro. There are moreover strong signs that the exchange rate channel as such is loosing its influence at the benefit of the other transmission channels, like the credit channel and most likely the wage channel. However, economists have tested the PPP theory, pursuing criticisms on the accuracy of this paradigm vis-a-vis the long-run behaviour of the real exchange rate. Studies from Froot and Rogoff (1991) and MacDonald (1995) look at it from this perspective. Under continuous scrutiny, both theoretically and empirically, the PPP theory is generally understood to be able to, at best, determine the real exchange equilibrium only in the very long horizon, which typically overcomes relevant timeframes for economic policy and cannot provide an understanding of factors behind short and mid-term deviations from equilibrium.

2025

Purpose -Little is known about the quantitative impact of macro policies on disaggregated variables. This study investigates the effects of macroeconomic policies and cost/supply shocks on sectoral output growth. Design/methodology/approach -We analyzed empirical evidence from Ghana using a Structural Vector Autoregression approach. Findings -The results show that the transmission of various macro policies and supply/cost shocks is conditional on sectoral idiosyncrasies. Fiscal programs contribute the most to agricultural output growth and the least to industrial production. The downturn from rising costs and supply disruptions is more severe and lasting in the agriculture sector than in the service sector. The evidence shows that fiscal consolidation centered on government consumption cuts would not drag growth over the medium-term. Practical implications -Our results show that the structural characteristics of a country may play an important role in understanding the output effects of macro policy changes. The empirical evidence shows that targeted policies are needed to complement countercyclical macroeconomic policies to facilitate broad-based economic recovery. Originality/value -Research on the impact of macro policy shocks on the real economy has usually focused on the behavior of highly aggregated variables. In this research, we focus on disaggregated, sector-level variables to unveil the idiosyncrasies in the performance of disaggregated variables that are usually concealed when studying the behavior of aggregate variables. This study also contributes a different angle to the debate on supply shocks by examining how cost shocks are propagated through the various sectors of the economy.

2025, Article

This study examines the impact of real interest rate on Saudi Arabia's real GDP over the period 1983 to 2023. The study uses linear-log time series dynamic model based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) modelling technique to analyze the long & short-run impact of changes of real interest rate on real GDP in Saudi Arabia over the sample period using the World Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank annual data. The long run results show that the relationship between real interest rate and real GDP is negative and significant. In the short run, however, the results show that the relationship is negative but insignificant in the initial year, while it turns into a positive and significant in a one lag period. The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) is suggested to decrease the real interest rate since this will lead to an increase in the country's real GDP in the long run. In the short run, however, and in order to increase the country's real GDP, it is suggested to increase the real interest rate in a one lag period.

2025, International journal of economics, business and management research

Several academics argue that a country's economic performance, especially its economic growth, is determined by investment, which in turn is influenced by interest rates. They argue further by saying that interest rate management is one of the main monetary policy tools used by decisionmakers to guide and regulate an economy. Nigerian officials initiated several initiatives aimed at stimulating private sector investment and advancing economic growth. However, it is uncertain how impactful these economic strategies are in achieving the desired outcomes. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of interest rates, money supply growth, and institutional quality on investment growth in Nigeria. The study utilised 68 quarters of time series data (2006Q1 to 2022Q4) based on an ex-post facto research design. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was utilized to assess the impact of interest rates, money supply expansion, and institutional quality on the growth of investment in Nigeria. The study found that interest rates have a long-run significant co-integrating relationship with investment growth in Nigeria (Adj R2 = 0.811; F-stat (4, 63) = 98.323, p < 0.05). The study found that prime lending rate, monetary policy rate, money supply growth, and institutional quality are significant factors influencing changes in investment growth in Nigeria. The study www.ijebmr.com Page 286 recommends that the monetary authority adopt interest rate levels that would attract investment into the productive sectors of the economy and also consider the appropriate channeling of money supply to important economic sectors that require more liquidity support.

2025, Banks and Bank Systems

The issue of whether money supply is a dependent or an independent variable remains a debating one, especially with the ongoing development and innovation of institutions, tools, and financial, monetary, and banking derivatives. In general, we can say that there are two trends of thought about the issue under consideration. The first trend views money supply as an exogenous variable because the monetary authority can control and monitor it. The second one views money supply as an endogenous variable because Federal Bank has no ability to affect it, especially when nominal or money income is changed and reflected on money multiplier and money supply, and also when the monetary authority cannot restrict the monetary expansion as a result of different factors related to the economy structure or related to other non-economic factors.

2025, IIARD International Journal of Economics and Business Management

The right to strike is an integral part of the right of workers to associate with other persons to form or join trade unions for the advancement or protection of their interests. This paper examines the basic provision of the extent to which the right to go on strike by trade unions in Nigeria is absolute under various enactments. The paper further examines and reviews the right to strike in some selected jurisdictions. The relevant constitutional provisions entrenching the fundamental right of freedom of association as well as the provisions of other national and international legal instruments which guarantee the right to strike were discussed in full detail. Furthermore, this paper examines the rationale for the ban on strikes in essential services. It also examines the conditions which workers who are not engaged in the provision of essential services must fulfill before they can embark on lawful strikes. These conditions are examined in the light of international labour standards. The paper contained different types of strikes, the steps trade unions follow before going on strike, the right to strike by the trade union, and different schools of thought as regard to trade unions in Nigeria going on strike.

2025, MPRA Paper

Using monetary policy rate and/or changes in certain liquidity ratios, State Bank of Pakistan influences cost and/or availability of money and credit in the country to achieve (government announced) inflation target without being prejudice to real economic growth target. Earlier, SBP had been following monetary aggregate targeting to achieve its objectives. Reserve money had been used as an operational target. After weakening of broad money growth and inflation relation (as a result of financial sector reforms and restructuring), SBP transferred the operational target to the overnight money market repo rate. Various monetary conditions indicators are used to decide on the direction and magnitude of monetary policy stance. Budget deficit (with its financing mix), money supply (with its composition), local currency prices of imported goods, wheat support price, and expected (higher) inflation play an significant role in generating inflation while real income growth, and (international trade) openness help dampening it. Inflation in Pakistan has been found equals to rate of broad money growth minus the real output growth which simply shows inflation in Pakistan has mainly been a monetary phenomenon. Monetary policy has provided stable background for the economy as we saw standard deviations for inflation and broad money growth to be same during 1951-2010. Financial sector reforms and restructuring (after end 1980s) helped lower the (broad money growth and) inflation volatility in the country.

2025, International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER)

This paper uses cointegration vector error correction analysis to test the stability of the demand for real broad money (M2) in Nigeria over the quarterly period 1986:1 to 2001:4 in order to ascertain whether recent macroeconomic developments such as the implementation of the structural adjustment programme (SAP) in 1986; the liberalization of the exchange rate, domestic interest rate, and capital accounts; financial deepening and innovations; changes in monetary policy regimes; and increased integration of the economy with the rest of the world may have caused the real broad money demand function to become structurally unstable. Our empirical results indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the real broad money aggregate, real income, inflation rate, domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate, and expected exchange rate. Furthermore, both the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of the short- and long run parameters of the real money demand function. T...

2025, Revista de economía institucional

Un tema fundamental de la economía monetaria es la endoge-neidad del dinero, es decir, el surgimiento del dinero en forma natural y no por imposición externa. Para formular una teoría del dinero endógeno hay que diferenciar las economías... more

2025

The objective of this paper is to gain an insight into the Greek hyperinflation that occurred during the period 1941-1946. In doing so, a relatively novel data-set in conjunction with the bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction models developed within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, shed additional light on the underlying long-run relationship between money supply and inflation. Granger causality tests between money supply and prices are also conducted in the effort to ascertain the direction of causality between money supply and the (hyper)inflation rate.

2025, Rivista internazionale di scienze economiche e commerciali

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the nature of the money supply
for the Greek economy. The theoretical model is based on the production cost
hypothesis and the econometric methodology is based on the cointegration relations
among the variables and the associated notion of causality. The results showed that
there is feedback between real income and money supply, between the price level and
the money supply, and between money supply and real wages. The econometric evidence rules out the hypothesis of money supply exogeneity, and lends support to the view of the endogenous character of money supply.

2025, Proceedings of the International scientific and practical conference “Bulgaria of regions”

The international banking community, in the face of the United Nations Environmental Program Finance Initiative (UNEP), recognizes the need for a fundamental change in the banks' approach to the economy. In the context of this way of thinking is the Positive Impact Manifesto, adopted by this organization in May 2016. It states that banks should use their unique position as intermediaries between the real economy and the capital markets and begin to reorient their business models to finance sustainable development, an integral part of which is environmental protection. The aim of this change must be to realize a fully positive impact from its activities, which in turn is defined as "demonstrably leading to a positive impact on the economy, society and the environment, after due consideration and minimization of all negative impacts". The purpose of this study is to analyze some good practices in three countries leading into circular economy orientated policies -China, Brazil and Peru, and based on this analysis, to draw some insights into the future of banking in the transition from linear to circular economy.

2025, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development

Exchange rates play an important role in economic growth especially through foreign trade. Exchange rates in Kenya have been experiencing fluctuations since the transition of the fixed exchange rate regime of the 1960s to the crawling peg of the 1970s to 1980s and lately the floating exchange rate of the 1990s to date. The exchange rate has oscillated between Kshs. 7.142 in 1960s to Kshs. 102.35 per unit US dollar in 2015. The magnitude of exchange rate fluctuations in most developing economies has attracted the interest of many scholars including economists and policy makers. These scholars have however differed on the determinants of real effective exchange rate fluctuations and their respective levels of significance. The purpose of this study therefore was to examine the relationship between money supply and real effective exchange rate fluctuations in Kenya. External debt, trade balance and inflation rate were used as the intervening variables. The study was anchored on the balance of payments theory of exchange rate determination. The study used annual time series data for the period . The study used correlational study design and it employed the stationarity tests, cointegration and ECM. The study concluded that there exists a positive significant relationship between money supply, trade balance, inflation rate and real effective exchange rate fluctuations in Kenya. An increase in money supply also leads to depreciation in the Kenyan shilling same to an increasing inflation rate. An increasing debt burden depreciates the Kenyan shilling. These results are in conformity with the balance of payments theory of exchange rate determination. The study recommends that policy makers should formulate sound credit control policies to control money supply in the economy.

2025, International Journal of Business and Management Sciences E

The construction industry is a crucial part of economic development, and its performance dynamics are influenced by macroeconomic variables such as GDP, interest rates, inflation trends, and government policies. The industry's health is closely linked to a healthy economy, and the performance of domestic and foreign economies always affects expansion or contraction in construction projects. Higher interest rates can increase financing costs, reducing construction activities, but historically, rising consumer prices have led to increased material and labour costs and longer project timelines. The government's role is also highlighted, as policy changes can propel or curtail industry development. The study also examines international economic trends, such as global trade and investment patterns, which impact the construction industry and contribute to transnational governance under the framework of globalization. To address these challenges, strong economic policies, optimized regulation, and a deeper understanding of the industry's cyclical nature are essential. This analysis provides a broad perspective on the economic foundations of the construction industry, allowing decision-makers in business and policy to make more strategic choices.

2025, Transylvanian review of administrative sciences

The recent financial crisis has seriously shaken economies around the world, and raised serious doubts about the long-term viability of the public policies to remedy market imperfections. The effect has been pronounced for Romania, a newly transitioned country with a fragile market economy due to political, economic and social consequents. This paper examines the correlation between fiscal policy and financial stability in Romania in the period from 1990 to 2011. Specifically, we analyze the country’s main monetary and fiscal policy decisions and their associations with macro-economic variables, highlighting the requirements for a sustainable macro-economic policy and whether such requirements have been met in Romania. Based on the results, we further outline recommendations to improve Romania’s public policy initiatives, considering the specific correlations between monetary and fiscal policies. The results for the period under study indicate that fiscal and monetary policies promo...

2025, Quarterly Review

Chile and Mexico, like most of the other countries in Latin America, experienced severe economic crises in the early 1980s that led to large drops in output. For these two countries, the paths of recovery from these crises differed markedly. Chart 1 shows that real output per working-age (15-64-year-old) person in Chile returned to trend in about a decade and grew even faster than trend during the 1990s. 1 In contrast, real output in Mexico was still about 30 percent below trend in 2000. For Mexico, like much of the rest of Latin America, the 1980s were a "lost decade" while for Chile they were a "found decade" in which the economy began to grow spectacularly. Only after 1995 did Mexico begin to grow as Chile had done in the 1980s. In this study, we analyze four possible explanations for the different paths of recovery in the two countries. The first explanation is the standard monetarist story that, short of inducing a hyperinflation, the more rapidly a country in a severe recession expands its money supply, the faster it will recover. Although this story is not often proposed for the cases of Chile and Mexico, we examine *This article is a revision of an article published in the

2025, Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review

The paper examines the contributions of international trade statutory instruments to economic growth in Nigeria measured by real gross domestic product (RGDP). We used time series data obtained from CBN for a period of 18 years. Financial statutory instruments is one of the macroeconomic instruments with which monetary authority in a country employs in the management of money supply and the economy thereof to attain the fundamental objectives of fundamental sustainable economic growth. The monetary policy strives to explain the correlation between macro economic variables and the monetary variable and this form the focal point of this study. The study also set out to ascertain the impact of CBN money supply on the growth of Nigeria economy, ascertain the extent of correlation that exists between money supply and economic growth. Scholars in the field opined that contractionary monetary policy negatively influences total consumption, CBLA and economic growth. Within this framework, money supply, CLBA and output variables are analyzed for the period of 18 years (1994-2012) using Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) tool. The findings shows that change in money supply (M2) has significant effect on variables such as CBLA and output in Nigerian economy within the period under review, Also there is a significant strong multiple correlation among Real GDP, Money supply and Commercial Banks' loans and Advances (R= 95.1%). The coefficient of Determination (R2) reveals that 90.5% of variations in RGDP were explained by our selected explanatory variables (Money supply and Commercial Banks' loans and Advances). As such the effective and efficient management of the country's financial system have gone a long way in improve the economic growth ratio over the period under review.

2025, IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance

Monetary policy is one of the macroeconomic instruments with which monetary authority in a country employs in the management of money supply and the economy thereof to attain the fundamental objectives of price stability and maintenance of balance of payment. The monetary policy strives to explain the correlation between macro economic variables and the monetary variable and this form the focal point of this study. The study also set out to ascertain the impact of CBN money supply on the growth of Nigeria economy, ascertain the extent of correlation that exists between money supply and output. Scholars in the field opined that contractionary monetary policy negatively influences total consumption, CBLA and output. Within this framework, money supply, CLBA and output variables are analyzed for the period of 18 years (1994-2012) using Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) tool. The findings shows that change in money supply (M2) has significant effect on variables such as CBLA and output in Nigerian economy within the period under review, Also there is a significant strong multiple correlation among Real GDP, Money supply and Commercial Banks' loans and Advances (R= 95.1%). The coefficient of Determination (R2) reveals that 90.5% of variations in RGDP were explained by our selected explanatory variables (Money supply and Commercial Banks' loans and Advances).

2025, International Journal of Economics and Financial Management (IJEFM)

The study was to investigated the impact of microfinance banks on the economic growth of Nigeria. Other specific objective were to examine the effect of microfinance bank lending rate on the economic growth of Nigeria; to determine the effect of microfinance inflation rate on the economic growth of Nigeria; to evaluate the effect of micro finance exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria. The study adopted ex-post-facto research design. In collecting and collating data for the determination of effect between variables under study, secondary data was predominantly used. The methods of analysis used are descriptive statistics and regression analysis. The study shows that microfinance bank lending rate does have positive significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Also, microfinance inflation rate does have positive significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Micro finance exchange rate has significant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the findings thereof, the study concludes that microfinance banks have significant influence on economic growth of Nigeria. Based on the result the study recommended that microfinance institutions should channel very high proportion of their credits to the productive and real sectors of the economy for valuable impact of their operations on Nigeria's economic growth. More attention be given to the issue of inflation and its dampening effect on the economy. Microfinance banks (MFBs) should be front-liners of ethical and professional conduct by ensuring that soft loans are given to credible and promising entrepreneurs.

2025, International journal of applied research

This study examines the relationship between the copper price and the nominal exchange rate between the Zambian kwacha and the U.S. dollar. For this purpose the study utilized monthly data on copper prices and the kwacha/US dollar exchange rate for the period 2000 to 2014 and controlled for the effects of domestic productivity, inflation and interest rates on government securities in Zambia and the United States. The study applied econometric techniques of cointegration, granger causality, impulse responses and variance decomposition to analyze interrelationships among these variables. The study found that international copper prices, domestic productivity and short term interest rates on government securities have a positive long run impact on the exchange rate between the two currencies. The study further finds that domestic inflation and short term interest rates on Treasury securities in the United States have a negative effect on the exchange rate between the two currencies in ...

2025

Este trabajo trata de profundizar en el papel de la información del momento económico cuando ésta se incorpora a los modelos de valoración de activos. Para ello, en primer lugar, se hace una descripción de la teoría de valoración de activos que engloba todos los modelos de valoración existentes, tanto estáticos como dinámicos, así como las dos formas fundamentales de contemplar dinamismo. Además, se acompaña de una ilustración, para el caso del mercado español, que presenta los resultados empíricos de tres modelos clásicos en la literatura, el CAPM estándar, un modelo CAPM con consumo y el modelo de tres factores de Fama y French (1993). El trabajo muestra los resultados cuando se utilizan dos formas diferentes de condicionar: modelos escalados a la Cochrane (1996) y modelos condicionados a la Jagannathan y Wang (1996). Encontramos que el comportamiento empírico de los modelos condicionales mejora respecto a sus versiones incondicionales, donde además, los modelos escalados presenta...

2025

This document aims to analyze the impact on the sustainability of the Central Bank of Uruguay's balance sheet of having defined several simultaneous targets. Potential conflicts between these different targets are studied through a standard model of dynamic analysis of central banks' balance sheets. This situation is first addressed from a theoretical point of view and is afterwards analyzed after a calibration of the Central Bank of Uruguay's information. This study proves that the coexistence of the Central Bank's inflation target and reserve accumulation target results in a systematic deterioration of its balance sheet. The simulations of the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Uruguay show that, even after the 2010 capitalization, to continue the level of accumulation of reserves carried out in recent years, results in a systematic and increasing deterioration of this balance.

2025

Abstract. This document aims to analyze the impact on the sustainability of the Central Bank of Uruguay’s balance sheet of having defined several simultaneous targets. Potential conflicts between these different targets are studied through a standard model of dynamic analysis of central banks’ balance sheets. This situation is first addressed from a theoretical point of view and is afterwards analyzed after a calibration of the Central Bank of Uruguay’s information. This study proves that the coexistence of the Central Bank’s inflation target and reserve accumulation target results in a systematic deterioration of its balance sheet. The simulations of the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Uruguay show that, even after the 2010 capitalization, to continue the level of accumulation of reserves carried out in recent years, results in a systematic and increasing deterioration of this balance.