Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host-parasite systems - PubMed (original) (raw)

Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host-parasite systems

S J Kutz et al. Proc Biol Sci. 2005.

Abstract

Global climate change is altering the ecology of infectious agents and driving the emergence of disease in people, domestic animals, and wildlife. We present a novel, empirically based, predictive model for the impact of climate warming on development rates and availability of an important parasitic nematode of muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic, a region that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Using this model, we show that warming in the Arctic may have already radically altered the transmission dynamics of this parasite, escalating infection pressure for muskoxen, and that this trend is expected to continue. This work establishes a foundation for understanding responses to climate change of other host-parasite systems, in the Arctic and globally.

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Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1

Annual accumulated degree days predicted near Kugluktuk, Nunavut for 1978–2003. Note that development to L3 (as indicated by accumulating at least 167DD) would be predicted in only 5 years from 1978 to 1990, but in 12 years from 1991 to 2003.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Predicted patterns of accumulated degree days with 0–8 °C increases above the 1978–2000 average, and assuming slugs are infected with L1 on 29th May. Note that as little as 1 °C increase results in accumulation of sufficient degree days for development to L3 in single summer.

Figure 3

Figure 3

Predicted L3 availability (L3 index) in a single season under climate warming scenarios of 1, 2, 4 and 8 °C for assumptions (a) L3 are available in slugs or as emerged L3 and have 100% survival to October and (b) L3 do not emerge and die when slugs die.

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