Ukraine Invasion Threatens Global Wheat Supply (original) (raw)
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Russia and Ukraine together supply more than a quarter of the world’s wheat, and coming disruptions could fuel higher food prices and social unrest.
Farmers harvested wheat near Tbilisskaya, Russia, last year.Credit...Vitaly Timkiv/Associated Press
- Published Feb. 24, 2022Updated March 23, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is threatening to cut off some international shipments of wheat, spurring shortages and pushing the price of a vital crop higher when supply chain disruptions have already sent food costs spiraling.
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 5.43 percent on Thursday, outstripping gains by other commodities like corn and soybean oil.
Russia and Ukraine together export more than a quarter of the world’s wheat, feeding billions of people in the form of bread, pasta and packaged foods. The countries are also key suppliers of barley, sunflower seed oil and corn, among other products.
In recent days, the price of agricultural commodities has fluctuated sharply as tensions around the Black Sea threaten to disrupt global shipments of wheat, corn and vegetable oil. Disruptions and rising prices for those commodities — as well as the cost of fuel and fertilizer, important inputs for farmers — could further buffet global food markets and threaten social stability, analysts said.
Food prices have already risen globally as a result of pandemic-related shipping disruptions, rising costs for farmers and adverse weather, and wheat is no exception. Between April 2020 and December 2021, the price of wheat increased 80 percent, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. That was on a par with rising costs for corn and higher than increases for soybeans or coffee.
David Laborde, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said the crisis would “likely have an immediate impact on the global wheat market stability.” But the real test for the global food supply would be in four months, he said, when the next wheat harvest would begin.
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