Sam Bennett and the Calgary Flames: What’s gone wrong? (original) (raw)

After three games in four nights that saw the Flames snap a losing skid and get back to playing some solid hockey — posting a 2-1 record — there is a different storyline that’s overshadowing the mild upswing.

Sam Bennett wants out of Calgary.

His agent, Darren Ferris, confirmed as much to _The Athletic_’s Pierre LeBrun, after Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported Saturday that Bennett would like a change of scenery.

This isn’t how things were supposed to go after the Flames selected Bennett fourth overall in 2014 – the highest the Flames have ever selected in the NHL Draft.

Bennett’s 18 goals and 36 points in his rookie season kept expectations high, but has ultimately remained his best offensive season over his first five years in the NHL.

Which begs the question: Why haven’t things worked between the two sides?

It’s fair to assume that deployment and production have been key issues here. Surely Bennett would like more opportunities in the Calgary top-six. But in the organization’s eyes, he likely hasn’t shown enough reason to be given those opportunities.

So where do you go from here?

It’s a difficult question to answer, as it directly ties back to the ultimate question that is, what is Sam Bennett’s potential?

All of this will weigh heavily in determining his potential future with the Flames, or his trade value. Let’s dive into some of what’s gone wrong, and what can change.

It’s hard to know what Bennett’s ceiling is — what he can become — at the NHL level, as he simply hasn’t shown the Flames what they thought he could be when they selected him so high.

Since his rookie year in 2015-16, Bennett has scored 63 goals and 129 points in 372 games.

Thirteen players from his 2014 draft class have outscored him by a fairly large margin, including the Nos. 1 through 3 picks Aaron Ekblad (217 points), Sam Reinhart (261 points) and Leon Draisaitl (442 points), who tops the list.

Simply put, the offensive production just hasn’t matched the pedigree that typically comes with being a top-five NHL pick.

Now, part of that comes down to his deployment in Calgary. But even on a per minute basis, Bennett’s career average points-per-60 at five-on-five is 1.4, a third line rate.

Bennett has had his opportunities in the past, but there are certainly questions around whether the Flames have given him a true chance as a top-six forward. And whether he’s deserved one.

Since becoming a full-time NHLer, Bennett has averaged around 14 minutes of ice time per game, rotating from a third-line winger to a fourth-line centre. Bennett did play in the top-six during his rookie year, but that’s the last time he was consistently placed in that type of role.

That was Bennett’s best season of his career and that should come as no surprise – it’s easier to produce when you’re playing with other skilled players, rather than in a rotating cast of bottom-six talent. That’s been plain to see over the past few seasons in the brief instances he’s been given such a chance. He’s spent some time over the last few seasons with Matthew Tkachuk, where he’s shown flashes of better play at five-on-five during the regular season.

Since 2017-18, Bennett has played 313 minutes at five-on-five with Tkachuk. In that time he has scored 1.91 points per 60 minutes — the most Bennett has scored with any forward he’s played at least 90 minutes with. Most of those points are primary assists, which would indicate Bennett is better at making plays and deferring scoring opportunities to his linemates than driving offence on his own line.

So there is certainly some correlation between Bennett playing well when given an opportunity with offensive drivers.

That being said, with the depth of the Flames being what it is, it’s difficult to find a place for Bennett in either of his natural positions. Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau are ahead of him on the left-wing depth chart. While Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, and Mikael Backlund make a difficult trio to top through the middle.

But the issues with Bennett’s deployment go beyond where he is playing and extend to who he’s lining up with. And looking at his 2019-20 deployment, Bennett’s linemates on a nightly basis were anyone’s guess last year.

Using the game-by-game teammate chart from Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz, we can see that in the first half of the season before Bennett got injured, he almost always played with Derek Ryan, with a rotating cast of wingers, which often included Milan Lucic. After his injury, we can see that Bennett did not have consistent linemates throughout the back half of the regular season.

The Flames view Bennett’s versatility, and his ability to play up and down the lineup as an asset to their roster. But at the same time, it’s difficult to find your footing and build chemistry under those circumstances.

So, with all that in mind, you can understand why Bennett and his camp believe he could use a change of scenery with a team that has more consistent opportunities.

But this is the NHL, and you still need to earn those opportunities.

And there are some frustrating aspects to Bennett’s game that can’t be ignored.

First and foremost, he’s known for taking bad penalties, and frequently taking them in the offensive zone. Over the last two seasons only four forwards have taken more penalties-per-60 than Bennett: Antoine Roussel, Evander Kane, Nick Ritchie and Miles Wood. He doesn’t draw enough penalties himself to compensate for that and ranks in the bottom 30 in penalty differential as a result.

Bennett consistently puts the Flames at a disadvantage on the ice by giving opponents an advantage. It’s frustrating.

Perhaps even more so is the potential Bennett shows every so often, like during his rookie season, his solid play with Tkachuk, and especially in the playoffs.

Over the last few years, Bennett seems to elevate his play when the game gets harder, faster, and the whistles are put away.

Last season, Bennett nearly matched his regular-season totals (eight goals and 12 points in 52 games) with five goals and eight points in 10 playoff games. Overall, Bennett has scored 11 goals and 19 points in 30 postseason contests. When every season’s focus is on winning a Stanley Cup, that is incredibly valuable.

However, that doesn’t seem to carry over into the regular season. This season, for example, he has registered only one assist through eight games. According to _The Athletic_‘s Dom Luszczyszyn’s Game Score metric, Bennett is currently valued at 0.0 wins, which is right on the cusp of being a replacement level forward.

While there’s always a chance Bennett could break out, it’s a very small one based on his best statistical comparables. Among past players aged 23-to-25 closest to Bennett’s statistical profile, there are 87 players that are strong matches, and only 12 went on to become top-six forwards. Despite his pedigree, Bennett’s chances of becoming something more look slim. Players like Lars Eller, Phillip Danault, and Mike Hoffman offer some hope that Bennett can turn the corner and provide some tangible value for the Flames, but it’s an unlikely path.

While you can understand why Bennett may think the grass is greener elsewhere, you can also understand why the Flames want to see more out of him.

All that brings us back to the question of what to do next.

To start, the Flames could try putting Bennett in a position to succeed. Since Day 1 of training camp, Calgary has been looking for the best players to fit with the duos of Tkachuk-Lindholm, and Gaudreau-Monahan.

So far, Josh Leivo, Dominik Simon, Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane have all been given top-six tryouts through the first month of the season, albeit on the right-wing.

It’s not his natural position, but why not give Bennett a shot?

We’ve seen that Bennett can play well with Tkachuk. However, Dube has looked very solid with Tkachuk and Lindholm, and I’m not sure how keen the Flames would be to break up that group long-term.

Bennett has struggled in the past playing with Gaudreau and Monahan — he’s only scored 0.75 points per 60 with Gaudreau at five-on-five, and 1.11 with Monahan — but it could be worth a try this season.

With the emergence of Tkachuk and Lindholm as a No. 1 option, the Flames have been able to deploy Gaudreau and Monahan in a way that suits their playing style. Perhaps this new deployment could also suit Bennett, and be the final piece on that line the Flames have been looking for, which appears to be a smart, strong forechecker to pair with the skilled, play-driving duo.

Bennett was one of the better forecheckers on the Flames last season in terms of recovering the puck for his line. And interestingly enough, in Monday’s 4-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets, Bennett did spend some time with Gaudreau and Monahan during the third period.

Giving Bennett better linemates could lead to him being a more impactful player, which could either make him want to stay in Calgary or boost his trade value.

That can’t be understated as, trying to trade Bennett under the current circumstances isn’t going to be ideal. Especially considering the Flames say they were blindsided by Friedman’s report on Saturday.

In going public with the request, Bennett’s agent appears to be trying to force something to happen. But, GM Brad Treliving isn’t going to make a trade for the sake of it — he’s said that much in the past about demands to shake up the team’s core. And he certainly won’t be trading a former fourth-overall pick for nothing.

Bennett has one year remaining on his $2.55 million contract, and the Flames will have control over him as a restricted free agent one more year after it expires. His cap hit isn’t too high, which is an asset in the current flat-cap world.

Whatever the Flames are potentially able to get in return will be based on pedigree, and the playoff version of Bennett. While potential suitors may be looking for a bargain.

Because of this, expect Treliving and the Flames to proceed cautiously, and take control of the when and how this ends.

Statistics and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz, and Corey Sznajder.

(Photo: David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)