Patriots-Jets preview, predictions: What Jacoby Brissett and the offense need to do (original) (raw)

A New England Patriots season that has already been more functional and watchable than many expected rolls into a rivalry matchup Thursday on short rest for a visit with a former MVP quarterback.

Jerod Mayo’s squad is only halfway through this difficult opening four-game stretch with back-to-back road games looming, first at the New York Jets on Thursday night, then in San Francisco against the 49ers next week. But the good so far (Keion White, the running game, no turnovers) has about matched the bad (the offensive line, the pass rush, the wide receivers), which is a win considering how low the preseason expectations were for this team.

Still, this two-game stretch will reveal plenty about the Patriots. So let’s dive into what to expect on “Thursday Night Football.”

What I’ll be watching

Jacoby Brissett. Two things can be true about the starting quarterback so far. First, he’s been solid at everything the Patriots wanted him to do — getting the team into the right play, avoiding turnovers and evading the opposing pass rush as much as possible. That’s why his QBR and adjusted expected points added per play rank him slightly above average through two weeks.

But second, the Patriots have no semblance of a downfield passing game even though Brissett has had success at hitting explosive plays in the past. Of course, there are plenty of reasons for that. It’s hard to connect on downfield passes when the offensive line struggles to block long enough and the wide receivers can’t get open downfield. That’s a recipe for disaster.

Still, I’ll be watching Brissett in this game because I want to see whether he’s developing scars from the frequent pressure he’s under. Will he leave the pocket quickly and give up on downfield chances because he’s expecting to get crushed? Or will he give those plays a chance even if it means taking hits?

Patriots Wednesday injury report and #NEvsNYJ game statuses: https://t.co/FEPqnrhNmq pic.twitter.com/57mm9DYnQ8

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 18, 2024

Biggest concern

The offensive line. Everyone knows it’s an issue: coaches, players, fans. Everyone.

The Patriots are the second-worst team in the NFL at protecting the quarterback based on pressure rate, behind only the Cleveland Browns. What’s especially scary for the Patriots in this matchup is that the Jets defense ranks third in pressure rate despite blitzing only 20 percent of the time, the 25th most in the league. (Though the Jets did lose starting defensive end Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending injury this week.)

Long story short, the Patriots better get rid of the ball quickly. Otherwise, Brissett could be in for a long night.

Biggest reason for optimism

The running game. The Patriots told anyone who would listen they wanted to be one of the best rushing teams in the league this season, and even if that was met with some external skepticism, they’re backing it up.

Through two weeks, the Pats rank fourth in rushing yards (355) and 13th in yards per rush (4.7) despite facing an eight-man box on 28 percent of their rushes, fifth most in the league.

The Jets run defense, on the other hand, is slightly below average. It ranks 16th in rushing success rate allowed and 20th in yards per carry allowed (4.7).

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What to watch on offense

Demario Douglas. The second-year wide receiver voiced some frustration this week, expressing that he feels he’s getting open despite receiving only three targets combined over the first two games. He’s easily the Patriots’ most explosive wide receiver with the ball in his hands, which is why it’s mystifying that he hasn’t gotten the ball more.

He led the team in receiving yards as a rookie last year, then dominated in training camp. Now he’s disappearing during games. That needs to change this week, especially since he’s great on short and underneath routes, the kind Brissett needs to hit with the pass rush likely swarming Thursday night.

What to watch on defense

Stopping the run. The Patriots run defense has been good this season, but the loss of linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley is significant in this area. With him and Davon Godchaux, the Patriots had a strong duo of run stuffers. Now, a lot will fall on Godchaux to ensure the group doesn’t slip.

Raekwon McMillan will get the first shot at replacing Bentley, and he was great at stopping the run in 2018 and 2019 in Miami. But he has dealt with injuries since then, so it’ll be interesting to see whether he’s still up to the task against a Jets offense that boasts two good running backs, Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.

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Stat to know

2.46 seconds: That’s how quickly Aaron Rodgers has gotten the ball out of his hands on average this season. That’s fast. Part of what has made Rodgers successful throughout his career is his ability to buy time, hold on to the ball and wait for receivers to get open. So maybe this is just a two-game anomaly. Or maybe it’s a new point of focus for the 40-year-old.

Either way, the ball is coming out incredibly quickly. He ranks third in the NFL in that statistic this season despite only ranking in the top 10 once since Next Gen Stats started tracking it in 2018.

Prediction

Jets 20, Patriots 17. If this is a game won in the trenches, that won’t bode well for the Patriots. The Jets have the better offensive and defensive line. But “Thursday Night Football” can be a bit sloppy, which has led to some upsets in the past. I’ve got the Pats hanging around in a low-scoring game with another strong rushing performance that puts together a couple of long drives. But Rodgers outduels Brissett in the fourth quarter.

(Photo: David Butler II / Imagn Images)

Chad Graff is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the New England Patriots since 2022 after five years on the Minnesota Vikings beat. Graff joined The Athletic in January 2018 after covering a bit of everything for the St. Paul Pioneer Press. He won the Pro Football Writers of America’s 2022 Bob Oates Award for beat writing. He's a New Hampshire native and an adjunct professor of journalism at the University of New Hampshire. Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadGraff