Fantasy football rankings Week 3: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits (original) (raw)

If you survived the injury onslaught, congratulations! But if you’re like most, the Week 3 fantasy football rankings and game breakdowns will be crucial to the added start/sit decisions. Sleepers, insights, and more — I have them here for you, including “Bachelor Party” rankings.

• Fantasy Football rankings! — obviously
• Sleepers — will aim to give at least one per team
• Notes — aka, breakdowns, game previews, what have you — important things
• Fun ranks! This can be anything from cartoons to players from the 80s to things not to do when you’re over 30 — feel free to suggest yours
• Answering questions in the comments — I try to answer as many as I humanly can!

#CheckTheLink-age

Week 3 SOS Ranks
Fantasy Football 101 (weather, lineups, trading, more)
All in Fantasy Podcast

WEEK 3 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS

Patriots at Jets, Thursday, 8 p.m. ET

• SLEEPERS
  • Hunter Henry, TE, NE — Possibly not a sleeper at this point, nor should he be. Henry is a Top 10 TE option with Jacoby Brissett.
  • Mike Williams, WR, NYJ — Was up to one fewer route than Allen Lazard. Williams might be finally ready for full work.
• NOTES: Rhamondre Stevenson has been a stud and then some, but I’d float him as a sell-high given concerns over the offense as a whole… Ja’Lynn Polk is a deep sleeper with his deep-play ability, though he’s still fourth in routes… Braelon Allen is close to being a Flex play with byes coming.

Giants at Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m.

• • SLEEPERS
    * (NA), NYG — You’re starting Malik Nabers, and most likely Devin Singletary, but against the Browns defense? Singletary might be a necessity, not a want.
    * D’Onta Foreman, RB, CLE — The Giants run defense continues to be exploitable, and while last week made me question Foreman and Jerome Ford, the matchup makes it riskable (new word).
  • NOTES: Back to Nabers…

Malik Nabers bonkers 66.7 TmTGT% put him at 38.5% through Week 2

That would rank 2nd highest as far back as @TruMediaSports goes (2000)

1. Brandon Marshall 40.1, 2012
2. Nabers 38.5
3. Kupp 36.0, 2024 (goodbye)
4. Hopkins 33.7, 2017
5. Roddy White 33.2, 2008

— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) September 17, 2024

Packers at Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Romeo Doubs, WR, GB — It was all run game while Malik Willis is under center, but Doubs continues to be the No. 1 route runner if needy.
  • (NA), TEN — Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley… the end.
• NOTES: Doubs is the only Packers option with over 90.0 Route% (he is at 90.7, and Jayden Reed is second at 75.9%) and over 18.0 TmTGT% (at 22.2, and Reed second again at 17.8%)… Partly because of their offensive struggles, but also a big part being the Packers’ heavy run plan, the Colts had the ball for a mere 19:49 minutes in Week 2… The Packers went from 25.3 seconds/snap in neutral script to 32.2 in Week 2.

Bears at Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI — Even while knowing the Packers would run, the Colts couldn’t do anything after being unable to limit Joe Mixon in Week 1. If Swift is going to get right, now’s the chance.
  • Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, WR, IND — As mentioned in waivers, Adonai Mitchell being a clear third option last week points to losing hope that he could take advantage and grab the No. 2 role. If Downs is ready to go, he’s a decent gamble, and if he’s not, Pierce and his boom/bust upside is a flier.
• NOTES: The Bears are fifth-toughest in allowing a first down or TD per pass attempt (25.0%) and yards per play (4.5)… Jonathan Taylor went from 100% of the third-down touches in Week 1 to none in Week 2. Of course, this could be because of the game situations/scripts, but it’s worth noting for future usage.

Texans at Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Tank Dell, WR, HOU — The Texans run three-wide on 78.7% of their dropbacks. Dell has two fewer routes than Nico Collins, and is at 20.9 TmTGT% to 11.6 for Stefon Diggs on first and second down. It’s coming for Dell.
  • Jalen Nailor, WR, MIN — If… Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison misses this game, Nailor is in play. If both suit up, I’d avoid Nailor, and I’d avoid him as the No. 1 if both are out, given the defensive attention.
• NOTES: If Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are out, Cam Akers would be a risk/reward RB2… if Pierce is active, both would be gambles as RB3s… I’m buying low on Aaron Jones if managers are panicking about Week 2 and Ty Chandler. Jones never did/doesn’t need bellcow work to be a Top 20 running back.

Eagles at Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Jahan Dotson, WR, PHI — You have to be pretty desperate, but Dotson did run 30 of 35 routes without A.J. Brown.
  • Jamaal Williams, RB, NO — Hard to find someone even in the Saints offense (after the obvious starts, including Rashid Shaheed), but if the Saints roll again…
• NOTES: The Eagles defense is last in forcing 3-and-Outs at just 15.0%, and they’re allowing the fourth-most points per drive at 2.55… It’s only two games, so don’t panic over Chris Olave — he has a similar TmTGT% to last year with a higher YPRR (2.42 to 2.07)… Without Brown, Dallas Goedert’s TmTGT% actually dropped from 17.2 in Week 1 to 13.8. Where have all the tight ends gone?

Chargers at Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • (Caution) — Going the other way here, as the Steelers defense is worrisome, making Quentin Johnston risky even with his ascension.
  • (Caution, again) — The Chargers defense has been pretty good through two weeks… okay, it was the Panthers last week and Raiders before that, but they held Jakobi Meyers to 61 yards and Davante Adams to 59.
• NOTES: See above — this could be a defensive drain, and Justin Fields hasn’t posted sub-14-point games in back-to-back weeks since Weeks 3-4 in 2022.

Broncos at Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Josh Reynolds, WR, DEN — As mentioned in waivers, he’s the only one with a pulse.
  • (Start your studs) — I like Bucky Irving as a must-add, but the Broncos run defense is worrisome even after Kenneth Walker’s 20/103/1 line in Week 1, and I’m not looking to risk Jalen McMillan against their pass defense either.
• NOTES: The Buccaneers have the fourth-highest explosive play percentage (14.8% — runs of 12+ or receptions of 16+)… they also have the third-lowest rush attempts per touchdown allowed (good for opponents) at 14.3 rushes per touchdown, while allowing 4.9 yards per attempt. Maybe Javonte Williams can get something (anything!) of worth this week.

Panthers at Raiders, Sunday, 4 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Diontae Johnson, WR, CAR — Quarterback change puts him back in play, but don’t go nuts (see below).
  • Zamir White, RB, LV — The Panthers run defense is abysmal, and White’s third-down/passing game use increased in Week 2.
• NOTES: Bryce Young’s OFFTGT% for his career: 15.6, and Dalton’s is 10.0 since it’s been tracked (2019+), so it’s a boost, but it’s not like Dalton is Drew Brees… The Raiders defense gets credit, but they actually have the fourth-lowest QB Pressure% when sending 5+ rushers (23.5%).

Dolphins at Seahawks, Sunday, 4 p.m.

• • SLEEPERS
    * (Start them even with Skylar Thompson), MIA — Don’t go past the main four (Raheem Mostert if he plays).
    * Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA — Would be in play as a WR3/4 even without Tyler Lockett slipping back a bit last week (injury included), as the Dolphins are most vulnerable to slot work.
  • NOTES: Significant WR concern without Tua Tagovailoa, but still startable…

FPPG with and without Tua

Tyreek: 18.8 to 12.2
Waddle: 12.8 to 8.2
Mostert: 13.1 to 12.6
(nothing for Achane splits)

— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) September 17, 2024

Ravens at Cowboys, Sunday, 4 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Justice Hill, RB, BAL — Been in the Flex conversation, and will be if the Cowboys offense rebounds.
  • Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL — Assuming he plays, the Ravens are vulnerable to tight ends.
• NOTES: The Ravens led the NFL in 12-set with 52.7% in Week 1, and they dropped to 30.2% in Week 2… The Chiefs blitz near a Top 5 rate while the Raiders and Cowboys are mid-pack. We could see less Isaiah Likely again this week.

49ers at Rams, Sunday, 4 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Jauan Jennings, WR, SF — No Deebo Samuel equals more for Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, but Jennings also becomes a nice flier.
  • Jordan Whittington, WR, LAR — Higher ceiling than Tyler Johnson and filled the Cooper Kupp role.
• NOTES: Brandon Aiyuk jumps from 21.7 TmTGT% to 24.2, 2.25 YPRR to 2.86 and 6.1 TD/TGT% to 8.3 without Deebo Samuel on the field the past two years… The Rams pass 71.4% of the time in neutral script, and second highest is the Bengals at 66.3%… The Rams have run three-wide on 100% of their drop-backs with the second-highest pre-snap motion too (75.8%, Packers first at 83.3%).

Lions at Cardinals, Sunday, 4 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Kalif Raymond, WR, DET — If Amon-Ra St. Brown is less than 100%, Raymond has popped off at times in the past, and this is a potential shootout.
  • Greg Dortch, WR, ARI — Slot wideouts against the Lions! And while I don’t like chasing Dortch or Michael Wilson games, this one has promise.
• NOTES: Worse OFFTGT% than Jared Goff this year: Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Tua Tagovailoa — end of list… Kyler Murray has 7.7 TD/ATT% which, while it’s a small sample, also blows away his previous high of 5.0%.

Chiefs at Falcons, Sunday, 8 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Travis Kelce, TE, KC — Can we call him a sleeper? I’m not benching him, and as we discussed on my podcast, the key to unlocking late-career Kelce is making Xavier Worthy a constant.
  • Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL — It’s the tight end game. Chiefs are vulnerable to them, Kirk Cousins looked good on that final drive (like the Achilles wasn’t an issue), and Pitts has caught six of his seven targets.
• NOTES: Chiefs are one of the most blitz-happy teams, and among active quarterbacks, only Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott have better passer ratings when blitzed. If Cousins is truly okay now, he can exploit the aggressive matchup.

Jaguars at Bills, Monday, 7:30 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • (Hard stop) — Unless your name is Travis Etienne or my guy, Brian Thomas Jr., I don’t like you!
  • Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF — See waivers. I’m not sure how Shakir dipped back under 60% rostered.
• NOTES: Back to OFFTGT%, well, right behind Goff is Daniel Jones and Trevor Lawrence… we’re running out of excuses for Lawrence… James Cook has three goal-to-go rush attempts and two goal-line rushes this year. He had 12 and 5, respectively, all of last year.

Commanders at Bengals, Monday, 8:15 p.m.

• SLEEPERS
  • Noah Brown, WR, WSH — He’s possibly the No. 2 already, and if Jayden Daniels starts taking more shots downfield, Brown has a high ceiling.
  • Tee Higgins or Andrei Iosivas, WR, CIN — Higgins would be a must-start if he returns, so I wanted to mention him in case you were hesitant, but the matchup is too juicy. Iosivas is worthy of a flier with or without Higgins due to the matchup as well.
• NOTES: The Bengals backfield is Zack Moss’ with him sitting 15th in RBTouch% at 70.6, plus 100% of third down use… Quarterbacks with more air yards per attempt than Jayden Daniels…

FUN WITH RANKS

Best Bachelor Party Ideas

After my “Things NOT to do after you’re 30” list from last year and mention of my skydiving for a bachelor “party,” this was suggested (and as always, feel free to suggest yours).

1. Skydiving — Everyone should go at least once! Only gripe is I wanted it to be more crazy.
2. Go-Kart Racing — Mario Kart in real life. Though, be warned — fights and/or getting thrown out are risks.
3. Paintball — Go-Kart level of competition without potentially being thrown out. The aggression and fights though? Still at play.
4. River Rafting — You don’t have to go full intensity level and risk drowning, but an adventurous outdoor option.
5. Flag Football — I mean, we all love football, don’t we? Would rank higher if not for risk of injury (hey, 30-plusers).
6. Axe Throwing — Enjoyed this more than I thought I would. Indoor competition where you can eat and drink too (you know I don’t, but I know most everyone does).
7. Sporting Event — Would rank higher if not for cost.
8. Theme Park — Same as sporting event cost, though more “thrills,” and more potential time in line.
9. Skiing/Snowboarding — Skiing if you’re 30+ unless you snowboard yearly. Added option to rent a cabin for the night.
10. Poker — Maybe only in the wheelhouse of people like me, but I’m always game.
11. Bowling — Competition on a lower level… with likely more drinking.
12. Karaoke — Too easy to do at any given time, so more of a combination of events option.
13. Golf — Cost, time, difficulty getting it together — would rank higher if not for all of that.
14. Escape Room — Similar to Karaoke, part of a group of events is better, but you can compete brain-wise (and get in more fights).
15. Obstacle Course — Would be Top 10, even Top 5, if not for needing to find somewhere to do this because you’re not putting one together… but, oh, the competition!

WEEK 3 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and MY RANKS are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

Download Link — Projections

WEEK 3 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

• There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to properly work.
• ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
• Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

(Top photo of Tank Dell: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images)

Jake Ciely is rankings: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Baseball, candy, movies, video games, cereal... anything! Truly, Jake is a ranking prodigy. Oh, he's also the senior fantasy writer for The Athletic, an award-winning analyst and loves DuckTales. Make sure you #CheckTheLink and #BanKickers ... woo-oo! Follow Jake on Twitter @allinkid