How will nonconference rivalry games affect College Football Playoff committee’s decisions? (original) (raw)
Outside of revenue and College Football Playoff access, rivalries remain the lifeblood of college football. That’s true within every league and for several programs with important nonconference rivalries.
This week, we’re taking a look at the nonconference in-state and regional rivalries (plus one national series) and their importance to College Football Playoff access. Among the power conferences, 21 rivalries qualify with some already played and others to follow throughout the season. With the CFP expanding to 12 teams, here is a look at what those rivalries mean based on their CFP impact from five (the most) to one (the least).
Level 5: Major importance
Notre Dame at USC, Nov. 30 — The Irish bounced back from a terrible loss to Northern Illinois to throttle longtime in-state rival Purdue 66-7 last weekend. Based on its remaining nine games, USC is by far the most challenging opponent remaining for Notre Dame. The result against USC could mean the difference between a home Playoff game and completely missing the field. As for USC, its biggest CFP hurdles come this weekend at Michigan and Oct. 12 against Penn State. Even if the Trojans enter the game 9-2, the outcome against Notre Dame could stamp an exclamation point on their CFP resume or end their playoff hopes.
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Georgia 34, Clemson 3, Aug. 31 — This point margin carries greater importance for both leagues’ CFP discussion than the actual result. Going forward, any SEC playoff contender (like Ole Miss or Tennessee) will lay its box score alongside the Georgia-Clemson game, especially if the Tigers are in the at-large pool. Those teams instantly will use their margin of defeat to their advantage. If Clemson wins the ACC title, it gives the SEC even more fuel against ACC contenders.
Level 4: Pivotal with potential
Iowa State 20, Iowa 19, Sept. 7 — Kyle Konrardy’s 54-yard field goal with six seconds remaining helped Iowa State win and elevated ISU and the Big 12 in CFP positioning. The Cyclones are bona fide Big 12 contenders, and this road victory will gain extra credit if Iowa racks up wins. Conversely, Iowa’s CFP hopes are wounded by the last-second loss, especially with a game on Oct. 5 at Ohio State.
Kyle Konrardy’s game-winning field goal lifted Iowa State over Iowa. (Jeffrey Becker / Imagn Images)
Georgia Tech at Georgia, Nov. 30 — Another SEC-ACC rivalry, the Yellow Jackets are much improved and could test the Bulldogs. A Tech upset (Georgia won 31-23 last year) could adjust Georgia’s CFP positioning, whether the Bulldogs are the SEC champions or at-large contenders. There is history with this game. In 2014, Tech’s overtime win against Georgia sent the Yellow Jackets to a New Year’s Six bowl while it pushed their longtime foe from a major bowl to the Belk Bowl.
Miami 41, Florida 17, Aug. 31 — Whichever team lost this game was going to face intense backlash, and the Hurricanes earned a signature victory. Miami now appears to be the ACC favorite, and the dominant road win pushed it into the top 10.
South Carolina at Clemson, Nov. 30 — This in-state rivalry could have CFP implications for Clemson and perhaps South Carolina, which suffered a crushing loss to LSU last Saturday. Clemson already will have its ACC fate decided, but the result could alter its Playoff positioning. The Gamecocks, conversely, could help their SEC brethren with a victory.
Pittsburgh 38, West Virginia 34, Sept. 14 — The Backyard Brawl gave the Panthers their second straight comeback win against a former conference foe, and this one has the potential to propel them throughout the season. It’s too early to determine if Pitt will enter the CFP debate, but beating West Virginia could have benefits should Eli Holstein continue his playmaking ascension as a first-year starting quarterback.
Level 3: A checkmark … or more?
Oregon 49, Oregon State 14, Sept. 14 — The Civil War’s return was good for the football soul. More importantly for the Ducks, the outcome solidified their status as national title contenders after two subpar weeks to open the season. Oregon State’s hopes of creating a CFP conundrum were trampled under the Oregon offensive line.
Nebraska 28, Colorado 10, Sept. 7 — The disdain these former Big 12 rivals have for one another is obvious, but the game’s big-picture importance remains undetermined. After all, neither team had a winning record last year. But Nebraska looks the part for the first time since early 2016 when it was ranked as high as No. 7. This victory may not help the Huskers in their march toward the CFP, but it was a feel-good outcome, nevertheless.
Miami at South Florida, Sept. 21 — This has the potential to become a sneaky important game. Nobody would call these teams true rivals, but both are on the rise and located in the same state. South Florida, which would need to win the AAC to qualify for the CFP, competed with Alabama for three quarters on Sept. 7 before the Tide ran away in the final quarter. Miami has obliterated every opponent thus far, but how the Hurricanes deal with success against a motivated foe punching upward will tell us plenty about their CFP stature.
Oregon State at California, Oct. 26 — These teams competed in the same league largely from 1915 through June. Now, California is in the ACC, and Oregon State is holding on to the Pac-12 name until the cavalry comes in 2026. The Golden Bears are off to a 3-0 start and scored a major win at Auburn on Sept. 7. Although this series won’t make anyone’s top 100 list of greatest rivalries, competing in meaningful games with CFP ramifications featuring longtime foes enhances the series’ importance.
Louisville at Kentucky, Nov. 30 — Kentucky’s CFP hopes are on life support after falling to South Carolina and Georgia to open the SEC season. Louisville has won its two games decisively and a long season awaits. But if the Cardinals reach the final weekend with CFP hopes, they’ll have to travel to face a team that has beaten them five straight games and took No. 1 Georgia to the wire in a 13-12 loss.
Washington State 24, Washington 19, Sept. 14 — The Apple Cup remains a storied series, and it was important that these teams met despite the national runner-up Huskies leaving for the Big Ten. The Huskies’ CFP hopes are not realistic with a tough Big Ten schedule. But the Cougars just seized on an opportunity to mess with the system. As a Pac-12 holdover with Oregon State, Washington State doesn’t have an automatic CFP bid, but it has a team and a schedule capable of winning out. This result could escalate Wazzu’s case for inclusion.
TCU at SMU, Sept. 21 — Once Southwest Conference castoffs, these two have made their way into power conferences and will maintain their DFW series through the 2025 season. This contest might have carried more importance had TCU not blown a 21-point second-half lead against UCF or SMU had held on against BYU. But at a minimum, this game serves as a data point for the Big 12 and ACC.
Level 2: Simply feels good
Notre Dame 66, Purdue 7, Sept. 14 — After handing Purdue the biggest home loss and greatest margin of defeat in its history, Notre Dame bounced back emphatically after losing 16-14 at home against Northern Illinois. It’s not enough to complete erase that defeat, but the Irish showed they were much better than what they displayed on Sept. 7.
UCF at Florida, Oct. 5 — This could climb in importance if unbeaten UCF continues to pile up victories. Like Miami-South Florida, this pairing is less a rivalry and more of a morganatic historical relationship with Florida as royalty and UCF as a new title holder. If the Gators can upset UCF, however, then it significantly bolsters the SEC’s at-large potential. If UCF wins, its appeal is more local than its impact on the CFP.
Maryland 27, Virginia 13, Sept. 14 — Neither team seems in position to crack into the CFP rankings, and it’s unlikely the outcome will matter much in the final analysis. But watching these old ACC rivals with more than a century of football history between them felt right as the hard feelings dissipate from Maryland’s ACC exit 10 years ago.
Florida at Florida State, Nov. 30 — A month ago, this would have been a level-five matchup. Now, it might be ranked too high considering the teams have one win (against an FCS team) between them. FSU easily is the nation’s most disappointing team. Will Florida even have a coach for this game? The CFP impact appears minimal for either team or their conference.
Level 1: At least the fans care
Colorado 28, Colorado State 9, Sept. 14 — Neither team qualified for a bowl last year, and they both may meet the same fate this year, too. But the Buffaloes are at least interesting.
Utah 48, Utah State 0, Sept. 14 — The result was exactly what was expected. The only way this game would have CFP relevance outside of Utah would be if the Aggies had pulled a shocker.
Houston 33, Rice 7, Sept. 14 — Both teams are 1-2 after this game. We’ll leave it at that.
(Top photo of Georgia scoring a touchdown against Clemson: Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)
Scott Dochterman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Iowa Hawkeyes. He previously covered Iowa athletics for the Cedar Rapids Gazette and Land of 10. Scott also worked as an adjunct professor teaching sports journalism at the University of Iowa.