Michigan's Thumb summer forecast predicts near-normal weather (original) (raw)

The NWS of Detroit/Pontiac anticipates a normal summer in Michigan's Thumb this year, in terms of precipitation and weather.

NWS Detroit/Pontiac

It’s summertime in Michigan, and forecasters have released an outlook for what to expect over the next three months.

This year, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an average summer in terms of temperature for Michigan, with seasonal precipitation also expected to be near average.

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The National Weather Service office in Detroit/Pontiac released its summer forecast for the eastern half of Michigan.

“In the official summer outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, Southeast Michigan has equal chances for above, near, or below normal temperatures and precipitation,” the Detroit NWS said. “This outlook accounts for many factors including ENSO, dynamical guidance such as the NMME, statistical tools, soil moisture conditions, and trends in recent years.”

NWS Detroit meteorologist Trent Frey said the Thumb has equal chances for above-normal, below-normal or near-normal conditions this summer.

“The Great Lakes and Midwest are in an area of equal chances,” he said. “That doesn’t tell us much. There’s not a strong signal for an overly warm or cool summer. There’s a lot of competing factors. This is similar for precipitation. That carries less certainty than temperature. There’s not a lot of dominant factors for summer precipitation.”

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NWS Detroit noted that after a weak La Niña last winter, the tropical Pacific is now in ENSO-neutral conditions. This will be brief as a transition to El Niño is expected by this summer. Nearly 100% probability exists for El Niño by this fall and winter, and forecast data indicate a 50-60% probability for a strong or very strong El Niño.

“ENSO teleconnections during the summer are less pronounced than during the winter, meaning local summer conditions are less correlated with ENSO status,” the Detroit NWS said. “However, El Niño composites generally favor cooler than normal conditions for the Great Lakes during the summer.”

“We see an El Niño watch, and it can develop into an El Niño this summer,” Frey added. “At any point, that could be declared. But that’s expected to go through the summer into next winter. We don’t have a strong jet stream. That’s what the El Niño and La Niña affect. Once we get into the winter, and especially late winter, that’s when the most notable effects manifest. That leans us towards warmer and drier conditions for the winter months.”

According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, the average temperature in Michigan for the summer of 2025 was 68 degrees, while the average high temperature for that three-month period was 79.2 degrees. This was 1.5 degrees above the average climate for summer in the state. This ranked as the 37th warmest summer on record for the state and the warmest summer since 2021.

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In Bad Axe, normal highs ranged from 72 at the start of June 2025 to 80 at the end of the month. Lows ranged from 51 to 58. The highest temperature was 95 on June 24, while the lowest was 39 on June 2. In July, normal highs ranged from 80 to 81 degrees, while normal lows ranged from 59 to 60. The highest temperature was 94 on July 25, while the lowest was 49 on four nights. In August, normal highs ranged from 80 early in the month to 77 at the end. Lows ranged from 60 to 56. The highest temperature was 93 on Aug. 11, while the lowest was 43 on Aug. 30 and 31.

Frey said to expect the same normal temperatures with a margin of error of five degrees.

“There’s not much signal to tell if it will deviate much from those totals,” he said.

Precipitation last summer was higher than average for the state, with a state average of 10.30 inches of rain over that three-month period. This ranked 0.69 inches of rain above the climate average for the state.

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In Bad Axe, 10.54 inches of rain fell over the course of June, July and August. Frey said to expect similar totals this year.

“The trends we’ve seen in the past 10-15 years are wetter and warmer,” he said. “Not just across Michigan, but across the Midwest. That’s something to keep in mind. Summers stand to be wetter and warmer, different from 15-30 years ago. We’re working on a different baseline than we did years ago. That’s something to keep in mind for weather forecasts in the future.”

June 9, 2026

Tom Greene is the sports reporter for the Huron Daily Tribune.

Brendan Sanders is a 2022 graduate of Ferris State University with a bachelor's degree in sports communication and minors in journalism and marketing/sales. At Ferris State he was the editor in chief for the Ferris State Torch newspaper and is a member of Ferris State University's Sports Leadership Institute Advisory Board. A Lowell High School graduate, Brendan is an avid fan of various sports, including football, basketball and any form of motorsport.