2025 Oscars: Best Actor Predictions for Next Academy Awards (original) (raw)

Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions .

The State of the Race

Similar to two years ago, the current race for the Best Actor Oscar has four names that seem to have their nominations locked in, with that fifth nomination slot up for grabs.

The Venice premiere of Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer” confirmed suspicions that Daniel Craig could be a major contender this year, but the real surprise from that same festival was just how much Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” and by virtue its lead Adrien Brody, really has a shot at becoming an Academy Awards frontrunner across categories.

Both aforementioned films are A24 releases, as is “Sing Sing” starring Colman Domingo, which has been in the awards conversation since its premiere at TIFF last year, meaning the studio is already juggling a few campaigns. It will be up to audiences to uplift contenders that are on the margins, like Sebastian Stan in “A Different Man,” or Andrew Garfield in “We Live In Time,” or even Hugh Grant in “Heretic,” as those are all A24 films as well, and that company is not working with the same budget as a major studio. It will really have to pick its favorite children in this race specifically.

With the level of buzz now surrounding “The Brutalist,” many predict that all efforts will go behind Brody, though the risk is that his turn as a Jewish architect who emigrates to the U.S. after WWII is in the same wheelhouse as his role in “The Pianist,” which made him the youngest ever Best Actor winner.

But will Brody be able to receive a second Oscar up against someone like “Conclave” star Ralph Fiennes, who has been in three Best Picture winners, but has yet to win his first Oscar. The Focus Features release about a dramatic papal election is seen as the most commercial film among the wave of fall festival premieres, meaning it will definitely be a subject of conversation and debate among voters, meaning the British actor’s performance will be top of mind as voters cast their ballots. “Conclave” being a strong ensemble piece as well makes it more attractive to the Actors Branch that would determine whether or not Fiennes becomes a nominee.

For that final slot, the consensus is that one of the holiday releases like “Gladiator II” or “A Complete Unknown” will bring a young, former nominee like Paul Mescal or Timothée Chalamet, respectively, into the mix. But until more people see those films, there are contenders like André Holland, who may be an underdog with “Exhibiting Forgiveness” being released by smaller specialty label Roadside Attractions, but the LA premiere of the film had a turnout that included Oprah Winfrey, Leonardo DiCaprio, Tobey Maguire, Ava DuVernay, and more A-listers. Holland could be an example of a well respected star with a performance all his peers get behind, even if the film does not see major box office success.

Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, below. No actor will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen the film.

Frontrunners:
Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
Daniel Craig (“Queer”)
Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”)
André Holland (“Exhibiting Forgiveness”)

Contenders: Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”)Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”)
Nicholas Hoult (“Juror #2)
Jharrel Jerome (“Unstoppable”)
Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”)
Glen Powell (“Hit Man”)
Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”)
Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)
John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”)
Missagh Zareh (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”)

Long Shots: Kingsley Ben-Adir (“Bob Marley: One Love”)
Andrew Garfield (“We Live in Time”)
Richard Gere (“Oh, Canada”)
Hugh Grant (“Heretic”)
Ethan Herisse (“Nickel Boys”)
Keith Kupferer (“Ghostlight”)
Michael Pitt (“Day of the Fight”)
Jesse Plemons (“Kinds of Kindness”)
Jason Schwartzman (“Between the Temples”)
Brandon Wilson (“Nickel Boys”)