Structural change and economic dynamics Research Papers (original) (raw)

2025, Approaches in Tourism Modelling

2025, Quality & Quantity

The aim of this paper is to construct a technological index to measure the efficiency level of firms, in such a way that it takes into account simultaneously both the quantity and quality of scientific research. To this end, we use a statistical approach based on fuzzy theory. We explore data for 682 international firms relative to three economic areas, namely the USA, Japan and Europe. Data concerning firms' patents were obtained from the European Patent Office. We implement a statistical analysis based on fuzzy theory through three steps: (1) choice of the variables; (2) construction of the membership function (mf); (3) calculation of the weights associated with each mf; (4) aggregation of the mf.

2025, Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika)

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the evidence and impact of the EU integration between 1999 and 2009 on the EU regional economic growth and the socio-economic convergence. A regional convergence analysis is performed in order to examine if the EU overall aim of convergence is reached. The main growth- and convergence theories are used as the theoretical framework and form the study's hypothesis. The results show that an absolute β-convergence exists between the EU member states as well as regions. However, the σ-convergence is not confirmed, meaning that that the disparities between the regions are rather increasing than decreasing. Perhaps a possible reason why the σ-convergence does not occur at the EU level is that it is easier for smaller regions which are more similar to each other to converge than for larger regions which tend to be more dissimilar to each other. This reasoning is in line with the convergence theories which state that smaller regions within a countr...

2025

Alfred W. Crosby. Imperialismo ecológico. La expansión biológica de Europa, 900-1900 (Por Tomás Pérez Vejo).-- Pedro Pérez Herrero. Plata y libranzas: La articulación comercial del México borbónico (Por Carlos Marichal).-- Ramón Lanza García. Población y familia campesina en el Antiguo Régimen (Por Miguel Ángel Melón Jiménez).-- Fernando Cortés Cortés. Esclavos en la Extremadura Meridional en el Siglo XVII (Por Alfonso Rodríguez Grajera).-- Rafael Domínguez Martín. Actividades comerciales Y transformaciones agrarias en Cantabria: 1750-1850 (Por Patricio Pérez).-- Ll. Ferrer Alos. Pagesos, rebassaires i industriáisa la Catalunya central (Segles XVIII i XIX) (Por Josep Pujol Andreu).-- Ramón Garrabou (ed.). La crisis agraria de fines del Siglo XIX (Por Fausto Dopico).-- Actas del II Congreso sobre Archivos Económicos de entidades privadas; Fuentes para la historia de la banca y del comercio en España (Por Santiago M. López).-- Mario Rapoport (comp.). Economía e historia. Contribucione...

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

This paper explores the performance of current statistical classification systems in classifying firms and, in particular, their ability to distinguish between firms that provide services and firms that provide manufacturing. We find that a large share of firms, almost 20%, are not classified as expected based on a comparison of their statements of activities with the assigned industry codes. This result is robust to analyses on different levels of aggregation and is validated in an additional survey. It is well known from earlier literature that industry classification systems are not perfect. This paper provides a quantification of the flaws in classifications of firms. Moreover, it is explained why the classifications of firms are imprecise. The increasing complexity of production, inertia in changes to statistical systems and the increasing integration of manufacturing products and services are some of the primary and interrelated explanations for this lack of precision. We emphasise, however, that such classification problems are not resolved using a 'technical fix'. Any statistical classification method involves a number of tradeoffs.

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

The role of training and human capital accumulation as a source of innovation and growth is studied within an evolutionary microsimulation model. Firms within the model learn about technology through radical/incremental innovation and imitation. General human capital increases the probability of innovation whereas specific human capital increases technical efficiency. Firms endogenously determine the level of investment in fixed and current assets, R&D activities, and education and training. Human capital accumulation through investment in education and training is shown to be a source of economic growth even though firms tend to under-invest in these activities because they cannot fully recoup training costs when workers quit. The paper investigates the effects of various training policies on macro-performance. The first policy is to subsidise all education and training activities. The second policy requires firms to spend a certain percentage of the wage bill on training activities. In the third case, the government subsidises training activities if the firm hires unemployed people, and pays the social security contributions for 1 year. We experiment with these policies because many European countries adopt similar policies to cure the unemployment problem and to enhance economic growth. By running 101 experiments for each policy, increasing the parameter value step by step, we are able to test the impact of training policies on macro-economic performance (manufacturing growth rates, unemployment, etc.), and to estimate policy elasticities through econometric techniques. The results suggest that some subsidy policies are effective in improving the long-run macro-per-* Corresponding author.

2025

Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho e identificar quais foram as principais fontes de crescimento da producao industrial do Brasil no periodo entre 2000 e 2009. Utilizando as Matrizes de Insumo-Produto do ano final e inicial, a expansao da producao industrial foi decomposta em contribuicoes de mudancas da demanda final, de mudancas da tecnologia e interacao entre ambas. Para analisar o desempenho do setor industrial, foi realizado o mesmo processo para o setor agropecuaria e servicos. Posteriormente, foi mensurada a contribuicao de cada efeito sobre os setores que compoe a Industria. Alem disso, este trabalho calculou as contribuicoes desagregadas por categoria de demanda final de cada um dos 39 setores da Industria. Os resultados mostram que a principal fonte de crescimento da producao industrial, no periodo em analise, foi o efeito das mudancas da demanda final. Outro aspecto importante, foi a constatacao de desindustrializacao no pais, pois no periodo em questao, observou-se que o ...

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

This paper tests the classical hypothesis of inter-industry profit rate's proclivity to gravitate towards the economy's average profit rate. In so doing, individual as well as panel unit root tests have been applied on a dataset consisting of 52 Japanese manufacturing industries spanning the period 1974-2008. The evidence generated is rather mixed in a sense that the inter-industry profit rates tendency to gravitate towards the economy's average rate of profit depends on the idiosyncratic characteristics of each industry. However, the rate of profit of regulating capitals, as this is reflected in the incremental rate of profit, displays gravitational behaviour around the economy-wide incremental rate of profit, the movement of which is found to be linked to the rate of return in the stock market. These results lend support to those who contend that the classical theory of competition is an area where further research is warranted.

2025, Report

This report investigates the funding mechanisms supporting Local Economic Development (LED) initiatives across seven regions in Tanzania: Kilimanjaro, Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Kigoma, Iringa, Dodoma, and Mtwara. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study explores the main funding sources, allocation mechanisms, financial management practices, and the effectiveness of these systems in sustaining LED projects. Key findings reveal that LED funding primarily relies on government grants, local revenue, private sector investments, international aid, and community contributions, with significant disparities in access and reliability across regions. Successful projects, such as Kilimanjaro's water supply system and Dodoma's sunflower oil processing initiative, highlight the importance of community engagement, effective partnerships, and capacity building. Conversely, failed projects, like Kigoma's market infrastructure, underscore challenges such as bureaucratic delays, misalignment with local needs, and poor financial oversight. The report identifies systemic issues, including over-reliance on centralized funding, limited transparency, and inequitable resource distribution, which hinder the success of LED initiatives. Recommendations include diversifying funding sources, enhancing financial management capacity, improving transparency, fostering public-private partnerships, and encouraging community ownership. The study emphasizes the need for systemic reforms to optimize LED funding systems and align them with Tanzania's broader economic transformation goals.

2025, Economía Chilena

Quizás una de las invenciones más impresionantes del ser humano es la creación del dinero. En particular, el dinero fiduciario. Que los individuos estén dispuestos a aceptar trozos esencialmente inútiles de papel bajo la promesa que... more

2025

This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980snotably the globalization of firms and industriescombined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupted the path of industrial and technological development that Brazil had pursued since the 1930s. In essence, growth strategies based on the scale of the domestic market ceased to be effective. The innovation and economic challenges the country now faces cannot be addressed without a clear understanding of these processes.
The analysis carries important policy implications, centered on the need for less protectionism and greater internationalization of firms. Reversing the inward-looking orientation of the Brazilian industry is a key objective for any policy aiming to stimulate increased business R&D and innovation.

2025, Economia e Politica Industriale

This paper builds upon Pellegrino et al. (Struct Chang Econ Dyn 23:329-340, 2012) further analysing the determinants of product innovation in Italian young innovative companies (YICs) by looking at in-house and external R&D and at the acquisition of external technology in its embodied and disembodied components. A Tobit approach is applied to study jointly the occurrence of product innovation and the intensity of such innovation. Results provide evidence that inhouse R&D is linked to product innovation both in mature firms and YICs; however, YICs turn out to be less in-house R&D-based and, unlike their mature counterparts, more dependent on external sources of knowledge. While this outcome corroborates and further reinforce what found-using a different methodology-in Pellegrino et al. (Struct Chang Econ Dyn 23:329-340, 2012), in this study, other entrepreneurial attitudes such as the ability to cooperate with other firms in producing innovation or the capacity to develop significant organizational changes are also investigated. The results of the econometric estimations show that these attitudes turn out to be key innovative strategies in the incumbent firms but, in some specific cases (such as for the ability to cooperate), appear to be far less important in the YICs. These results are somehow worrying, since they show that Italian innovative entrepreneurs are mostly driven by routinized rather than creative strategies.

2025, Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Dan Bisnis

Indonesia is currently undergoing an economic transformation to become a developed country, but premature deindustrialization and uneven manufacturing industry between western and eastern Indonesia may hinder economic development. This study aims to identify determinants of Indonesia's declining manufacturing industry output, which has led to premature deindustrialization and uneven manufacturing industry. Data sample used is a panel dataset of 34 provinces during the period 2015-2023 which was analyzed using panel data regression and spatial autoregressive combined (SAC). The novelty of this study lies in production function perspective and spatial regression. This study finds that foreign direct investment, domestic investment, labor, and trade openness have a significant positive effect on manufacturing industry output, while average years of schooling and minimum wage have no significant effect on manufacturing industry output in Indonesia. In addition, there is no significant spillover effect from neighboring provinces that determines manufacturing industry output in Indonesia during the observation period. Policymakers are expected to increase value and investment projects, employment opportunities, formal education quality, capital goods imports, and final goods exports. In addition, minimum wage needs to be adjusted according to regional conditions and provide employment affirmation to local labor.

2025, Nierówności Społeczne a Wzrost Gospodarczy / Uniwersytet Rzeszowski

Translacja jest w nauce pojęciem wieloznacznym i zazwyczaj oznacza najogólniej rzecz biorąc swego rodzaju przekształcenie, lecz w ekonomii, a zwłaszcza w rachunkowości i finansach definiowana jest jako proces polegający na przeliczeniu wartości z jednej waluty na drugą. Może to być na przykład cena dóbr lub usług, wynagrodzenie lub PKB. Obecnie translacja, zwana też czasami konwersją wartości, oparta jest na rynkowym kursie walutowym, jako relacji pomiędzy dwiema jednostkami pieniężnymi [Pilbeam, 2006]. Taką definicję przyjmuje się również w podręcznikach do zaawansowanej rachunkowości czy finansów [Meigs, Meigs, 1986]. W praktyce kurs walutowy realizowany jest w transakcjach gospodarczych międzynarodowych, w wymianie walut, na przykład w kantorze wymiany walut, gdzie za 3 złote 50 groszy można kupić 1 dolara. Praktyka translacji dotyczy obecnie kilku głównych obszarów. Zauważyć można, że w porównaniach międzynarodowych wynagradzania pracowników często używa się translacji bezpośrednio za pomocą kursu walutowego. Tego typu porównania ukazały się ostatnio w "Gazecie Wyborczej". Autorzy publikacji "Ile zarabia Polak i dlaczego tak mało?" wskazują na zbyt niski poziom wynagrodzeń między innymi w Polsce, w stosunku do niemieckiej płacy [Bojanowski, Popiołek, 2011]. Zdaniem autorów poziom wynagrodzeń wyrówna się w przyszłości. Stosownie do przyjętej koncepcji autorzy doszukują się przyczyn tego stanu rzeczy w wydajności pracy, która jest niższa w Polsce niż w Niemczech. Na bazie teorii produktywności pracy należy zastanowić się, czy taki wniosek jest właściwy i teoretycznie uzasadniony. Jak wskazuje praktyka translacji, kurs walutowy używany bezpośrednio w konwersji cen dóbr i usług również nie przynosi rzetelnych rezultatów. Potwierdzenie tej tezy znaleźć można również w prasie niemieckiej. W gazecie "Deutsche Welle" w artykule pod tytułem "Polska już nie jest zagłębiem niższych cen" wskazuje się na nieopłacalność turystyki zakupowej do Polski [(http)]. Na podstawie zastosowania bieżącego, rynkowego kursu walutowego

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

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2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Cet art i c 1 e se propose d'ana 1 yser en combinant 1 es approches des théories de l'investissement et de la diffusion l'interdépendance entre les changements techniques de différents stades de l'industrie textile. Un modèle présente les relations qu'induisent les effets prix et qualité de différentes innovations. L'analyse empirique s'appuie sur un ensemble de données sur la diffusion de trois innovations majeures : l'introduction des fibres synthétiques et deux innovations radicales de process dans le filage et dans le tissage. Le modèle est estimé sur les données concernant 16 pays sur 8 ans.

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

In this paper we pursue the work started jointly with Richard M. Goodwin in the 1990s. Goodwin's later work went very much in the direction of modelling Schumpeter's insights into structural and technological transformations in the context of disaggregated models while allowing for non-full employment outcomes and macroeconomic cyclical patterns to develop anlongside these transformations. In a series of papers we have followed up this work for closed and open economies, drawing out in particular the implications of structural transformations for macrodistributional dynamics and effective demand problems. This has been analysed for advanced and catching-up economies and their interdependencies on the global stage. We shall review our modelling efforts in this respect and trace these back to Goodwin's life-long preoccupation with synthesizing disaggregated (linear) modelling with macro-dynamic analysis.

2025

This paper explores the features of a dynamic multisectoral model which focuses on the relationship between income distribution, growth and international specialization. The model is explored both for the steady-state properties and the transitory dynamics of integrated economies. Income inequality affects the patterns of growth and international specialization as the model uses non-linear Engel curves and hence different income groups are characterized by different expenditure patterns. At the same time income distribution is also reflected in the relative wage rates of skilled to unskilled workers, i.e. the skill premium, and hence the wage structure affects comparative costs of industries which have different skill intensities. The model is applied to a situation which analyses qualitatively different economic development strategies of catching-up economies (a 'Latin American' scenario and a 'South East Asian' scenario).

2025, Men and Masculinities

This article analyzes the politics of masculinity underlying contemporary marriage promotion efforts in Japan that have been implemented to redress economic and demographic decline. Drawing on theories of masculinities, I demonstrate how official discourse advances a hybrid conception of manhood encapsulated by the figure of a "domesticated salaryman," defined not only by gainful employment but also by sensitivity, engagement in housework, and joint recreation with his wife. Data from a prominent marriage promotion campaign and interviews with Japanese men and women reveal how, despite its progressive veneer, the "domesticated salaryman" as an ideal and practice fails to challenge entrenched inequalities. Instead, it reflects a classed readjustment of Japanese masculinity as it adapts to the new political economy. By situating this transformation in relation to ongoing structural change, I suggest that men's imputed place in the economy must inform how we conceptualize the shifting notions of manhood occurring today. When seen against this background, hybrid masculinity is best understood as straddling the realms of production and reproduction, and their respective gendering as masculine and feminine.

2025, Atlantic Review of Economics

El cuestionamiento de la integracion de America del Norte ha tomado fuerza en Estados Unidos debido a que considera que el superavit comercial de Mexico con el se traduce en perdida de bienestar y de empleo en su economia; desde tal punto de vista, parece ser innecesaria la continuidad del tratado de libre comercio. Este trabajo evalua la senda de crecimiento del sistema productivo del bloque comercial desde el analisis estructural y sostiene que tal camino condiciona los efectos dinamicos del producto y del empleo. Prueba que EU se ha beneficiado mas por las derramas de Canada y Mexico que las hechas hacia sus socios, no obstante, la retroalimentacion de las relaciones comerciales entre las economias y con el resto del mundo han sido favorables para cada una de ellas.

2025

La literatura sobre el comercio internacional se ha centrado tradicionalmente en el estudio de las causas del comercio, así como en el análisis de la composición de los flujos comerciales y en los motivos de su dirección hacia unos u otros países. Ha prestado, en cambio, una menor atención a algunos otros temas que son también relevantes para entender de un modo más acabado el complejo fenómeno del comercio internacional y que están abiertamente presentes en la realidad. Entre tales temas se encuentran las razones que provocan que unos países parezcan tener una mayor propensión al comercio internacional que otros, cuyo nivel de desarrollo resulta ser aparentemente similar. Porque es un hecho bien conocido que hay una considerable dispersión en los coeficientes de apertura al sector exterior, incluso entre economías parecidas. Y sobre ese hecho y las causas que lo motivan se ha investigado poco. La teoría tradicional del comercio internacional, cuyo punto de partida es David Ricardo,...

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

This paper investigates how countries become specialised in exporting specific producer services, particularly financial, communication and business services. We find that a country's ability to develop a competitive service economy depends on the structure of its manufacturing sector as some manufacturing industries are more intensive users of these services. Moreover, we find a virtuous cycle as the same service producers are also intensive users of these producer services. Finally we find that information and communication technologies have a significant impact on trade performance of these producer services.

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

This study examines the impact of innovation strategies on employment growth in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay) using micro-data for manufacturing firms from innovation surveys. Building on the model proposed by , we relate employment to three innovation strategies: make only (R&D), buy only (external R&D, licensing of patents and know-how, technical assistance, and other external innovation activities) and make and buy (mixed strategy). Firms that conduct in-house innovation activities ("make only") have the greatest impact on employment; the "make and buy" strategy comes in second. Similar results are found for small firms. These results highlight the importance of fostering in-house technological efforts not only for innovation per se, but also to promote growth in firm employment. The impact of "make only" strategies is greater in high-tech industries, whereas "make only" and "make and buy" have a similar impact on employment in low-tech industries. Finally, the study provides evidence of the mechanisms through which innovation strategies affect employment. The findings show that innovation strategies enhance technological innovation, but their impact differs between product and process innovation. Product innovation is mainly motivated by in-house technology investments, followed by mixed strategies, whereas process innovation is basically driven by "buy" strategies.

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

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2025, Pesquisa e Planejamento …

Este trabalho busca quantificar e comparar o impacto do crescimento dos complexos industriais brasi-leiros sobre a geração de emprego e de saldo comercial, utilizando as matrizes insumo-produto de 1985 a 1996. Conclui-se que a geração de... more

2025

Pretende realizar un análisis macroeconómico, valiéndose de los datos de una de las más largas experiencias en el campo del equilibrio presupuestario. La elección de finales del siglo XIX (entre un pasado de quinientos años) obedece al momento en que la nación comienza a elaborar unos presupuestos para el sustento del estado mediante sus representantes. La parte empírica consta de una regresión lineal para analizar el comportamiento de tres variables macroeconómicas, y su relación de causalidad con la ratio de la deuda con respecto al PIB. Las variables macroeconómicas elegidas son: el PIB real per cápita, la tasa nominal de interés a corto plazo y la inflación. La comparación se realiza tanto para el periodo en general, como para una división en sub-periodos en función de los máximos observados. El objetivo es extraer conclusiones de la importancia del comportamiento de las variables para cada periodo, contextualizado en su momento histórico. Los datos históricos se extraen de los diferentes estudios existentes. Estos contextualizan cada uno de los momentos que provocaron las diferentes crisis de deuda, o por el contrario las actuaciones que resultaron positivas. Se elige como eje de las explicaciones,la aparición de nuevos instrumentos económicos y financieros; la evolución y creación de las instituciones implicadas y el desarrollo del marco jurídico. El análisis finaliza con la sincronización del ciclo económico español con el mundial. El contraste tiene como objetivo reforzar las conclusiones extraídas del análisis empírico, y dar respuesta a las cuestiones. ¿Las crisis de deuda españolas son consecuencia de nuestras propias carencias? ¿En qué grado se sincronizan con las crisis económicas mundiales?

2025, Economics Bulletin

Using 16 OECD stock price indices data, this paper revisits the random walk hypothesis by inspecting the degree of persistence of stock prices. We adopt two recently developed econometric procedures, due to and , in order to estimate 95% confidence intervals for the sum of the AR coefficients in AR representations of international stock prices. Confidence intervals provide much more information than knowing whether the null hypothesis of a unit root can be rejected or not. They serve as a measure of sampling uncertainty and describe the range of models that are consistent with the observed data. The results convincingly support the view that the stock price indices in the OECD countries are highly persistent. The high persistence in the OECD stock price indices provides strong evidence for the random walk hypothesis.

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

In the paper we present and estimate an endogenous growth model in which sustained per capita growth is the result of positive externalities of investment in physical capital. In contrast to the usual assumption that investment raises physical capital and, as a byproduct, a stock of knowledge one for one, we suppose a different framework. So, we treat physical and human capital as two distinct variables and underline the importance of the stock of knowledge per physical capital as to the growth performance of countries. Estimation of that model for France, Germany and Japan shows that it is compatible with empirical data. For Great Britain the model performs poor and for the USA it does not produce reasonable outcomes at all. One conclusion we draw from our studies is that an endogenous growth model with positive externalities of investment is of empirical relevance. However, the growth process is also determined by country specific factors such that cross-countries studies should be considered with some care.

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Liberalisation transforms market structures through the responses of incumbent firms and entrants to freedom of choice. As market shares turn more volatile, the agility of small and large firms will determine changes in market structure. We analyse these processes for Indian manufacturing industries over the 18-year period from 1980, spanning the liberalisation of 1985 and more comprehensive reforms of 1991, using a data set of large and medium firms in 83 industries. We find that large changes in turbulence in market shares, and in the way firm growth was related to size tended to offset one another, producing deceptively little change in market structure itself.

2025

Liberalisation transforms market structures through the behavioural responses of incumbent firms and entrants, large firms and small, to enhanced freedom of choice. Change in market share volatility, and change in the effective agility of small and large firms underpin changes in market structure. We analyse these processes for Indian manufacturing industries over the 18-year period from 1980, spanning the domestic liberalisation of 1985 and the more comprehensive reforms of 1991, using a data set of large and medium firms in 83 industries. We find that while market structures themselves appeared to change little, turbulence in market shares, as well as the way growth is related to size responded markedly, differing in direction and magnitude, depending on whether the liberalisation was partial and domestic, or comprehensive. We find that they tended to offset each other, leading to little visible change in market structure itself. We also find that while drivers of market structure...

2025

This paper examines how variable output and profit share jointly determine investment and saving, while the difference between investment and saving determines the changes in output and profit share. Analysis of the resulting pair of differential equations yields novel implications for the multiplier process. In this more general framework a number of separate strands of the Keynesian inspired literature can be understood. In particular the model incorporating both forced saving and profit squeeze analyses stability of the dynamical system to bring out the complex relation between in-and out-of-equilibrium profit-and wage-led regimes.

2025

Public-private innovation networks in services (PPINS) are a new expression of traditional innovation networks (INs) in contemporary service economies. There are a number of ways in which this new expression differs from the other. It differs from it, first of all, by its emphasis on market services and on public and non-market services in the dynamics of innovation. But PPINS differ from INs most of all in the nature of the innovation that is taken into account (which is the subject of the network implementation). This innovation is no longer limited to economic and technological innovation, but also includes non-technological and social innovation-which most often remain invisible to our traditional analytical tools. The purpose of this paper is to examine how PPINS contribute to the implementation of invisible innovations, and thus to the introduction of invisible/hidden innovation within the innovation network tradition. It addresses the following three points: i) the nature of ...

2025

Although contemporary economies are undeniably service economies, since services are now our main source of wealth and jobs, the relationship between services, on the one hand, and innovation and performance, on the other, continues to be a matter of considerable debate. Thus in the still dominant industrialist or technologist approach to this relationship, innovation efforts and performance levels in services are underestimated. It is this approach that is responsible for the existence of two gaps: an innovation gap and a performance gap. The innovation gap indicates that our economies contain invisible or hidden innovations that are not captured by the traditional indicators of innovation, while the performance gap is reflected in an underestimation of the efforts directed towards improving performance in those economies. These gaps have their origin in certain more or less ancient myths about the fundamental nature of services and the errors of measurement associated with them. T...

2025

Differences in total factor productivity (TFP) are the dominant source of the large variation of income across countries. This paper seeks to understand which sectors account for the aggregate TFP gap between rich and poor countries. I propose a new approach for estimating sectoral TFP using panel data on sectoral employment shares and GDP per capita. The approach builds a three-sector model of structural transformation and uses it to infer time paths of sectoral TFP consistent with the reallocation of labor between sectors and GDP per capita growth of a set of developing countries over a 40year period. I find that relative to the US, developing countries are the least productive in agriculture, followed by services and then manufacturing. The findings are consistent with the evidence from micro data and the approach has the novelty to measure sectoral TFPs over the long term.

2025

John Crow's 1988 Hanson Lecture argued for making price stability the goal of Canada's monetary policy, but in the early 1990s, political and economic circumstances led policy makers to settle for a 2 percent inflation target instead. The recently instituted review of the Inflation Control Program has put price stability on the policy menu again, and the current relevance of Crow's 1988 case is assessed in the light of the past 20 years' experience.

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

During the past two decades a big effort has been made in exploring the complementarities between information and communications technology (ICT) adoption, investment in human capital and organizational change, and how these affect economic performance. Such investigations, however, remain substantially circumscribed to private sectors, while the role of these factors in Public Sector performance has been largely disregarded. In this paper we aim at filling this gap in empirical literature by combining different data-sources and constructing a panel of comparable data about output quality, input costs, ICT investments, skills and organizational changes in Public Administrations of 15 European countries. We propose an index-based approach to the measurement of PA performance relying on the adoption of public e-services as a proxy of revealed output quality, and provide an econometric analysis of how the co-evolution of ICT, skills and organizational factors affect Government effectiveness.

2025, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

This paper presents an empirical estimation of a catastrophe model of organizational adoptions of a high technology product when network externalities are present. As such, it integrates work from the economics literature and the catastrophe literature to provide a broader look adoptions issues. Additionally, it is one of the few empirical studies we are aware of that attempt to model organizational adoption of high-technology products 'for use' rather than 'for manufacture'.

2025, International Journal of Transitions and Innovation Systems

We study differences in the innovation-performance relationship between high-tech, medium and low-tech firms, based on modified Crepo, Duguet and Mairesse (CDM) model. We investigate determinants of innovation incidence and intensity based on survey of 49,760 firms from EU-13. Results show that having a higher share of employees with university education increases probability of investing in innovation. The important strategic and aesthetic changes on products have positive impact innovation decisions. Organizational rigidities, lack of information on technology, and insufficient flexibility of regulations or standards, have a negative impact on probability to innovate. Firm perceiving economic risk to be excessive invest less in innovation. Among spill-over effects, only the variable national competitors and other firms from the same industry has a significant and positive impact on both innovation decision and innovation intensity. Findings suggest that innovation is equally important for firms' performance in both high-tech and low-tech firms. The study concludes with some managerial implications.

2024, Paper

Abstract. US input-output tables are of the type where intermediate inputs record the sum of imported and domestically produced goods. In modeling exercises this implies that imports are required to be specified exogenously. This has two... more

2024, RePEc: Research Papers in Economics

We examine the relationship between growth in labor productivity and poverty reduction through the lens of changes in the structure of output and employment. Combining state-level data from India on poverty with state-level data on output and employment for 11 production sectors over 1987-2009, we find that the movement of workers from lower to higher productivity sector is an important channel through which increases in aggregate productivity translate into poverty reduction. We also find that the importance of this channel of productivity growth, termed structural change by recent literature, varies across states. Exploratory analysis reveals that indicators of financial development, business regulations that promote competition and flexible labor regulations are associated with larger reallocations of labor from lower to higher productivity sectors. Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that a better investment climate is not only good for business, it is also an important means for making growth more propoor in a labor abundant country. 1 This paper was originally published as ADB South Asia Working Paper. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. 2 Rana Hasan is Principal Economist at the India Resident Mission, Asian Development Bank.

2024, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

This paper analyzes the impact of production complexity and its adaptability on the level of output and on its rate of growth. We develop an endogenous growth model where increased complexity raises the rate of economic growth but has an ambiguous effect on the level of output. Our empirical measure of production adaptability captures the proximity of production sectors within the product space, which we modify to reflect intra-industry trade and the international fragmentation of production. We test the model against a sample of 89 countries over the two decades to 2009 and find that its main predictions are validated.

2024

Prucha and Nadiri (1982,1986,1988) introduced a methodology to estimate systems of dynamic factor demand that allows for considerable flexibility in both the choice of the functional form of the technology and the expectation formation process. This paper applies this methodology to estimate the production structure, and the demand for labor, materials, capital and R&D by the U.S. Bell System. The paper provides estimates for short-, intermediateand long-run price and output elasticities of the inputs, as well as estimates on the rate of return on capital and R&D. The paper also discusses the issue of the measurement of technical change if the firm Is in temporary rather than long-run equilibrium and the technology is not assumed to be linear homogeneous The paper provides estimates for input and output based technical change as well as for returns to scale. Furthermore, the paper gives a decomposition of the traditional measure of total factor productivity growth.

2024, Social Science Research Network

Dynamic multi-sector CGE models often utilize investment aggregation according to fixed shares. The question is, do these models come to the same policy conclusions as CGE models that derive sectoral investment shares by optimal household decisions in a framework with heterogeneous capital? Two models-a model with heterogeneous capital, and a second model with a capital aggregate (and fixed investment shares)-show that the impact of the same given tax shock is strikingly different in the two models. The paper also shows under which conditions the two models bring about "similar" policy conclusions.

2024, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

2024, Revista Econômica do Nordeste

Economista. Mestre em Economia (UFPE). brunalira@outlook.com Resumo: O PIB por trabalhador da economia do Ceará cresceu a uma média anual de 0,68% de 1987 a 2015. O presente artigo conduz uma análise de contabilidade do crescimento e outra sobre mudança estrutural, visando decompor essa taxa de crescimento. Os resultados apontam que a produtividade total dos fatores (PTF) do Ceará estagnou no longo prazo: metade do crescimento gerado pelo crescimento da PTF (0,27%) e pelo capital humano (1,09%) foi anulado pela contribuição negativa do estoque de capital físico por trabalhador. Do ponto de vista setorial, a metodologia shift-share analysis sugere que 80% do desempenho da economia foi movido pelo crescimento da produtividade setorial. Os efeitos da mudança estrutural foram responsáveis pelos 20% do crescimento restante. Palavras-chave: Crescimento econômico; produtividade total dos fatores; Ceará.

2024, Social Science Research Network

This paper discusses the relationship between firms' access to credit market and business fluctuations in a sequential Neo-Austrian economy. Existence of cycles reflects a fundamental distortion in the intertemporal structure of production, that is a lack of coordination between utilization of productive capacity and construction of new machines. The role of credit market institutions is to sustain viability of the economy along an out-of-equilibrium transition. Allowing for a high degree of price flexibility turns out not to be a general response to boosts in capital accumulation and employment. When we focus on an irreversible, offequilibrium dynamics the coordination of policy interventions becomes a relevant tool to govern fluctuations.