MLB Prospects Who Added The Most Fastball Velocity In 2024 (original) (raw)
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Image credit: Quinn Mathews (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
Last season, we looked at which prospects added the most velocity to their fastballs in 2023. There were several notable names included in last season’s list, including Cole Ragans, Tobias Meyers and Jack Perkins.
In the same fashion as last year, we set a minimum of 100 fastballs thrown in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons for this year’s list. While this minimum threshold isn’t substantial by most measures— it equates, on average, to just over two starts or six relief appearances—it provides us a better baseline from which we can gather data.
We broke the fastball types into two groups: four-seam fastballs and two-seam fastballs. We also included a section exclusively for Top 100 Prospects to show how the highest-rated pitching prospects in the game either improved or declined in average velocity.
For several Top 100 prospects who were selected in either the 2023 or 2024 draft classes and did not pitch professionally in 2023, we applied NCAA pitch data from that season. A noted omission on year-over-year pitch data is Travis Sykora, who was the only high school pitcher from either class to make the Top 100 and not pitch in 2023 as a professional or as collegiate.
Four-Seam Fastballs
| player | org | throws | velo (2024) | velo (2023) | yoy +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesar Gomez | HOU | R | 94.9 | 91.4 | 3.5 |
| Brett Wichrowski | MIL | R | 94.6 | 91.2 | 3.4 |
| Wilber Dotel | PIT | R | 95.8 | 92.7 | 3.1 |
| Corey Avant | OAK | R | 93.3 | 90.2 | 3.1 |
| Eliazar Dishmey | MIA | R | 94.5 | 91.5 | 3 |
| Misael Tamarez | HOU | R | 95.5 | 92.6 | 2.9 |
| Luigi Hernandez | PIT | R | 92.9 | 90 | 2.9 |
| Roman Angelo | AZ | R | 94 | 91.2 | 2.8 |
| Walbert Urena | LAA | R | 97.4 | 94.7 | 2.7 |
| Joe Elbis | AZ | R | 92.3 | 89.6 | 2.7 |
| Listher Sosa | AZ | R | 96.6 | 94.1 | 2.5 |
| Donye Evans | DET | R | 93.2 | 90.8 | 2.4 |
| Grant Rogers | TOR | R | 91.7 | 89.4 | 2.3 |
| Carson Pierce | TOR | R | 92.7 | 90.5 | 2.2 |
| Jonathan Petit | PHI | R | 93.2 | 91 | 2.2 |
| Jose Rengel | SF | L | 91.4 | 89.2 | 2.2 |
| Ben Ethridge | MIN | R | 90.2 | 88 | 2.2 |
| Ivan Armstrong | LAA | R | 94.4 | 92.2 | 2.2 |
| Chen-Wei Lin | STL | R | 96.2 | 94 | 2.2 |
| Zach Bryant | BOS | R | 93.8 | 91.7 | 2.1 |
| Rayner Castillo | DET | R | 95.8 | 93.7 | 2.1 |
| RJ Petit | DET | R | 95.8 | 93.8 | 2 |
| Miguel Gomez | WSH | R | 92.3 | 90.3 | 2 |
| Ryan Middendorf | MIL | R | 95.8 | 93.8 | 2 |
Key Takeaways
- Brett Wichrowski was an early breakout candidate this season when he showed added velocity in spring training. That seems to have carried through, as he’s one of the top velocity gainers in all of the minor leagues for 2024.
- Eliazar Dishmey of the Marlins was another name with early spring buzz who carried his gains through to in-season play. A young talented arm, his three mph added might not be the end of the potential gains for Dishmey.
- The Pirates’ Wilber Dotel saw a sizable jump in stuff, and it translated to more swing-and-miss this season with Greensboro. Unfortunately, it coincided with a tough year, as his home run rate in a hitting-friendly park spiked to 1.78 HR/9. Dotel’s opponents’ batting average also jumped by over 20 points year-over-year despite the improved stuff. Not all gains translate immediately.
- Cesar Gomez added the most velocity to his four-seamer of anyone in our sample. But the 26-year-old struggled after a late-June promotion to Triple-A and was demoted by the Astros to Double-A in early August.
- The Diamondbacks’ Roman Angelo translated newfound power on his fastball into stellar results in 2024. Angelo’s 29.7% strikeout rate ranks 24th among the 313 pitchers that threw 100 or more innings in the minors this season. Angelo was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of Fresno State following the 2023 draft.
- Angels 20-year-old righthander Walbert Urena saw a substantial increase in velocity—he sat at 97.4 mph as a starter over 16 starts spanning 77.1 innings—but it translated to mediocre results.
- The D-backs had a pair of velocity jumpers in righthander Joe Elbis and Listher Sosa, each of whom produced solid results this season.
- The Cardinals’ Chen-Wei Lin consistently lit up Florida State League radar gun, gaining a small cult following among those following FSL Hawk Eye data in the process. He was one of the biggest breakouts in the Cardinals system in 2024.
- 2024 might be the season of the Tigers, as everything they’ve touched this year has turned to gold. They’re tied with the D-backs with three velocity jumpers in Donye Evans, Rayner Castillo and R.J. Petit. All three produced solid results in 2024, showing the ability to command their newfound power.
Two-Seam Fastballs
| player | org. | throws | Velo (2024) | velo (20230 | yoy +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Hoffman | BAL | R | 92 | 87.6 | 4.4 |
| Francis Pena | SD | R | 96.7 | 92.6 | 4.1 |
| Tyler Cleveland | SEA | R | 86.8 | 83.6 | 3.2 |
| Jarlin Susana | WSH | R | 98.4 | 95.5 | 2.9 |
| Ethan Routzahn | SD | R | 91.1 | 88.4 | 2.7 |
| Khristian Guevara | CIN | L | 89.4 | 86.8 | 2.6 |
| Brendan Cellucci | BOS | L | 92.9 | 90.4 | 2.5 |
| Jose Cabrera | AZ | R | 93.4 | 91.1 | 2.3 |
| Yenrri Rojas | CHC | R | 92.4 | 90.1 | 2.3 |
| Yeury Tatiz | SEA | R | 93.1 | 90.8 | 2.3 |
| Danny Young | NYM | L | 90.5 | 88.2 | 2.3 |
| Michael Flynn | TB | R | 93.4 | 91.2 | 2.2 |
| Jeffrey Colon | NYM | R | 93.3 | 91.1 | 2.2 |
| Logan VanWey | HOU | R | 93.2 | 91 | 2.2 |
| Keiverson Ramirez | STL | R | 89.7 | 87.5 | 2.2 |
| Edgar Sanchez | MIA | R | 95.1 | 93 | 2.1 |
| Dilan Figueredo | LAD | R | 95 | 92.9 | 2.1 |
| Gabriel Jackson | BOS | R | 93.5 | 91.4 | 2.1 |
| Mason Erla | LAA | R | 93.1 | 91 | 2.1 |
| Connor Thomas | STL | L | 90 | 87.9 | 2.1 |
| Naoel Mejia | PHI | R | 94.6 | 92.6 | 2 |
| Jerson Alejandro | NYY | R | 94.3 | 92.3 | 2 |
| Christian Romero | LAD | R | 92 | 90 | 2 |
| Jesus Lopez | SF | R | 91.2 | 89.2 | 2 |
| Camilo Hernandez | OAK | R | 90.3 | 88.3 | 2 |
Key Takeaways
- The Orioles’ Nolan Hoffman tops the list of two-seam fastball velocity gainers while also showing a nice balance of swing-and-miss (28.2% strikeout rate) and ground balls (51.7% GB%) in 2024. He’s still not a hard thrower and is an older prospect at 27, but he’s showing some potential ability as a reliever.
- Francis Pena dominated in Double-A in his age 23 season for the Padres before struggling at Triple-A post-promotion. Still, despite dealing with the hard-luck parks of the Pacific Coast League, Peña demonstrated the ability to miss bats and throw strikes in his first taste of the minors’ highest level.
- As if Nationals righty Jarlin Susana needed more power, he added multiple ticks to his two-seamer while generating the best results of his career.
- After a strong showing in the Arizona Complex League, Dodgers righthander Dilan Figueredo struggled to find the zone in his first taste of full-season ball. Still, he shows a power sinker that could play as he advances.
Top 100 Prospects
| player | org. | throws | Velo (2024) | velo (2023) | yoy +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Schultz | CWS | L | 96.2 | 94.8 | 1.4 |
| Thomas White | MIA | L | 95.2 | 94.3 | 0.9 |
| Quinn Mathews* | STL | L | 94.6 | 91.5 | 3.1 |
| Hagen Smith* | CWS | L | 94.9 | 92.7 | 2.2 |
| Sam Aldegheri | LAA | L | 92.4 | 91.8 | 0.6 |
| Jackson Ferris | LAD | L | 93.8 | 93.4 | 0.4 |
| Jackson Jobe | DET | R | 96.5 | 96.6 | -0.1 |
| Chase Dollander* | COL | R | 96.3 | 95.2 | 1.1 |
| Andrew Painter | PHI | R | DNP | DNP | – |
| Bubba Chandler | PIT | R | 96.8 | 95.4 | 1.4 |
| Rhett Lowder* | CIN | R | 94.4 | 92.8 | 1.6 |
| Chase Burns | CIN | R | DNP | DNP | – |
| Kumar Rocker | TEX | R | 98.1 | 95.2 | 2.9 |
| Tink Hence | STL | R | 94.1 | 95.5 | -1.4 |
| Cade Horton | CHC | R | 94.2 | 95.8 | -1.6 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | R | 95.9 | 93.9 | 2 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | R | 96.9 | 97.3 | -0.4 |
| Brandon Sproat* | NYM | R | 96.3 | 95.9 | 0.4 |
| Christian Scott | NYM | R | 94.1 | 94.3 | -0.2 |
| Noble Meyer | MIA | R | 93.1 | 93.9 | -0.8 |
| Drew Thorpe | CWS | R | 91.5 | 92.2 | -0.7 |
| Caden Dana | LAA | R | 93.9 | 93.6 | 0.3 |
| Alejandro Rosario* | TEX | R | 96.7 | 94.8 | 1.9 |
| Gary Gill Hill | TBR | R | 93.1 | 91.8 | 1.3 |
| Jarlin Susana | WAS | R | 99.8 | 98.7 | 1.1 |
| Thomas Harrington | PIT | R | 92.4 | 92.7 | -0.3 |
| Logan Evans | SEA | R | 94.5 | 93.3 | 1.2 |
| Jaden Hamm | DET | R | 92.5 | 93.1 | -0.6 |
| Emiliano Teodo | TEX | R | 98.2 | 98.1 | 0.1 |
| Travis Sykora | WAS | R | 94.9 | DNP | – |
Key Takeaways
- Thirteen pitchers in the Top 100 added at least one mph to their fastball. There are some asterisks in the mix, however, thanks to a handful of pitchers whose added velocity came year-over-year from their college velocity data.
- Quinn Mathews’ boost in velocity was one of the stories of the season, as he rode his newfound ability to great heights. Mathews pairs pitchability and stuff perfectly.
- Kumar Rocker showed some of the best stuff of his career coming off of injury in 2024, as he pitched his way into the Rangers’ rotation by the end of the season. The 24-year-old has dealt with injuries since his junior season at Vanderbil, but he looks to be all the way back for the first time in four years.
- Bubba Chandler saw his fastball take a major step forward in 2024, as he added velocity and extension while lowering his release height. This combination of attributes translated to the best results of his career. He looks like a potential rotation addition for the Pirates early in 2025.
- A majority of the pitchers who lost velocity this year dealt with injury. Prospects like Cade Horton and Tink Hence are exciting names when fully healthy, but they struggled to find their form on the mound at points this season. Hence pitched around his drop in velocity but was limited to shorter outings over the second half of the season.
- Rhett Lowder saw a jump in stuff in his professional debut, silencing some of the criticism that he didn’t have the power to dominate as a professional the way he did in the ACC with Wake Forest. He’s squarely in the Reds’ rotation plans heading into 2025.