Why is the Number of Linux Distros Declining? | Datamation (original) (raw)
Datamation content and product recommendations are editorially independent. We may make money when you click on links to our partners. Learn More .
Also see: My Favorite Linux Applications and Desktops
The number of Linux distributions is declining. In 2011, the Distrowatch database of active Linux distributions peaked at 323. Currently, however, it lists only 285. However, exactly why the decline is taking place and how much it matters remains unclear.
Distros have always come and gone. In fact, Distrowatch lists 791 distributions that have existed since it was founded in 2001, although less than forty percent have ever been in active development at any given time. These tallies may not be complete, since some distributions probably never register with Distrowatch, but they are as accurate as anyone is likely to offer.
But until about 2011, the number of active distributions slowly increased by a few each year. By contrast, the last three years have seen just a 12% decline — a decrease too high to be likely to be coincidence. So what’s happening?
Accompanying Linux Trends
Part of the reason for the decline maybe that Linux is becoming much less a hobby and much more of a business strategy. Where hobbyists may tinker, commercial businesses are more concerned with results — specifically in decreasing time to market and lowering development costs. With these concerns, businesses are less likely to experiment for experiment’s sake, and more likely to base their development on an existing concern.
Perhaps, too, Linux supporters are aging, and, like businesses, have become less time for hobbies and more concern with immediate results. However, statistics about such a diverse group make this possibility impossible to confirm.
Another reason for the decline may be that the center of innovation has shifted in recent years from the distribution to the desktop. Although most distributions have a default desktop, most of the major ones offer at least half a dozen desktop environments, many of which encourage different work habits in users.
Except for the branding wallpaper and themes, it is usually easier these days to tell at a glance what desktop you are logged in to than which distribution you are using. Because of the almost universal tendency towards graphical package installation, you cannot even tell easily what package management system you are using, let alone the distribution.
The odds are, however, that the technology you are using is Debian’s. At least part of the decline in distributions may be that Debian’s technology dominates, and there are already Debian derivatives for every purpose that users can easily conceive.
This idea is supported by the fact, while the number of distributions has decreased, the number based upon Debian or its most popular derivative Ubuntu has gone from 63% of the total number of distributions in 2011 to 70%.
The number of Debian-derivatives has declined in that time, with a loss of four distributions based on Debian, and seven on Ubuntu. Yet these figures amount to 1.5% losses, one-eighth of the general decline in distros. This decline is so small that it may represent a statistical blip rather than a trend. At the very least, Debian-derivatives are disappearing more slowly than any other distributions.
Something Worth Watching
Whatever the reason for the decline in distros, it looks as though the frontier is starting to close. Some might say that the decline hardly matters. After all 285 distributions is still more than even the most avid user can hope to try in their lifetimes unless they devote their lives to nothing else.
Some might say, too, that many of the distributions are so minor and so personal that few people will notice their loss. Their loss might could even be a benefit, because fewer distributions means more contributors to the surviving one.
Outsiders, too, are likely to find developing for Linux easier if they have fewer distributions to design for. However, despite the disappearance of some promising distributions like Fuduntu, few of those that have disappeared could be considered major. As minor distros have disappeared in the last three years, the top ten for pageviews on Distrowatch has changed little, except to rise or fall a position or two.
Still, even if most of the losses have been minor, the trend is disturbing. Linux advocates have always prized diversity, and the loss of even a little diversity seems cause for concern, even if it proves beneficial in some ways. If nothing else, the trend suggests that Linux is straying from its roots, and perhaps becoming a little less adventurous and more stodgy.
What, if anything, could or should be done about the trend is uncertain. Still, the trend is worth keeping an eye on — just in case.
Also see: Best Linux Desktop: Top 10 Candidates
100 Open Source Replacements for Expensive Applications
- Huawei’s AI Update: Things Are Moving Faster Than We Think
FEATURE | By Rob Enderle,
December 04, 2020 - Keeping Machine Learning Algorithms Honest in the ‘Ethics-First’ Era
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By Guest Author,
November 18, 2020 - Key Trends in Chatbots and RPA
FEATURE | By Guest Author,
November 10, 2020 - Top 10 AIOps Companies
FEATURE | By Samuel Greengard,
November 05, 2020 - What is Text Analysis?
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By Guest Author,
November 02, 2020 - How Intel’s Work With Autonomous Cars Could Redefine General Purpose AI
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By Rob Enderle,
October 29, 2020 - Dell Technologies World: Weaving Together Human And Machine Interaction For AI And Robotics
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By Rob Enderle,
October 23, 2020 - The Super Moderator, or How IBM Project Debater Could Save Social Media
FEATURE | By Rob Enderle,
October 16, 2020 - Top 10 Chatbot Platforms
FEATURE | By Cynthia Harvey,
October 07, 2020 - Finding a Career Path in AI
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By Guest Author,
October 05, 2020 - CIOs Discuss the Promise of AI and Data Science
FEATURE | By Guest Author,
September 25, 2020 - Microsoft Is Building An AI Product That Could Predict The Future
FEATURE | By Rob Enderle,
September 25, 2020 - Top 10 Machine Learning Companies 2020
FEATURE | By Cynthia Harvey,
September 22, 2020 - NVIDIA and ARM: Massively Changing The AI Landscape
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By Rob Enderle,
September 18, 2020 - Continuous Intelligence: Expert Discussion [Video and Podcast]
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By James Maguire,
September 14, 2020 - Artificial Intelligence: Governance and Ethics [Video]
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By James Maguire,
September 13, 2020 - IBM Watson At The US Open: Showcasing The Power Of A Mature Enterprise-Class AI
FEATURE | By Rob Enderle,
September 11, 2020 - Artificial Intelligence: Perception vs. Reality
FEATURE | By James Maguire,
September 09, 2020 - Anticipating The Coming Wave Of AI Enhanced PCs
FEATURE | By Rob Enderle,
September 05, 2020 - The Critical Nature Of IBM’s NLP (Natural Language Processing) Effort
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | By Rob Enderle,
August 14, 2020