Poll predicts Brexit Party to win seats in Lincs in General Election (original) (raw)

Conservative and Labour MPs could be turfed out across Lincolnshire at the next General Election, according to a polling expert.

Electoral Calculus, the election prediction website run by Martin Baxter, is tipping Nigel Farage's Brexit Party to win big in the Boston and Skegness, the South Holland and The Deepings constituencies and the Louth and Horncastle seat.

And that would be bad news indeed for Matt Warman, John Hayes and Victoria Atkins respectively.

The website also predicts a knife edge result for Lincoln, Gainsborough, Bassetlaw, and Grantham and Stamford - with MPs holding on with wafer thin majorities.

Nigel Farage was a prominent campaigner in the lead up to the Brexit vote

Many political commentators are predicting a snap election after the result of the Conservative leadership race, with either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt attempting to gain a majority in parliament to break the Brexit deadlock.

The outcome of the contest will be revealed on Tuesday, July 23.

In Boston and Skegness, Mr Baxter is tipping the party to overturn a Conservative majority of 16,572 to bring the Brexit Party to power, with a predicted 38.9 per cent of voters giving the party the thumbs up.

Incumbent MP Matt Warman comes a distant second on 27.3 per cent in the projection.

Conservative Sir John Hayes is also predicted to lose his 24,897 majority, and his seat, in the South Holland and The Deepings Constituency, with the Brexit Party polling 36.7 per cent compared to Sir John on 31.4 per cent.

And Victoria Atkins in Louth and Horncastle would also be off, if the polls are right, with the election website predicting the Brexit Party would win 34.2 per cent of the vote versus 29.4 per cent for the Tories.

MP Matt Warman's seat looks vulnerable at the next election. (Image: Lincolnshire Echo)

Polling however shows that the Tories could narrowly hold off the Brexit Party challenge in Grantham.

The party is polling 30.4 per cent compared to the Brexit Party on 30.1 per cent.

Nick Boles, the current MP, has left the party - and has said he won't stand at the next election after a row with his local constituency over his support for Remain.

Labour's John Mann - a vocal Leave backer - would also keep hold in Bassetlaw polling 30.1 per cent compared to the Brexit Party on 29.1 per cent, the poll suggests.

And Labour's Karen Lee could hold on in Lincoln, polling 28.7 per cent compared to the Brexit Party on 24.7 per cent and the Tories on 22.2 per cent.

Bassetlaw MP John Mann (Image: PA)

The Brexit Party's polling surge has been indicated in last month's Peterborough by-election where the where the party's candidate Mike Greene narrowly lost out Labour's Lisa Forbes.

It polled 9,801 votes, 28.89 per cent, compared to her 10,484 votes, 30.91 per cent - months after being created, and in a constituency with a previously large Labour majority.

The Brexit Party also won the most seats of any party at the European elections in May.

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Annunziata Rees-Mogg, Jonathan Bullock and Matthew Patten were the three out of five MEPs elected for the East Midlands as the Brexit party stormed to a resounding majority with 452,321 votes.

The Conservatives now have no MEPs in the region, losing the seat they won in 2014.

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