A ‘comfortable’ risk: Why the Blues gave Colton Parayko an 8-year extension despite long-term injury concerns (original) (raw)
It wasn’t long ago that Blues defenseman Colton Parayko seemed likely to earn $9 million or more per season on his next contract. But then the pandemic put a limit on salaries and a serious back injury put Parayko’s future in question.
Well, salaries have come around. This summer, Columbus’ Zach Werenski, Chicago’s Seth Jones, Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse, New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton and Colorado’s Cale Makar all signed contracts with annual average values (AAV) of at least $9 million.
The question is, “Has Parayko’s back come around?” The Blues shut down the 28-year-old defenseman from Feb. 15 until April 5 last season to rest what sources said was a bulging disk. He came back and finished the season strong, but there are no guarantees.
On Wednesday, both sides decided to take a risk, though the Blues are taking the bigger one. With a year left on Parayko’s current contract, the player and team agreed to terms on an eight-year, 52millionextension(52 million extension (52millionextension(6.5 million AAV), keeping him under contract through the 2029-30 season.
It’s simple: if the 6-foot-6, 230-pound defenseman stays healthy, aside from the fact the new deal will take him to age 36, it looks like a bargain. If he eventually needs career-threatening back surgery, then the Blues just locked themselves into a commitment they won’t be able to walk away from for a long time.
“NHL players get injured. That’s just the reality of a physical sport,” Blues general manager Doug Armstrong told The Athletic on Wednesday. “We talked to our (medical staff), and we were comfortable to take this risk. I think there’s a risk with any player you sign at this age. The NHL lifestyle, on ice, it’s a physical game, it’s a fast game, and it doesn’t look like it’s slowing down.
“But for us, I know how Colton takes care of himself. I know his nutritional beliefs, his workout beliefs. He’ll do whatever he can do to give himself the best opportunity, and that’s really all you can ask for and hope for good luck.”
Top defenseman contracts this offseason
| Player | Team | Age | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|
 Zach Werenski |
Blue Jackets | 24 | $9,583,333 |
 Seth Jones |
Blackhawks | 26 | $9,500,000 |
 Darnell Nurse |
Oilers | 26 | $9,250,000 |
 Dougie Hamilton |
Devils | 28 | $9,000,000 |
 Cale Makar |
Avalanche | 22 | $9,000,000 |
 Miro Heiskanen |
Stars | 22 | $8,450,000 |
 Colton Parayko |
Blues | 28 | $6,500,000 |
The GM did acknowledge Wednesday that Parayko had “a little procedure” at the end of the season but provided no specifics.
“Like everybody does — little things (got) taken care of,” Armstrong said. “I said, ‘How are you doing?’ He said, ‘Great!’ It’s not something that we do daily: ‘How are you doing today?’ But he looks and feels great. That’s the main thing.”
For a player with a huge health question, Parayko has now limited his risk somewhat — in that, if he never plays another game, he just guaranteed himself 52million.However,hecouldhaveusedthefinalyearonhiscontracttoprovehe’sOKandtoputhimselfinpositionforanAAVof52 million. However, he could have used the final year on his contract to prove he’s OK and to put himself in position for an AAV of 52million.However,hecouldhaveusedthefinalyearonhiscontracttoprovehe’sOKandtoputhimselfinpositionforanAAVof8 million or more in unrestricted free agency. If he had been able to sign at 8million,itwouldbeadifferenceof8 million, it would be a difference of 8million,itwouldbeadifferenceof12 million over the course of eight years.
Parayko was unavailable to comment Wednesday and hasn’t actually signed the deal yet, but he is scheduled to speak with the media Thursday. The team’s Twitter account had a comment from him Wednesday in which he said, “I can’t wait to wear the Blue Note for another nine years. St. Louis has been my home now for six seasons, and this is where I want to be. Winning here in 2019 was special, and I want the chance to stay here and do that again.”
We’ll find out more about Parayko’s mindset later, but when you hear how fast the contract negotiations developed, it sounds like he was aware he couldn’t pass up the long-term offer, considering the concerns around his back.
“It was very, very quick,” Armstrong said. “He was willing to give a little bit on the AAV, and we were willing to give a little bit on the number of years to make it something that worked for both sides. Both sides, once the conversation started, there was a genuine feeling that both sides wanted the same thing quickly, and it came together.”
In addition to avoiding the possibility of paying Parayko more money if he has a good season, the Blues seemed to be making sure they wouldn’t be losing another top defenseman in free agency, as they did with Alex Pietrangelo last offseason.
The Blues and Pietrangelo engaged in contract talks a year in advance, after winning the Stanley Cup in 2019. But they couldn’t come to an agreement, and eventually he signed a seven-year, $61.6 million contract in Vegas.
“I think it’s very consistent when you have core players entering free agency,” Armstrong said. “You start the talks to see if you can get something done early, and sometimes you can, and sometimes you can’t. I’ve been on both sides of that ledger, with Colton and (Brayden) Schenn, and (with) players that we couldn’t get it done with.
“If the other general managers around the league think the way I do of Colton, he would’ve been an attractive option (in free agency), and we were hoping not to get there. He was happy with his role and the direction of our team, so it worked out.”
Going into the 2020-21 season, Armstrong called Parayko the “alpha male” of the defense. That didn’t turn out to be the case, mainly because of the injury.
Parayko’s ice time (21:20) wound up being 1:40 less per game than in 2019-20. He had just two goals and 12 points in his 32 games, and at five-on-five, he was on the ice for more goals against (25) than goals for (20).
But when Parayko is healthy, Armstrong still believes he can be the player he envisioned taking over the role from Pietrangelo.
“He’s got great power, he’s got great range and he’s a dynamic skater,” Armstrong said. “He’s a minute-munching player. We think he’s going to be a big part of our team in order to make a commitment like this.”
Of the contracts on the Blues’ books, Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly have the highest AAVs at 7.5million.The7.5 million. The 7.5million.The6.5 AAV for Parayko matches the next-highest AAV, which is shared by Justin Faulk, Torey Krug and Schenn.
With Parayko’s new deal, the Blues now have five players under contract for at least the next six seasons, all making at least $6 million per season: Parayko, Faulk, Krug, Schenn and Jordan Binnington.
“Our belief has been quantity and quality,” Armstrong said. “When you’re dealing with a (salary cap), you have to make decisions, and we’ve decided to go this way. We have a lot of players making $6 (million). It’s just an allocation of resources.”
The Blues aren’t the only club using the extended term to lower the AAV and keep as many good players in the fold as possible, even if that philosophy may wreak havoc on those teams’ caps in the future.
During the shortened 2020 offseason, which was marked by the uncertainty of the pandemic, there wasn’t a single eight-year contract signed (the maximum term allowed). But this summer there have been 11, including Parayko’s deal.
Eight-year contracts this offseason
| Player | Team | Age | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|
 Brayden Point |
Lightning | 25 | $9,500,000 |
| Seth Jones |
Blackhawks | 26 | $9,500,000 |
| Darnell Nurse |
Oilers | 26 | $9,250,000 |
| Miro Heiskanen |
Stars | 22 | $8,450,000 |
 Sean Couturier |
Flyers | 28 | $7,750,000 |
 Andrei Svechnikov |
Hurricanes | 21 | $7,750,000 |
 Gabriel Landeskog |
Avalanche | 28 | $7,000,000 |
| Colton Parayko |
Blues | 28 | $6,500,000 |
 Adam Pelech |
Islanders | 27 | $5,750,000 |
 Joel Eriksson Ek |
Wild | 24 | $5,250,000 |
 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
Oilers | 28 | $5,125,000 |
“If you look at tendencies around the league, you would have to say that any core player in their late 20s to early 30s are getting long-term deals,” Armstrong said. “It’s difficult to go short (term) with a cap hit (favorable to the team) because players are also running a business. So I think when you look at the contracts now, everyone is doing a little bit of hedging.
“A lot of us are hoping that once the NHLPA and NHL get made whole again from the pandemic, we’ll start seeing those (salary-cap increases) in the second halves of these contracts. We’ll start seeing those 4millionor4 million or 4millionor5 million bumps, and instead of 82.5million,you’reat82.5 million, you’re at 82.5million,you’reat90 million in five years and then $100 and then everything else goes into perspective.”
There are a lot of ifs and risks, and perhaps even more for the Blues with Parayko’s health being a factor. But Armstrong says it’s worth it, and he might be right.
(Photo: Norm Hall / NHLI via Getty Images)
Jeremy Rutherford is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the St. Louis Blues. He has covered the team since the 2005-06 season, including a dozen years at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He is the author of "Bernie Federko: My Blues Note" and "100 Things Blues Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die." In addition, he is the Blues Insider for 101 ESPN in St. Louis. Follow Jeremy on Twitter @jprutherford