College football Week 4 oddly specific predictions: Rolling with road favorites (original) (raw)
It was a good week for picking winners. I went 8-1 straight up (21-6 for the season) and nailed three upsets. Sometimes, you just need a couple of lucky bounces, and we got 10 on one play in UNLV’s win at Kansas.
My weekly stat stuffers did not go as well. I got close, though, on a few.
We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There are some phenomenal matchups.
Most passing yards
Nobody has attempted more passes among FBS quarterbacks than Appalachian State’s Joey Aguilar (124 in three games). With South Alabama coming off an 87-point outburst in a win over Northwestern State last week, it feels like the scoreboard operator and statisticians inside App State’s Kidd Brewer Stadium could be busy Thursday night.
The Jaguars pass defense has rebounded nicely since giving up 446 yards in a season-opening loss to North Texas, but I’ll take Aguilar to throw for 400-plus yards and three touchdowns, and for the Mountaineers to cover the 7.5-point spread in a 14-point win at home on a short week.
Most rushing yards
Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty has been the best running back in the country by a wide margin, and this week he gets to face Portland State at home. That would be the same defense that gave up 224 rushing yards in a 70-30 loss to Washington State and 318 rushing yards in a 43-16 loss to Weber State.
GO DEEPERFrom Italy to Boise State, how RB Ashton Jeanty became a scoring sensation
It’s a safe bet Jeanty is going to have a career day with more than 350 yards on the ground — topping the 267 he had in Week 1 against Georgia Southern — in another plea to Heisman voters and a blowout of an overmatched FCS team. If you’re wondering, the FBS single-game record was set by Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine (427 yards) in 2014.
A round 1 RB brewing???
Ashton Jeanty looks like the TRUTH! 💨 pic.twitter.com/YtsSqhkdMP
— The DRAFT JUNKIES (@nfljunkiesdraft) September 8, 2024
Most receiving yards
San Jose State’s Nick Nash leads all FBS receivers in catches (34), yards (485) and receiving touchdowns (six). On Friday night, the 6-foot-3, 198-pound redshirt junior and former quarterback leads the 3-0 Spartans into Pullman to face a 3-0 Washington State team feeling good after its Apple Cup upset victory. The Cougars, 13.5-point favorites, have a trip to Boise State next week.
Washington State will win by a touchdown, but I think Nash (15 catches, 180-plus yards, two TDs) and quarterback Emmett Brown (300-plus yards, three TDs) will put a good scare into the Cougars, who rank 128th nationally in passing yards allowed (301 per game).
Nick Nash is making the most of his transition to WR.pic.twitter.com/1J93ikiDCm
— Felix Sharpe l Campus2Canton.com (@sharpereview) September 15, 2024
Five big games
No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (-9)
The Cornhuskers are playing their first weekday home game since 2001 in front of what will be the program’s 400th consecutive home sellout crowd. The best part of this 3-0 start for Nebraska has been its defense, which has held UTEP, Colorado and Northern Iowa to a combined 20 points and a measly 4.2 yards per play. Stopping Illinois will pose a tougher physical test up front, but the Illini frankly don’t have the firepower needed to pull the upset without the aid of turnovers (Illinois is plus-8 for the season).
Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola has thrown just one interception to date, and I expect he’ll continue to protect the ball this week (zero turnovers). It’ll be another good showing for Nebraska’s Dante Dowdell (100-plus total yards, two TDs) as the Cornhuskers hold Illinois under 300 yards of offense and win by 11 points.
No. 11 USC (-6) at No. 18 Michigan
In the preseason, I picked Michigan to make the 12-team College Football Playoff and USC to finish 8-4. But this Wolverines offense has been stinky cheese through a 2-1 start and could be without top receiving target Colston Loveland this week. USC’s defensive turnaround, meanwhile, has been nothing short of eye-opening, with the Trojans recording their first shutout since 2011 two weeks ago.
The key question heading into this game is if Michigan’s newly named starting quarterback, Alex Orji, can shake things up in Ann Arbor. He will. Orji will provide a jolt on the ground (100-plus rushing yards, one TD) but not nearly enough through the air (130-plus passing yards, one TD). USC’s Miller Moss (220-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Woody Marks (80-plus rushing yards, one TD) help the Trojans escape the Big House with a four-point win.
INTERVIEW: Sherrone Moore explained the decision to make Alex Orji Michigan's starting quarterback for the game against USC.
"People have their opinions on him, but he can definitely throw. He'll make some big throws this week," Moore said. pic.twitter.com/EwGmE8Q9hb
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) September 16, 2024
No. 12 Utah (-2.5) at No. 14 Oklahoma State
I said in the preseason this game would be the first of two meetings between the Utes and Cowboys and I’m sticking with that. Utah’s Cam Rising is supposed to be back after missing last week’s win against Utah State with a hand injury. Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II, meanwhile, has gotten off to an extremely slow start (3.5 yards per carry, down from 6.1 in 2023).
The difference between the teams is that Utah’s defense is legitimately good (11.0 points and 252.7 yards allowed per game) while Oklahoma State is giving up far too many yards (462.7 per game, 125th nationally). Rising (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Micah Bernard (100-plus rushing yards, one TD) are going to put up solid numbers, and Utah will control the clock and the game in a double-digit win at Boone Pickens Stadium.
Oklahoma State gets Utah and Kansas State back to back… Mike Gundy: pic.twitter.com/T3vnpQhN0R
— John Canzano (@johncanzanobft) September 17, 2024
No. 6 Tennessee (-7.5) at No. 15 Oklahoma
In the preseason, I picked Oklahoma to win its first nine games and make the 12-team Playoff. But the Sooners have looked very mediocre on offense with a few key players out with injuries while Tennessee has lit up the scoreboard against Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State and leads the nation with 63.7 points per game.
Here’s the thing: Brent Venables’ defense is good (11.3 points per game, plus-8 turnover margin) and the Sooners own the best FBS home winning percentage (.917) since 1999. Jackson Arnold (220-plus passing yards, two TDs) and receiver Nic Anderson (six catches, 75 yards, one TD) will keep it close. But Tennessee will earn its first road win over a top-15 opponent since 2006 because Dylan Sampson doesn’t fumble. Sampson will finish with 120-plus rushing yards and the decisive touchdown run in the fourth quarter in a five-point Vols’ victory.
Dylan Sampson is 1st in the SEC in touchdowns (9) and 2nd in the SEC in yards (357).
He was not on a single Preseason All-SEC team. pic.twitter.com/nAHW2GgQ7Q
— More Important Issues (@More_Issues) September 17, 2024
Georgia Tech at No. 19 Louisville (-10.5)
The ACC has three teams ranked in the AP Top 25, and we’ll find out Saturday if Louisville actually deserves a spot. The Cardinals crushed Austin Peay and Jacksonville State but will get a test from the Yellow Jackets, who have yet to allow a sack and rank fourth in the ACC in rushing yards per carry (5.6) thanks to quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes.
The Cardinals won last year’s meeting 39-34 despite surrendering a season-high 488 yards. This year, the Yellow Jackets will put another scare into Jeff Brohm’s team behind King (330 yards of total offense, three TDs) and Haynes (100-plus rushing yards, one TD) before a late touchdown drive by Tyler Shough (280-plus passing yards, two TDs) wins it for Louisville.
Tyler Shough throws such an effortless and catchable deep ball. Fits well in the Brohm vertical passing game #GoCards pic.twitter.com/hyVAwPPW1E
— Clint Brewster (@clintbrew247) September 10, 2024
Upset alert
Rutgers at Virginia Tech (-3.5)
Nobody handles more carries per game (23) at the FBS level than Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai. He’s averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and 186.5 yards per game. The Hokies have beaten Marshall and Old Dominion over the past two weeks since their disappointing opening week overtime loss at Vanderbilt. That’s the good news. The bad news: Virginia Tech is giving up 5.1 yards per carry and 190.3 yards per game on the ground for the season.
The Big Ten’s defending rushing champion runs through the Hokies this week for 190-plus yards and two scores, and Rutgers beats Virginia Tech for the second year in a row by a field goal in Blacksburg.
Kyle Monangai such a BEAST
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 7, 2024
Week 3 report card
• How about those Rebels? Matthew Sluka accumulated 210 yards of total offense and UNLV ran for 181 yards — 19 shy of the mark I predicted in the upset at Kansas. So I wasn’t right about 200 rushing yards or Sluka scoring the winning touchdown (Kylin James did), but I’ve hit on two “Upset Alert” picks in a row.
• My worst misses of the week came in the North Texas–Texas Tech game. Not only was I wrong about the Mean Green beating the Red Raiders outright (Texas Tech won 66-21), but North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris did not lead the nation in passing in Week 3. He finished 78th, with 162 yards to go along with three interceptions. Middle Tennessee’s Nicholas Vattiato had the most passing yards in Week 3 with 456 in a 49-21 loss to Western Kentucky.
• I was right about Kansas State beating Arizona, covering a seven-point spread at home and putting an end to the nation’s longest winning streak. But I was wrong about DJ Giddens hitting the 100-yard rushing mark for the seventh game in a row (he finished with 86), and while Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita (268 yards, one INT) and wideout Tetairoa McMillan (11 catches, 138 yards) put up good numbers, they weren’t quite as productive as I anticipated.
• I was right about Boston College making its visit to Missouri more interesting than the ACC vs. SEC ranked matchups between Georgia–Clemson and Tennessee-NC State in previous weeks. The Eagles covered the 17-point spread and lost 27-21.
• I was right about Alabama blowing out Wisconsin at Camp Randall and covering the 16.5-point spread. But Jalen Milroe didn’t hit the 300-yard mark for total offense (271 yards, five TDs), and freshman Ryan Williams (four catches, 78 yards, one TD) fell short of the 100-yard mark.
• I was right about Pittsburgh upsetting West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. Panthers QB Eli Holstein exceeded my forecast of 280-plus yards and two touchdowns by throwing for 301 scores and three scores.
• I was right about Washington State upsetting Washington to win the Apple Cup, and Cougars quarterback John Mateer did outperform Huskies QB Will Rogers. Mateer totaled 307 yards of total offense and accounted for three touchdowns (I called for 350 yards and three TDs) while Rogers totaled 303 yards and one touchdown (I called for 250-plus passing yards and two TDs).
• So, I thought this was pretty funny: In the first two weeks, I called for North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton to lead all FBS rushers. It didn’t happen until Week 3 when I predicted Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson to do it. Hampton ran for 210 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-10 win over North Carolina Central. Johnson finished fourth among all FBS rushers last week with 173 yards. At least I was right about Iowa failing to cover the 19.5-point spread in a 38-21 win over Troy. I said the Hawkeyes would win by 15 points.
(Photo of Nico Iamaleava: Bryan Lynn / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Manny Navarro has been with The Athletic since September 2018 and covers Miami and recruiting. He's also the host of the "Wide Right" podcast. Manny's career started at The Miami Herald in October 1995 when he was a high school senior. He covered the Hurricanes, Heat, Marlins and high school sports for 23 years at the paper. He makes occasional appearances on WSVN's Sports Xtra on Sunday nights and is on the "Big O Show" with Orlando Alzugaray at 12:30 p.m. Tuesdays and Fridays. Follow Manny on Twitter @Manny_Navarro