NFL Week 3 picks against the spread: Why Falcons’ Bijan Robinson is one RB to take seriously (original) (raw)
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Even Steven. Vic’s Picks. Surf and turf. We’re big into rhymes here, and we’re feeling good about getting back to .500 for the season. Because everybody else got trampled last week. The public was 2-8 on the 10 most heavily bet games, according to BetMGM, while we went 5-5 on those.
It also feels like two-thirds of all survivor pool participants are toast after the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Atlanta Falcons. We had the other side in both of those games, and the big reason is value. Take the Falcons, who beat the Eagles on a last-minute drive. People were burying Kirk Cousins after a season-opening loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers — I still can’t believe T.J. Watt wasn’t AFC Defensive Player of the Week after one of the more dominant performances I’ve ever seen — but the public (said with a sneer) overreacted as Cousins was knocking off rust after surgery on his Achilles.
More importantly, the Falcons still have one of the best running attacks in the league.
The offensive line put on a clinic Monday night, while Bijan Robinson outplayed Saquon Barkley and showed the wiggle and burst that makes him one of the few running backs to take seriously in this league. As much as I feel for the marginalized running backs in the NFL, it’s been proven time and time again that teams shouldn’t pay top dollar for an easily replaceable player.
Robinson was the fastest back in the league (among 52 RBs, minimum six rushes) for the second week in a row when hitting the line, averaging 12.47 miles per hour. And his backup, Tyler Allgeier wasn’t far behind, ranking sixth at 11.95 mph.
The Falcons also have a sneaky good defense and could have been a problem in the NFC if they hadn’t wasted their first-round pick on a backup quarterback for the next two years. We’re on them again this week, as we continue to be your personal shopper, looking high and low for value.
Last week’s record: 9-6-1 against the spread, 2-2-1 on best bets.
Season record: 15-15-2 against the spread, 4-4-2 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC
This is a trap line, as everybody (myself included) is going to want to back Aaron Rodgers against a Patriots team widely perceived as being awful before the season. The Patriots shocked the Bengals in Week 1 and then lost in overtime to the Seahawks last week despite Jacoby Brissett seemingly not throwing a pass over 10 yards and left tackle Vederian Lowe being the worst in the league (pressure rate at left tackle at 13.0 percent). It’s all Rhamondre Stevenson and that shouldn’t be enough against Rodgers, who can’t move anymore but can still sling it. He is the least-pressured QB in the league (18.2 percent of his dropbacks), due in part to averaging the second-fastest time to throw of 2.57 seconds. The Patriots couldn’t cover the Seattle receivers, and Garrett Wilson is due for a breakout game (while Mike Williams is rounding into shape). Also, teams coming off an overtime game are 5-24 against the spread on Thursdays, per BetMGM.
The pick: Jets
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Giants let us down last week, but it wasn’t Daniel Jones. It was Brian Daboll bungling his kicker’s injury situation and Malik Nabers dropping a game-icing pass. They’re playing Taps for our season-over bet of 6.5 wins. The Browns, meanwhile, won despite missing their two offensive tackles, going 2-for-14 on third down and scoring only 18 points. They are 31st this season on third-down conversion rate (13.8 percent) and the only quarterbacks worse than Deshaun Watson (-0.25 EPA per dropback rate) are Will Levis, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Bryce Young. It’s an ugly game, and this is an ugly pick. The Giants keep it close, as apparently I can’t quit Jones.
The pick: Giants
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
It seems smart to keep fading the rookie quarterbacks (they’re actually 3-2-1 against the spread despite playing poorly), and Williams looks overwhelmed at times as his offensive line is wearing cement shoes. The No. 1 pick has yielded the worst total QB EPA mark of any passer making his first two starts since 2000 at -33.5. But no one in the comments section has ever called me smart and I’m on Williams for a second straight week (the Bears covered against the Texans). Two reasons: The Bears’ defense has some teeth, while the Colts’ run defense is horrible, and now they have lost DeForest Buckner. The Packers had no QB and ran for 261 yards against them last week, the third-most in Colts history since the team moved to Indianapolis 40 years ago. Wait … here is a third reason: Indianapolis has a banged-up secondary and also ranks 30th in EPA per pass play with a -0.29 mark.
The pick: Bears
Sam Darnold is flying high with Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings. (Jeffrey Becker / Imagn Images)
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Do they still have singing telegrams? I apparently need to send Sam Darnold one saying I’m sorry. Give him a really smart play caller, a good offensive line and one of the league’s top receivers and he is apparently pretty good. He is 2-0 and I have no plans to go against him again here. While the Texans blitzed and played man coverage 73 percent of the time against Caleb Williams, sacking him five times on those plays, that won’t be a good idea against Darnold. He ranks first in the league in EPA per dropback rate (1.42) against the blitz. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense ranks No. 1 in defensive production rating, sacks (11), pressures (36, tied), QB hits (21) and splash plays (57), while the Texans will likely be without their two top running backs in Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. Darnold for MVP.
The pick: Vikings
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Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Jumping on the Darnold and Derek Carr bandwagons … this is a wild start to the season. I don’t know how long the Saints can keep this up, but asking them to basically just beat a weird Eagles team — that hasn’t found its footing after last season’s collapse — at home seems reasonable. The Eagles are coming off a short week and won’t have their best player, A.J. Brown, again. Jalen Hurts has an 84.2 passer rating, the lowest Weeks 1-2 total of his career, and that number is dropping for the fourth straight season (108 to 97.1 to 93.1 to 84.2). At least he is starting to run again. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is off to a rough start as well, as the Eagles have only three sacks and a leaky secondary. The Saints’ offensive line, meanwhile, has been surprisingly effective and Carr’s been pressured on only 19 percent of his dropbacks — third-best in the league. Rookie left tackle Taliese Fuaga has yet to allow a pressure.
The pick: Saints
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Pass. I really don’t like either 2-0 team in this one. The Chargers’ win over the Panthers means nothing, and sorry, I still don’t trust J.K. Dobbins, Quentin Johnston or that offense. (It’s crazy how ol’ gunslinger Justin Herbert — who has a bad foot and ankle — has only 46 passing attempts and L.A. is 2-0.) The Steelers, meanwhile, had a tough time winning in Denver — who I think stinks — and Justin Fields is being praised a lot for having one touchdown drive this season. The Chargers defense ranks No. 1 in defensive points allowed (6.5) and defensive EPA per play (0.39), but again, they just played the Panthers so … I guess we’ll go against the hobbled quarterback and with the best player on the field, Watt, at home, with an assist from Cameron Heyward, who ranks second in the league with nine QB hits.
The pick: Steelers
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Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Lions were my survivor pick last week, and I am done even though they allowed only 216 yards to the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield made more plays than Jared Goff down the stretch, and that will be the formula again here, as the Buccaneers don’t run the ball well and the Broncos’ run defense is not bad. This is a prime letdown spot for Tampa Bay, and it will be without two of its top defensive players in Antoine Winfield Jr. and Vita Vea. Will it matter at home against Bo Nix? Nah. The rookie misses Pac-12 defenses and ranks 94th in EPA per dropback and 93rd in passer rating among 101 quarterbacks since 2000 making their first two career starts. Yeah, this is a trap line, but sometimes the rat gets away with the cheese.
The pick: Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
What a story Malik Willis was last week. He threw the ball 14 times to lead the Packers to a win over the Colts. We are being sarcastic, but Willis didn’t make any big mistakes and the Packers were able to run the ball all day against the Colts. That won’t be the case this week, as his old team, the Titans, have a good defense and could be 2-0 if not for Will Levis playing like Brett Favre — the 41-year-old version of Favre. (I love it when Brian Callahan loses his mind and starts yelling at Levis.) But Levis will be the best quarterback on the field Sunday, as we don’t expect Jordan Love to rush back and play even though he is “hopeful.” Levis will be helped out by running back Tony Pollard ripping off big runs against a suspect Packers run defense. Calvin Ridley, meanwhile, ranks seventh in EPA per reception at 1.7, and has a rushing TD. Willis will always have last week.
The pick: Titans
Maxx Crosby, the reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week, will have his way against the Panthers. (Reggie Hildred / Imagn Images)
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-7) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Dave Canales said Bryce Young was still his quarterback on Sunday night, and then Monday morning was likely told by the higher-ups that no, no, he wasn’t. Andy Dalton, the 36-year-old Red Rifle, makes his first start since Week 3 of last season, and while he is an upgrade over the undersized, underconfident Young, there is no way he will escape being a bright piñata for Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins and Robert Spillane. The Panthers don’t run the ball well and, more importantly, don’t rush the passer much or stop the run (4.9 yards per carry). There will be no letdown for the Raiders this week, as coach Antonio Pierce is mad that they rank last in the league in rushing yards (98), yards per rush (2.5) and offensive rush success percentage (17.1). It says here that it’s a bounce-back week for RB Zamir White. And for left tackle Kolton Miller as well. He has allowed five sacks, two more than any other lineman in the NFL, in his return from shoulder surgery.
The pick: Raiders
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Seahawks were my favorite team on our season win totals bets, they’re 2-0 and should be 3-0 on Monday. That doesn’t mean there is any value here, and I am actually picking the Dolphins to cover the number, and it’s not because I have any faith in backup QB Skylar Thompson (he produced a -0.27 EPA per dropback rate and 62.2 passer rating when he came in for Tua Tagovailoa in 2022). But the Dolphins will be locked in and still have game-breakers Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane, one of those special running backs similar to Robinson. And the Seahawks have allowed 284 yards rushing this season. It’s also a prime letdown spot for the Seahawks, coming off an overtime win back east in New England and likely still without stud RB Kenneth Walker III.
The pick: Dolphins
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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Attention, shoppers. Clip out the coupons (no one does that anymore, huh?) and buy the Lions against the Cardinals. The Cardinals shredded the bandaged and crutches-ridden Rams last week, as Kyler Murray was 5-of-5 on deep passes (20-plus air yards) for 156 yards and three TDs, according to Zebra Technologies. Marvin Harrison Jr. looked so good he might have locked up Offensive Rookie of the Year after a no-show in Week 1. And this pick has nothing to do with them. The Cardinals secondary is pretty bad, which you wouldn’t have noticed last week as the Rams were lining up guys off the street out wide. The Lions have many, many weapons on offense, with Jameson Williams one of the most improved players in the league, and Jared Goff can’t have three off games in a row. Not against the Cardinals. We just need the Lions defense to slow down Murray a little bit, and Aidan Hutchinson leads the league in pressure rate at 25 percent. They should also blitz, as Murray is 29th with a -0.62 EPA rate when defenses release the hounds.
The pick: Lions
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
It’s rare that a game comes down to one question, but this one does: Do the Ravens have any faith in Derrick Henry? They gave him the ball only 13 times last week in a game in which they led in the fourth quarter against the Raiders. The Ravens also had some losses on the offensive line in the offseason, Lamar Jackson missed clutch throws and their defense is not as good as it was. That’s why they are 0-2. But they are good enough to beat the Cowboys if they get Henry and Jackson going on the ground. The Cowboys just got marched on by the Saints and have allowed one rushing TD on every 11.6 carries this season, the worst rate in the NFL. They rank 31st in defensive total rush EPA and defensive rush success percentage. Running the ball will also help keep Dak Prescott off the field, as the Ravens are 26th in defensive EPA per pass at -0.19. Give us Henry — who I thought the Cowboys should have signed — and the desperate Ravens.
The pick: Ravens
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The 49ers have lost Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr., and are still the picture of health compared to the poor Rams, who are without their two star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and are also beat up on the offensive line and in the secondary. And it’s not like Matthew Stafford is the picture of health. Defensively, the “we won’t miss Aaron Donald that much” storyline isn’t going well, as their young players are struggling and their linebackers are being exposed. The Rams rank last in defensive total rush EPA (-10.09) and rushing first downs allowed (26), so Jordan Mason’s run to the league rushing title continues. Kyle Shanahan has always had Sean McVay’s number anyway, 49ers fans will take over SoFi Stadium and this matchup looks bad enough that maybe McVay should give Stafford a mercy breather and throw Jimmy Garoppolo in against his old team in his first game back from a two-game PED suspension. The public is pounding the Niners and gets their revenge for last week.
The pick: 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
Both teams are coming off dramatic wins, but the Chiefs seem more likely to exhale because theirs came against the hated Bengals, who are probably a bigger rival than the 49ers or any of the AFC West teams. Plus, the Chiefs are having an open mic night at running back after Isiah Pacheco’s injury. Carson Steele has a pet alligator, which should give him an edge over Samaje Perine and the recently re-signed Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs also had to pull rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia last week after he gave up a league-high 14.8 pressure rate with two sacks allowed. The Falcons, like we said, should lean on their running game, especially because the Chiefs have the lowest defensive rush success percentage (41.9 percent) in the league. Oh, and did we mention perhaps the greatest home-field advantage ever? Owner Arthur Blank will enter the Falcons Ring of Honor on Sunday night and is giving every fan in attendance two free hot dogs, two free bags of chips and all-you-can-drink soda in a souvenir cup. Here’s to a three-hour rush of caffeine and Robinson.
The pick: Falcons
The disappointing Jaguars need to establish the ground game with Travis Etienne Jr. (Jeremy Reper / Imagn Images)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-6) | 7:30 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
If the Panthers are the worst team in the league, the Jaguars are the most disappointing. They threw Trevor Lawrence a lot of money this offseason, and he is throwing a lot of passes over his receivers’ heads. His passer rating is 82.3, but he also had a slow start last season (84.1), if that gives Jaguars fans any hope. Lawrence will be under pressure from Greg Rousseau and Von Miller, who has two sacks and ranks eighth in pressure rate at 22 percent. The Bills have some holes in the middle and aren’t very good against the run, though, so the Jaguars’ best bet is to establish RB Travis Etienne Jr. He ranks 37th among 38 qualified RBs with a -0.40 EPA per target/rush rate, but we backed No. 38 (Zamir White) earlier and we’re a sucker for a theme. Josh Allen — second in EPA per dropback rate (0.44) and total QB EPA (26.4) — gets the win and more MVP hype, but the desperate Jaguars lose by less than six.
The pick: Jaguars
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
Rookie quarterbacks Jayden Daniels, Williams and Nix have combined for zero touchdown passes on 196 attempts, the first time that’s happened the first two weeks since 1983. Daniels has been the best of the three and is a dangerous runner. He also ranks third in the NFL with a 75.5 completion percentage, but that’s with a league-low 4.6 air yards per attempt average and he’s been sacked seven times. The Bengals showed signs of life last week, and should be able to get to Daniels as well. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow bounced back from a sluggish Week 1 and played well in the last-second loss to the Chiefs, Tee Higgins may be back and the Commanders’ pass defense is not good. The Bengals get a desperately needed easy win on national television so all the talking heads can yell that they are back on Tuesday morning.
The pick: Bengals
Best bets: We’re tripling down that the Patriots, Broncos and Panthers are not good, and going with the Jets, Buccaneers and Raiders at home, respectively. We also are going to ride with Pollard and the Titans to beat the Packers, and hope that we are right that the beat-up Rams have no shot against the 49ers.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): There is only one eligible pick, the Falcons plus-155 over the Chiefs. You like that?! (0-2 for the season.)
— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder.
(Top photo of Bijan Robinson: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)