Big 12 Chaos Meter: Is BYU for real? Cougars host K-State in pivotal late-night matchup (original) (raw)
At Big 12 media days in July, commissioner Brett Yormark stood on stage at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and lauded the league’s parity, boasted about the Big 12’s depth and competitiveness and declared that “every week will matter.” That begins now, with conference play finally here.
This week’s Big 12 chaos meter: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
With 12 of the league’s 16 teams playing a conference game, the road to AT&T Stadium for the Big 12 Championship Game is underway. This weekend should be filled with nailbiters: Every one of the intraconference games has a point spread of less than a touchdown. Buckle up.
College Football Playoff picture
The Big 12 champion will almost assuredly get an automatic berth as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Will the league get more than one team in? A check-in on the conference race:
✅ Holding steady: Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
📈 Trending up: UCF, Arizona State, BYU
📉 Trending down: Arizona, Kansas, TCU, West Virginia
📝 Work to do: Texas Tech, Colorado, Baylor
🚩 Long shots: Cincinnati, Houston
Let’s assess the Big 12’s top Week 4 matchups based on potential absurdity, but first, a look at this week’s big game.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM. Click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
Game of the Week
No. 12 Utah (3-0) at No. 14 Oklahoma State (3-0), 4 p.m., Fox
Two of the conference’s top three teams in the preseason poll fight for the early league lead. The Cowboys avoided a trap at Tulsa with a dominant win and begin what will probably be the league’s toughest two-game stretch: next week, they visit Kansas State. Mike Gundy lamented that he didn’t send the league’s schedule maker pecans for Christmas.
Mike Gundy on having to play Utah and Kansas State back to back:
“The commissioner is my buddy, but he doesn’t do the scheduling, so I’ve sent the wrong guy pecans for Christmas. I should’ve sent the scheduling guy pecans” pic.twitter.com/aJLKiscEYX
— BuffalOKstate (@BuffalOKstate) September 16, 2024
This is a spot Oklahoma State has thrived in lately: The Pokes have won seven consecutive home games against ranked opponents dating back to 2020. Utah has survived the last two weeks without starter Cam Rising, who left the Week 2 win over Baylor injured. Will he return for this one? Even if he doesn’t, the Utes defense, which leads the league on third downs, first downs, opponent passing efficiency and sacks, should keep them in it.
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Line: Utah -2.5
High chaos potential
No. 13 Kansas State (3-0) at BYU (3-0), 10:30 p.m., ESPN
One of the Big 12 favorites makes a 1,000-mile trek for a late kickoff in Provo. CougarTails after dark! K-State made a statement in its convincing win over Arizona a week ago and enters league play with momentum. But the Cougars have also been impressive. Kalani Sitake is convinced this year’s 3-0 is different than last year’s, when his team finished 5-7. A BYU win here would get the rest of the league’s attention.
“If you guys think they haven’t made any progress from last year to now, that’s your opinion,” he told reporters this week. “We’ll show it. I think people can realize that we’re a different team than last year’s team.”
BYU is sporting throwback white jerseys and rolling out vanilla frosting on the CougarTails to match.
The team is in throwback white jerseys this weekend and BYU dining is debuting a new CougarTail to match!
Half of the CougarTails will be white vanilla frosting and the other half will be the original maple frosting. #GoCougs pic.twitter.com/fFOPVdlk55
— BYU (@BYU) September 18, 2024
Chaos potential: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: Kansas State -6.5
Arizona State (3-0) at Texas Tech (2-1), 3:30 p.m., FS1
This feels like the beginning of a potentially fun series between the new conference mates. Two energetic coaches, Kenny Dillingham and Joey McGuire, are trying to upend the league’s hierarchy. The last time these programs played — in 2016 and 2017 — the scores were 68-55 and 52-45.
The over/under here is 60.5, so it’s not expected to get too wild, but it’s a compelling matchup. Texas Tech had a nice palate cleanser by dominating an overmatched North Texas to rebound from a rough start. Arizona State earned a hard-fought win at Texas State and could make a statement with a Big 12 road victory here.
It’s a great running back matchup with Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks, who can do it all, and Arizona State’s bowling ball, Cam Skattebo. Prayers for anyone who has to tackle him.
Cam Skattebo LOVES contact
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 12, 2024
Chaos potential: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: Texas Tech -3
TCU (2-1) at SMU (2-1), 5 p.m., The CW
The Battle for the Iron Skillet has been spicy in recent years. From a flag-planting and a scuffle to vitriol from SMU faithful toward Sonny Dykes in his return to the Hilltop after leaving for rival TCU, this series hasn’t lacked drama.
This will be the second time Dykes and Rhett Lashlee — his former offensive coordinator at SMU — square off. TCU won by 17 a year ago.
Neither team is in a great spot. SMU made a quarterback change from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings while the Horned Frogs are reeling after blowing an 18-point second-half lead to UCF.
With this game on the CW between former Southwest Conference rivals, an old-school late 1980s Raycom graphics package feels appropriate.
Chaos potential: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: TCU -3
Medium chaos potential
Baylor (2-1) at Colorado (2-1), 8 p.m., Fox
You may be disappointed to know we will not hear the level of trash talk coming into this one that Colorado’s last opponent, Colorado State, brought. Baylor coach Dave Aranda is too zen for that, instead spending this week complimenting Shedeur Sanders and Coach Prime.
But maybe this is a different Baylor and a different Aranda. He showed a fiery disposition we rarely see last week against Air Force. The result, a 31-3 win.
More of this Aranda please. I will run through a wall for "rip someone's face off" Aranda. pic.twitter.com/968G01IYna
— 🐻Brian Horn🌵 (@bhorn8956) September 15, 2024
The Buffs, after rebounding from their whupping at Nebraska with a comfortable win over Colorado State, have a chance to be taken seriously if they can win their Big 12 opener. And if you tune into this one, do yourself a favor and marvel at what Travis Hunter is doing: playing elite ball on offense and defense while taking nary a breather.
Travis Hunter DOES IT ALL. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/gFnZ7NFqmw
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 18, 2024
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Line: Colorado -1.5
Kansas (1-2) at West Virginia (1-2), Noon, ESPN2
An early-season anxiety bowl for two teams that have fallen short of expectations out of the gate. A healthy Jalon Daniels has not been the boost the Jayhawks believed it would be, as he has thrown six interceptions, including five in Kansas’ two consecutive losses. West Virginia is smarting after losing a heartbreaker to Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. Neal Brown’s future is once again a talking point among the fan base after he put it to bed by winning nine games last year.
Though the Big 12 can be zany and fun, this game is chock full of pressure — a must win for teams that hoped to be in league title game contention.
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Line: West Virginia -2.5
Low chaos potential
Houston (1-2) at Cincinnati (2–1), Noon, FS1
The last time the Coogs trekked to Cincy — in the 2021 American Athletic Conference Championship Game — things were much different. Dana Holgorsen and Luke Fickell were the coaches, the Bearcats went to the College Football Playoff and Houston beat Auburn that winter to finish 12-2. Both were humbled in their inaugural Big 12 campaigns last year and are trying to rebuild under first-year coach Willie Fritz and second-year coach Scott Satterfield, respectively.
Neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts and have yet to hit 35 points against an FBS opponent, and the over/under (46.5) reflects that. This should be a low-scoring scrum. One motivating factor for the Cougars (other than the fact that Cincinnati has beaten them four straight) is the ice cream truck they get to enjoy every Tuesday after victories.
After @UHCougarFB wins, they get ice cream truck pic.twitter.com/UDO6k5D2Rv
— Joseph Duarte (@Joseph_Duarte) September 17, 2024
Chaos potential: 2/5 🤯🤯
Line: Cincinnati -3.5
Arkansas State (2-1) at No. 20 Iowa State (2-0), 2 p.m., ESPN+
This should be academic for the Cyclones. The benefit of a week off to prevent an emotional hangover from the Week 2 comeback win over Iowa, plus the team’s depth and experience, should position them well to take care of business in this one.
Chaos potential: 1/5 🤯
Line: Iowa State -21.5
(Photo of Jake Retzlaff: Troy Babbitt / USA Today)
Sam Khan Jr. is a senior writer for The Athletic covering college football and recruiting primarily in Texas. Previously, he spent eight years covering college sports at ESPN.com and seven years as a sports reporter at the Houston Chronicle. A native Houstonian, Sam graduated from the University of Houston. Follow Sam on Twitter @skhanjr