NFL Week 18 picks against the spread: Can Russell Wilson, Steelers right the ship? (original) (raw)
You gotta love Week 18, when the likes of Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo and Mitch Trubisky come out of the shadows to lead their teams through 60 minutes of meaningless football. Most of the games this week do not have playoff implications, which of course means there will be a lot fewer bets …
Ha!
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There are teams such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are playing for a division title or a better playoff seeding or just to have more of an idea of what to do with Russell Wilson. He has been a surprisingly great fit with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers this season but has fallen off of late with three straight losses (albeit against three of the league’s best teams) thanks to two interceptions and two fumbles against three touchdowns in those games.
Wilson played for loose change this season because the Denver Broncos were still paying him off from that ridiculous contract two years ago. But he is set to become a free agent (as is Steelers backup Justin Fields), so we’ll find out how much the Steelers really love Wilson.
You may have forgotten just how bad the quarterbacking has been in Pittsburgh. Wilson has 15 touchdown passes in 10 starts, and that’s more than the Steelers had in each of the last two seasons (13 and 12). Tomlin said this week that Wilson needs to cut back on the turnovers, and decided to absolve receiver George Pickens of any blame on the interception against the Kansas City Chiefs.
While the division title seems out of reach (the Steelers would need the Cleveland Browns to beat the Baltimore Ravens in the earlier of Saturday’s two games), the Steelers can lock up the No. 5 seed with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals. That would give them the Houston Texans in the first round instead of the Ravens, so it would be a good time for Wilson to right the ship if he plans to stay on it.
Last week’s record: 9-7 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets.
Season record: 115-138-3 against the spread, 38-45-2 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-17.5) | 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC/ESPN
Fans in Baltimore were upset that the Ravens were playing before the Steelers rather than at the same time, but the league basically said, “Pipe down, you’re playing the Browns, enjoy your AFC North crown.” The Browns actually beat the Ravens in the first meeting this season, but that was peak Jameis Winston. He has since thrown a ton of interceptions and been benched — though that was more because the Browns waved the white flag. Dorian Thompson-Robinson started the last two games and may be the worst NFL starting QB since Paxton Lynch and now Week 18 brings Bailey Zappe onto the field. While the Browns defense does a pretty good of containing Lamar Jackson, they have no answers against the pass. Zay Flowers had seven catches for 115 yards in the first matchup, while tight end Mark Andrews’ 149.9 target passer rating is the best among NFL receivers and tight ends since Week 9.
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Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC/ESPN
Everyone loves the Bengals again (Joe Burrow for MVP!), with one of the more popular theories being that the Chiefs want to lose to the Broncos on Sunday to keep the Bengals out of the playoffs. Because no one wants to face Burrow and the Bengals in the playoffs! Well … if the Chiefs were to face the Bengals in the playoffs, that would mean the Bengals knocked off the Bills — which I am sure the Chiefs are cool with. I would also argue that most teams wouldn’t mind going up against the Bengals defense in the playoffs. Wilson threw for 414 yards in a win over the Bengals a month ago.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Go figure. The Falcons’ benching of Kirk Cousins not only sparked their offense but also somehow woke up their pass rush. The Falcons’ defense leads the NFL in sacks (21) and havoc rate (23.7 percent) since Week 13. (Havoc is a tackle for a loss, forced fumble, interception, pass breakup or sack). The Panthers, meanwhile, have had their moments but their defense is hanging on by a thread and has no one who can stop the Falcons running backs or cover Drake London or Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have to win to have a chance to get into the playoffs.
Drake London and Michael Penix Jr. should have their way against the Panthers. (Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)
Washington Commanders (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
We got lucky with the Commanders covering the spread in overtime last week, and we can thank Jayden Daniels. He threw three touchdown passes and ran for 127 yards on 16 attempts, setting career highs in both rushing yards over expectation (+42) and success rate (81.3 percent). It will be interesting to see how long the Commanders leave Daniels out there on Sunday, given they’re only playing for a No. 6 playoff seed and the Cowboys have a dangerous pass rush. As for the Cowboys, their offense looked terrible without CeeDee Lamb last week but should have a chance to establish Rico Dowdle against a suspect Commanders run defense. Take the points.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
If not for Karl Brooks’ blocked field goal at the buzzer in Week 11 against the Bears, the Packers would be 0-5 against NFC North teams. While they should clearly beat the Bears this week — Chicago has never had a lead in interim coach Thomas Brown’s four games — the question is by how much? Josh Jacobs will have some nice runs but I can see him hitting the showers early as the Packers are only playing for the No. 6 seed — and may not have to break a big sweat to do it. Caleb Williams did not complete a single pass beyond 6 yards downfield until the final drive on Dec. 26 against the Seahawks, so those taking the points hope he is a bit more aggressive here.
The pick: Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Colts defense put up an embarrassing effort against the Giants last week and has been ripped all week. Same with quarterback Anthony Richardson, who may or not be back from back spasms to prove to fans and pundits that he is all in. I am on the Colts big either way, though I would prefer backup Joe Flacco throwing to Michael Pittman Jr. and the receivers rather than Richardson bulling forward. The Jaguars did beat the Colts in the first matchup but that was with Trevor Lawrence at QB and not Mac Jones. The Colts will stack the box and force Jones to beat them on third down. And this week, they will even try to tackle people.
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Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New England Patriots | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
What a great week to be Mitch Trubisky. You get to pick up a lobster roll after meetings on Saturday, and then you step in for Josh Allen and face a Patriots team that ranks last in sacks (three) and pressure percentage (24.2 percent) since Week 11. The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed and will rest their starters, but they have some good depth — especially at running back. The Patriots were embarrassed at home last week, and while you would expect a better effort (see the pride pick with Colts above), it’s not clear if the players care if Jerod Mayo gets fired or not. The Giants blew the No. 1 draft pick by winning last week, but the Patriots hold onto that baby, nice and tight.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Saquon Barkley — who has the second-highest total rush EPA in the past 25 seasons at 53.16 (Shaun Alexander in 2005 had a 54.30) — is “probably” sitting this one out rather than pissing off Eric Dickerson and breaking his NFL record. Hey, rest is important as the Eagles are locked into the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The point spread dropped a full point immediately after the news hit Wednesday morning, and will probably drop some more.
Jalen Hurts is still in the concussion protocol and Kenny Pickett has a ribs injury, so Tanner McKee may get the start at QB for the Eagles. Hmmm … how bad do I want to fade Drew Lock, who turned in the best EPA per dropback rate (1.18) in the NFL this season last week for the Giants? This after being dreadful in his first three starts this season. Pretty bad.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Saints said goodbye to their home fans last week with a pretty feeble effort against the Raiders, and they are missing eight of their top 10 players from the season opener. Are they going to be motivated to chase around a desperate Buccaneers team that put up 51 points against them in October? The big point spread (and the public being on the Buccaneers) would normally push me toward the Saints, but I think New Orleans QB Spencer Rattler stinks and the Buccaneers’ depth at running back pays off for backers.
Houston Texans (-1) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Texans have nothing to play for as they are locked into the No. 4 seed, but coach DeMeco Ryans said he will be playing his starters. It could be just long enough to wash out the bad taste from the 31-2 loss to the Ravens. The line moved five points after Ryans said that, so now you at least have to ponder taking the Titans — the worst team in the league against the spread at 2-14. Or, better yet, ponder going against the Texans again. Since Week 13, Houston’s defense ranks last in splash plays (69), 29th in snaps per splash play (3.8) and tied for 30th in sacks (five). And back in Week 12, the Titans outgained the Texans 369 yards to 260 in a 32-27 win.
The pick: Titans
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The 49ers were all in for the Monday night game against the Lions, before falling short in the end. Now, having clinched last place in the NFC West, they turn to Joshua Dobbs at QB, filling in for an injured Brock Purdy. The Cardinals are also done this season, having lost five out of six games after being in first place. Kyler Murray has been brutal over that stretch (five passing TDs, eight interceptions, two fumbles), but the 49ers defense ranks 31st in turnover margin at minus-7 and opposing passer rating at 109.4 over that same span. The Cardinals defense, on the other hand, has kept Murray in games and leads the NFL with 121 splash plays since Week 13.
The pick: Cardinals
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-10.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Chiefs have no skin in this game, but several teams do and hope that Carson Wentz is not terrible. Well, he wasn’t terrible a year ago in his only start for the Rams. Wentz had a 0.18 EPA per dropback rate, 99.8 passer rating. 0.41 EPA per dropback rate against the blitz and 70.8 percent completion rate in the 21-20 win over the 49ers in a Week 18 game in which both teams rested their starters. The Broncos have been overachieving all season and should beat the Chiefs backups, but I have no interest in laying that many points against a non-terrible Wentz.
The pick: Chiefs
Carson Wentz is looking for a closing week win for the second straight season. (Denny Medley / USA Today)
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If the Steelers win Saturday, the Chargers have nothing to play for on Sunday, as they will be locked into the No. 6 seed. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he won’t rest his starters, but he didn’t say how long they would play. The Raiders have won two games in a row after losing 10 straight, but face a major talent upgrade from the Jaguars and Saints. Their defense has been gritty even after the loss of Maxx Crosby (and four other starters). It ranks second since Week 11 in havoc rate at 20.7 percent, and No. 1 in EPA per dropback in the past four weeks. And the Raiders offense is not terrible anymore, thanks to the emergence of veteran running back Ameer Abdullah to help out stud rookie tight end Brock Bowers. Take the points.
The pick: Raiders
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Rams have nothing to play for, so we’ll learn if Jimmy Garoppolo is totally washed up or if his foot and back injuries were the reason he was awful for the Raiders last season. The Seahawks are eliminated, but QB Geno Smith is playing for $6 million in contract incentives. That seems like a good reason to take the Seahawks against a Rams defense taking its foot off the gas. (The Rams have the best red zone defense since Week 11 with a 40.9 percent TD rate allowed.)
The pick: Seahawks
Miami Dolphins (-1) at New York Jets | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
If Tua Tagovailoa can’t play because of a hip injury, Tyler Huntley will start for the Dolphins — and he pulled a Drew Lock last week. Huntley produced career highs in EPA per dropback (0.24), passer rating (115.5), completion percentage (84.6 percent) and EPA per dropback against the blitz (0.61) in the win over the Browns. I would lean toward the Jets for that reason, especially because the Dolphins won’t get a lot of pressure on Aaron Rodgers … but it looked to me like the Jets packed it in last week. And since Week 13, their defense ranks tied for 30th in sacks (five), 29th in EPA per play (-0.13) and EPA per drive (-0.87) and 31st in EPA per pass (-0.29).
The pick: Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
I am as big a sucker for the Dan Campbell speeches and the gutsy calls as the next guy, and I respected the Lions’ decision to go all out against the 49ers on Monday despite the game meaning nothing. And winning on the same field where they were eliminated last year clearly meant something to the players, But I think they are going to pay for the decision when they host the Vikings on a short week. The Lions defense was already beat up and allowed 34 points to a 49ers team playing with three backup offensive lineman. And it ranks last in the league in red zone TD efficiency (76.2 percent) and opposing passer rating (109.7) since Week 13. The Lions offense is so good that it may not matter, but I will take the three points just in case it does.
The pick: Vikings
Best bets: We are big on the gut feelings this week, with the Steelers, Colts and Cardinals taking care of business against the likes of the Bengals, Jaguars and 49ers, respectively, while the Vikings prevail over the Lions. Finally, we like the Bills backups to send out the Patriots in a further humiliating fashion.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Not many choices this week. We’ll pass on the Chiefs winning outright and go with the Raiders at home (+5 ATS, +185 moneyline) over the Chargers.
— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder.
(Top photo: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)