Kyed: Patriots upgrade Super Bowl hopes, risk future with A.J. Brown trade (original) (raw)

The deal many Patriots fans manifested the day Mike Vrabel joined the organization finally went down Monday.

Months in the making, the Patriots sent a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder to the Eagles for star wide receiver A.J. Brown.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: This dramatically lifts the Patriots’ offense. Quarterback Drake Maye was an MVP candidate in 2025 with a supporting cast that could be categorized as average, at best. Brown gives the Patriots a much-needed legitimate No. 1 pass-catching option.

Stefon Diggs filled that role admirably for the Patriots in 2025, but Brown is a different caliber wide receiver.

Most of all, this deal proves the Patriots are going all in for another Super Bowl run in 2026 while Maye is still on his rookie contract. Vrabel and the Patriots took the league by storm last season by overachieving and accelerating through a rebuild to make Super Bowl LX before losing to the Seahawks.

The Patriots were outmatched in that game and made a few important tweaks to their team this offseason, but prior to June 1, it was hard to say they had significantly upgraded their roster. Now it’s as clear as day. A player like Brown can lift this team into a new realm.

Based on Brown’s age and contract, there’s a chance the wide receiver might not even be on the team when the Eagles use the Patriots’ 2028 first-round pick. So, his next couple of seasons have to come with individual and team success to make this move worth it.

Is it Super Bowl or bust in 2026? Not quite, but the Patriots are a team that wants to draft and develop, and now they’ve given up a key asset in that goal.

The deal also comes with significant risk.

Polling league sources last week, multiple scouts and executives around the league did not believe Brown was worth a first-round pick. There was even some doubt within the Eagles’ organization that general manager Howie Roseman could garner a first-round pick for the 28-year-old wide receiver.

One source pointed to the risk of trading with Roseman, noting he rarely “loses” a trade. One AFC executive placed Brown’s value around a second-round pick.

There were no other known teams in on Brown, leaving the Patriots essentially bidding against themselves.

That being said, there were plenty of people who had no problem with Brown being traded for a first-round pick, either. That’s the going rate for high-quality veteran wide receivers, one NFC analytics executive noted, highlighting the Broncos’ trade for Jaylen Waddle this offseason.

Future picks are usually traded on discount rates, however. A pick one year in the future is typically viewed as being valued one round lower. The Patriots are trading a pick two years into the future, meaning it’s valued around the league even lower than a second-round pick.

The Patriots also kept their 2027 first-round pick, which is significant, since next year’s draft is considered to be loaded. Even keeping a 2027 second-round pick feels like a win if the class lives up to the hype.

Ultimately, Vrabel and executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf believed Brown was worth the 2028 first-round pick. Vrabel knows him well from their days together with the Titans and obviously believes there will be no personality clashes with the 1,000-yard pass catcher.

Our take: The deal would look a lot better if the 2028 first-round pick came with conditions based on Brown’s performance, and it’s a testament to Roseman’s negotiating that not only did the Eagles come away with a first-round pick, they also received an additional pick in the fifth-rounder. On the surface, it feels like Roseman and the Eagles came away with a slight edge in the deal.

But if Brown can lift Maye’s game and help the Patriots reach new heights, then they won’t be missing the first-round pick by the time 2028 rolls around.

This is the first time the Patriots have traded away a first-round pick for a player since 2017, when they dealt for wide receiver Brandin Cooks. That deal helped the Patriots make Super Bowl LII, and Cooks had a 1,000-yard season before being traded away to the Rams. Another time the Patriots traded away a first-round pick? In 2000 to hire Bill Belichick. That one worked out pretty well.

Now, what does this mean for the Patriots’ offense?

Brown immediately enters the depth chart atop the wide receiver corps as Maye’s preferred top target. That slides Romeo Doubs, the Patriots’ high-priced offseason free-agent addition, down to the No. 2 spot. Expect an offseason battle for the third starting spot with a multitude of options.

Kayshon Boutte should be the front-runner for the role after taking a Year 3 leap, when healthy, in 2026. But he’ll need to fend off Mack Hollins, who was a dependable option for Maye in 2025, and Kyle Williams, a 2025 third-round pick.

Below them on the depth chart are two slot receivers, DeMario Douglas and Efton Chism, who now might be fighting for one roster spot. Jeremiah Webb and 2026 UDFAs Nick DeGennaro, Kyle Dixon, Cameron Dorner and Jimmy Kibble should be viewed as longshots for the roster.

The Patriots took a slight hit offensively when trading for Brown, placing tight end Julian Hill on injured reserve. Hill was expected to serve as the Patriots’ second tight end behind Hunter Henry until rookie Eli Raridon was ready for a full contribution. This move could accelerate Raridon’s development. The Patriots also have CJ Dippre and Tanner Arkin on their tight end depth chart. Fullback Jack Westover also might now have to move back over to tight end to fill out the depth. The Patriots already have two other fullbacks on their roster in Reggie Gilliam and Brock Lampe.

As an aside, this was one of the strangest trades in NFL history. It felt like a foregone conclusion over the last two months that a deal would be struck on this day. Patriots players were openly talking about what it would mean to have Brown on their roster all offseason.

But now it’s done, Brown can finally realize his dream of playing for the Patriots, and Vrabel and Co. can plan out their next eight months fully knowing they have their No. 1 receiver on the roster.

Happy June 1, Patriots fans. If the deal works out, let this be known as A.J. Brown day.