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ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM AST FRI OCT 29 1999

...CORRECTION FOR SPEED OF MOTION...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL CROSS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS WILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

GUINEY

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