July 2016 Global Climate Report (original) (raw)

Introduction

Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST.v4) anomaly analysis as described in Huang et al. (2016). Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page. The percentile map on the right provides additional information by placing the temperature anomaly observed for a specific place and time period into historical perspective, showing how the most current month, season or year compares with the past.

Temperatures

In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure—depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the July 2016 map—is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.

July

For the 15th consecutive month, the global land and ocean temperature departure from average was the highest since global temperature records began in 1880. This marks the longest such streak in NOAA's 137 years of record keeping. The July 2016 combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average, besting the previous July record set in 2015 by 0.06°C (0.11°F). July 2016 marks the 40th consecutive July with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. The last time July global land and ocean temperatures were below average was in 1976 (-0.09°C / -0.16°F). Although continuing a record streak, July 2016 was also the lowest monthly temperature departure from average since August 2015 and tied with August 2015 as the 15th highest monthly temperature departure among all months (1,639) on record. However, since July is climatologically the globe's warmest month of the year, the July 2016 global land and ocean temperature (16.67°C / 62.01°F) was the highest temperature for any month on record, surpassing the previous record set in July 2015. July 2016 was the 379th consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. The last month with temperatures below the 20th century average was December 1984 (-0.09°C / -0.16°F).

Warmer- to much-warmer-than-average temperatures were observed across much of all land masses, with record warmth observed mainly across parts of Indonesia, southern Asia, and New Zealand, according to the temperature percentiles map. Near- to cooler-than-average conditions were limited to the northwestern and north-central contiguous U.S., eastern Canada, southern South America, southwestern Australia, north central Russia, Kazakhstan, and India. According to NCEI's Global Regional Analysis, all six continents had at least a top eight warm July, with Asia observing its second highest July average temperature, behind 2010.

Averaged as a whole, the global temperature across land surfaces for July 2016 was 1.10°C (1.98°F) above the 20th century average—tying with 1998 as the highest July temperature in the 1880–2016 record. July 2016 marks the 24th consecutive July with temperatures at least nominally above average. The last time global land surface temperatures were below average in July was in 1992 (-0.15°C / -0.27°F). This was also the lowest monthly land temperature departure from average since August 2015.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

• Warmer-than-average nighttime (minimum) temperatures continued to plague Australia during July 2016, with daytime (maximum) temperatures varying across the region. Overall, the national average mean temperature was 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 1961–1990 average, the ninth highest July mean temperature since national temperature records began in 1910. The nationally-averaged minimum temperature was 1.59°C (2.86°F) above average—the fifth highest on record. Regionally, Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, and Western Australia each had a top 10 warm July minimum temperature.
• Unusually warm conditions engulfed Hong Kong during July 2016. This resulted in a monthly mean temperature of 29.8°C (85.6°F), which is 1.0°C (1.8°F) above average—tying with 2014 as the highest July temperature since records began. July 9, 2016 recorded a daily maximum temperature of 35.6°C (96.1°F), the second highest daily temperature for July on record.
• July 2016 temperatures were warmer-than-average in New Zealand, with the most notable temperature departures (1.20°C / 2.16°F or greater) observed across the south. New Zealand's mean temperature during July 2016 was 8.6°C (47.5°F), which is 0.7°C (1.3°F) above the 1981–2010 average. This was the tenth highest July temperature since national records began in 1909.
• The Kingdom of Bahrain recorded a mean temperature of 36.0°C (96.8°F) for July 2016, which is 2.1°C (3.8°F) above average—tying with 2012 as the highest July temperature since national records began in 1902. Daytime (maximum) and nighttime (minimum) temperatures were also much warmer than average, observing the highest minimum temperature (33.2°C / 91.8°F) for July on record and the eighth highest maximum temperature (39.8°C / 103.6°F) since 1946.
• Much-warmer-than-average conditions were observed across the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf. According to records of the U.S. Air Force 14th Weather Squadron, several locations across Kuwait observed temperatures higher than 45.0°C (113.0°F) during July 2016. The highest maximum temperature during July 2016 was recorded in Mitribah, Kuwait when temperatures soared to 52.5°C (126.5°F) on July 22. According to the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), if this value is approved by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), it would be the highest temperature ever recorded in Asia and in the Eastern Hemisphere.
• Spain's nationally-averaged mean temperature for July 2016 was 25.5°C (77.9°F), which is 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the 1981–2010 average—tying with 1994 as the fourth highest July temperature since 1961. Spain's highest July temperature was recorded in 2015 at 26.5°C (79.7°F).

The worldwide ocean surface temperature during July 2016 was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the 20th century average, the highest global ocean temperature for July in the 137-year record. This value surpassed the previous record set in 2015 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). July 2016 marks the 40th consecutive July with global ocean temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. July 2016 tied with August 2015 as the eighth highest departure from average among all 1,639 months in the record. The 13 highest monthly global ocean temperature departures have all occurred in the past 13 months.

According to the percentiles map, much-warmer-than-average temperatures engulfed most of the world's oceans during July 2016, with record high sea surface temperatures across parts of the western, southwestern, central and southeastern Pacific Ocean, northeastern Indian Ocean, and the southern and western Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, cooler-than-average conditions were limited to parts of the southern oceans. The only ocean area with record cold temperatures was east of the Drake Passage off the southern tip of South America.

ENSO neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) prevailed across the tropical Pacific Ocean during July 2016. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is slightly favored to develop during August–October 2016, with about 55–60 percent chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016/17. This forecast focuses on the ocean surface temperatures between 5°N and 5°S latitude and 170°W to 120°W longitude, called the Niño 3.4 region.

July Ranks and Records

The most current data can be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Year-to-date (January–July)

The January–July 2016 global land and ocean temperature was the warmest such period on record at 1.03°C (1.85°F) above the 20th century average, besting the previous record set in 2015 by 0.19°C (0.34°F).

The first seven months of 2016 were characterized by warmer to much-warmer-than-average conditions across most of the world's land and ocean surfaces. Record warmth was widespread across Alaska, western Canada, southern Mexico, Central America, northern South America, central and southwestern Africa, Indonesia, northern and eastern Australia, the Indian Ocean, and across parts of north-central Russia, western Asia, the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the southwestern Pacific Ocean, and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Near to much cooler-than-average temperatures were observed across the northwestern Pacific Ocean, northern Atlantic Ocean (south of Greenland), and parts of the southern oceans. The only area with record cold temperatures was east of the Drake Passage off the southern tip of South America.

According to NCEI's Global Regional analysis, all six continents had at least a top three warm January–July period, with North America, Asia, and Oceania having a record high January–July average temperature since continental records began in 1910. Averaged globally, the January–July 2016 global land surface temperature was 1.66°C (2.99°F) above the 20th century average—the highest temperature departure from average for January–July in the 1880–2016 record. This value surpassed the previous record set in 2015 by 0.34°C (0.61°F). The global oceans temperature during January–July 2016 was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above average, also the highest temperature departure for January–July in the 137-year record, exceeding the previous record set in 2015 by 0.12°C (0.22°F).

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

• The January–July 2016 average temperature for New Zealand was 1.3°C (2.3°F) above the 1981–2010 average—the warmest such period since national records began in 1909.

January–July Ranks and Records

The most current data can be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Precipitation

July

The maps below represent precipitation percent of normal (left, using a base period of 1961–1990) and precipitation percentiles (right, using the period of record) based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations. As is typical, precipitation anomalies during July 2016 varied significantly around the world. July precipitation was notably drier than normal across parts of the western, southern and southeastern contiguous U.S., northern, central and southern South America, western and southern Europe, and across northern and central Asia. Wetter-than-normal precipitation was observed across the midwestern U.S., central Argentina, northern and central Europe, much of Australia, and across central and southern Asia.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

• Much-above-average rainfall was observed across much of northern, western, and southeastern Australia. Australia as a whole had rainfall that was 61% above avearge, making this the 14th wettest July in the 117-year record. Regionally, Queensland and Tasmania had their wettest July since 1984 and 1975, respectively, and the seventh wettest July on record. Victoria had its wettest July since 1986 and the tenth wettest July on record.
• Precipitation across Argentina was mixed. According to NCEI's percent of normal precipitation map, much of northern and southern Argentina had below-average precipitation. Meanwhile, parts of central Argentina had above average precipitation, with some locations receiving over twice their monthly normal precipitation. According to Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, the following locations set new precipitation records for the month: Observatorio Buenos Aires (182.6 mm / 7.19 inches), La Plata Aero (198 mm / 7.80 inches), and Punta India (220 mm / 8.66 inches).

References

• Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.
• Huang, B., V.F. Banzon, E. Freeman, J. Lawrimore, W. Liu, T.C. Peterson, T.M. Smith, P.W. Thorne, S.D. Woodruff, and H-M. Zhang, 2016: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons. J. Climate, 28, 911-930.